15721 Plum Brook Dr · Cut and Shoot, TX 77303

$220,740

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,707 sqft · SingleFamily · 20 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $129/sqft · 20% below area Est $277k · 20% under $36/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

NEW! Lennar Core Watermill "Oxford" Plan with Elevation "C" in Sweetwater Ridge! This well-planned single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• THREE SECONDARY BEDROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community managed by SBB Community Management; Annual association fee of $432

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction (under construction); Single-story entry (all main rooms listed on the first floor)
• Construction: Built in 2026; Cement siding construction; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot setting; Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (15x15); Three additional first-floor bedrooms (10x11, 10x10, 10x10)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: 7 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $221k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $136 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (2.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (2.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.8% in Cut and Shoot — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,326 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 714 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $214,916 (2.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.65%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $277,490
• List price: $220,740
• Delta: -20.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15705 Plum Brook Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,707 (0%)	2mo	$279,990	$164	99
15697 Plum Brook Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,707 (0%)	2mo	$277,990	$163	98
15712 Plum Brook Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,707 (0%)	1mo	$277,990	$163	98
15701 Plum Brook Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,667 (-2%)	1mo	$275,990	$166	95
15690 Plum Brook Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,667 (-2%)	3mo	$277,990	$167	93
16423 Blossom Grove Dr	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,793 (+5%)	0mo	$289,900	$162	89
15713 Plum Brook Dr	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,891 (+11%)	1mo	$287,990	$152	79
15704 Plum Brook Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,891 (+11%)	2mo	$287,990	$152	79
15636 Plum Brook Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,552 (-9%)	2mo	$279,900	$180	77
15709 Plum Brook Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,474 (-14%)	1mo	$267,990	$182	71
15716 Plum Brook Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,474 (-14%)	0mo	$269,990	$183	71
15700 Plum Brook Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,474 (-14%)	1mo	$269,991	$183	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-33,329
• Equity at exit: $32,913

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-41,959
• Equity at exit: $19,086

Cash invested: $61,807 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77303

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 714
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,149 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,158
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$276 /mo · $3,311/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$36
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $136

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,977

Max offer price $220,740

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $289	-5% $213	+0% $136	+5% $60	+10% $-16
Rent	-10% $-33	-5% $51	+0% $136	+5% $221	+10% $306
Rate	-1.0pp $248	-0.5pp $192	base $136	+0.5pp $79	+1.0pp $21

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,185
• Closing costs: $6,622
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15663 Plum Brook Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1306	$1,610	$1.23	2d	1	0.02mi
15793 Bayberry Trace Dr Conroe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1639	$2,240	$1.37	2d	1	0.22mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $36 · $432/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-02
   days on market $220,740 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $220,740 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $220,740 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-05-13
   listed $224,740 Active 522-char remark
5. 2026-05-12
   listed $224,740 Active 401-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,790
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,365
• − Property taxes: −$3,311
• − Insurance: −$1,104
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,063
• − Management: −$2,063
• − HOA: −$432
• − Depreciation: −$6,422
• Taxable loss: −$1,970
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$473
• After-tax cash flow: $2,109/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 14 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This well-maintained single-family home with a spacious open floorplan is ready for move-in. It offers a good condition with minor updates that can significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Updating the flooring in the bedrooms — Carpet can be replaced with hardwood or tile for a more modern look and easier maintenance.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal and functionality.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can improve convenience and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers and renters.
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can enhance curb appeal and attract more potential buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the bedrooms — Carpet can be replaced with hardwood or tile for a more modern look and easier maintenance. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal and functionality. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can improve convenience and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can enhance curb appeal and attract more potential buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cut and Shoot

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1326
• US rank: #22835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,854
• Household income: $75,348
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 464.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 31%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.71%
• Current HPI: 269.5367
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.31%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $220,740 HARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $224,740 HARMLS