3707 Bay Tree Rd · Lynn Haven, FL 32444

$350,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,043 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 142 Days on market

Built 2005 9,342 sqft lot $171/sqft · 7% below area Est $378k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• Cash flow +9.2/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This spacious home is located in the wonderful subdivision of The Hammocks, centrally located to shopping and dining and this subdivision has just recently renovated the community pool. The home features vaulted ceilings, an open floor plan concept, tray ceiling in the master bedroom, huge soaking tub, brand new water heater and more. The converted garage created the 5th bedroom, yet still allows enough storage area to be practical. The 5th bedroom has a barn door on the closet entry and its own mini split heat and air system and would serve nicely as a 5th bedroom or easily convert to a mother-in-law suite since the water heater is accessible in that room. The fully fenced backyard boasts a beautiful vinyl white fence as well as covered patio area to enjoy a nice morning or evening relaxation time. Call for an appointment to view!

Key facts

• Vinyl white fence
• Converted garage
• Barn door

Tags

• CONVERTED GARAGE
• BARN DOOR
• MINI SPLIT HEAT AND AIR SYSTEM
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• VINYL WHITE FENCE
• COVERED PATIO AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-261 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $304k (13.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (22.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $270k (22.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.5% in Lynn Haven — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#96 in FL, #1,472 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hiland Park Elementary School (math 42% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,560 of 2,144 statewide, top 73%, 643 students, 56% FRL); Mowat Middle School (math 49% / reading 51%, grade C, #254 of 571 statewide, top 45%, 868 students, 49% FRL); A. Crawford Mosley High School (math 51% / reading 55%, grade C-, #148 of 667 statewide, top 23%, 1,901 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 47% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 199 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($308k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $49k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $270,116 (22.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.20%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $377,684
• List price: $350,000
• Delta: -7.33%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3463 Cherry Ridge Rd	0.14mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,067 (+1%)	3mo	$349,000	$169	82
3611 Cherry Ridge Ct	0.11mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,234 (+9%)	9mo	$360,000	$161	65
3517 Azalea Way	0.35mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,903 (-7%)	3mo	$365,000	$192	65
3602 Willow Ridge Rd	0.09mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,260 (+11%)	11mo	$350,000	$155	64
3542 Azalea Way	0.27mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,817 (-11%)	9mo	$355,000	$195	57
3738 Bay Tree Ct	0.15mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,199 (+8%)	21mo	$489,900	$223	51
2809 Edward Ave	0.53mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,219 (+9%)	12mo	$306,000	$138	42
2305 Game Farm Rd	0.47mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,832 (-10%)	18mo	$325,000	$177	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-74,610
• Equity at exit: $52,186

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-91,544
• Equity at exit: $30,262

Cash invested: $98,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32444

• Home prices YoY: -29.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 199
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,701 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$414 /mo · $4,964/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$567
• Net cashflow: $-261

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,032

Max offer price $303,894

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-63	-5% $-162	+0% $-261	+5% $-360	+10% $-459
Rent	-10% $-474	-5% $-368	+0% $-261	+5% $-154	+10% $-48
Rate	-1.0pp $-85	-0.5pp $-172	base $-261	+0.5pp $-352	+1.0pp $-444

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,500
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3209 Pleasant Hill Rd Lynn Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	2376	$2,995	$1.26	22d	1	0.33mi
2433 Wakulla Ave Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1612	$1,600	$0.99	15d	1	1.18mi
2416 Camryns Xing Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1867	$2,100	$1.12	22d	1	1.26mi
2305 Minnesota Ave Lynn Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1692	$1,950	$1.15	15d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $350,000 Active 142 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $350,000 Active 140 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $350,000 Active 139 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $350,000 Active 138 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $350,000 Active 137 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $350,000 Active 136 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $350,000 Active 134 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $350,000 Active 133 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $350,000 Active 131 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $350,000 Active 130 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $350,000 Active 129 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $350,000 Active 128 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $350,000 Active 125 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $350,000 Active 124 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $350,000 Active 123 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $350,000 Active 122 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $350,000 Active 121 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $350,000 Active 120 DOM
19. 2026-05-11
    price $350,000 843-char remark

    Show marketing remark (843 chars)

    This spacious home is located in the wonderful subdivision of The Hammocks, centrally located to shopping and dining and this subdivision has just recently renovated the community pool. The home features vaulted ceilings, an open floor plan concept, tray ceiling in the master bedroom, huge soaking tub, brand new water heater and more. The converted garage created the 5th bedroom, yet still allows enough storage area to be practical. The 5th bedroom has a barn door on the closet entry and its own mini split heat and air system and would serve nicely as a 5th bedroom or easily convert to a mother-in-law suite since the water heater is accessible in that room. The fully fenced backyard boasts a beautiful vinyl white fence as well as covered patio area to enjoy a nice morning or evening relaxation time. Call for an appointment to view!

20. 2026-05-05
    price $355,000 843-char remark

    Show marketing remark (843 chars)

    This spacious home is located in the wonderful subdivision of The Hammocks, centrally located to shopping and dining and this subdivision has just recently renovated the community pool. The home features vaulted ceilings, an open floor plan concept, tray ceiling in the master bedroom, huge soaking tub, brand new water heater and more. The converted garage created the 5th bedroom, yet still allows enough storage area to be practical. The 5th bedroom has a barn door on the closet entry and its own mini split heat and air system and would serve nicely as a 5th bedroom or easily convert to a mother-in-law suite since the water heater is accessible in that room. The fully fenced backyard boasts a beautiful vinyl white fence as well as covered patio area to enjoy a nice morning or evening relaxation time. Call for an appointment to view!

21. 2026-02-10
    price $395,000 843-char remark

    Show marketing remark (843 chars)

    This spacious home is located in the wonderful subdivision of The Hammocks, centrally located to shopping and dining and this subdivision has just recently renovated the community pool. The home features vaulted ceilings, an open floor plan concept, tray ceiling in the master bedroom, huge soaking tub, brand new water heater and more. The converted garage created the 5th bedroom, yet still allows enough storage area to be practical. The 5th bedroom has a barn door on the closet entry and its own mini split heat and air system and would serve nicely as a 5th bedroom or easily convert to a mother-in-law suite since the water heater is accessible in that room. The fully fenced backyard boasts a beautiful vinyl white fence as well as covered patio area to enjoy a nice morning or evening relaxation time. Call for an appointment to view!

22. 2026-01-30
    listed $399,000 Active 843-char remark

    Show marketing remark (843 chars)

    This spacious home is located in the wonderful subdivision of The Hammocks, centrally located to shopping and dining and this subdivision has just recently renovated the community pool. The home features vaulted ceilings, an open floor plan concept, tray ceiling in the master bedroom, huge soaking tub, brand new water heater and more. The converted garage created the 5th bedroom, yet still allows enough storage area to be practical. The 5th bedroom has a barn door on the closet entry and its own mini split heat and air system and would serve nicely as a 5th bedroom or easily convert to a mother-in-law suite since the water heater is accessible in that room. The fully fenced backyard boasts a beautiful vinyl white fence as well as covered patio area to enjoy a nice morning or evening relaxation time. Call for an appointment to view!

23. 2025-07-15
    historical
24. 2025-06-30
    price $330,000
25. 2025-06-26
    price $343,000
26. 2025-05-12
    price $345,000
27. 2025-05-07
    price $355,000
28. 2025-04-27
    price $360,000
29. 2025-04-02
    price $365,000
30. 2025-03-05
    price $414,900
31. 2025-02-07
    price $424,900
32. 2024-12-13
    listed $429,900 Active
33. 2024-09-06
    historical
34. 2024-08-16
    price $389,900
35. 2024-08-05
    price $399,900
36. 2024-07-16
    price $425,000
37. 2024-07-15
    price $439,000
38. 2024-06-28
    listed $449,000 Active
39. 2022-02-16
    soldstatus $340,000
40. 2022-02-15
    soldstatus $340,000 Closed
41. 2021-12-14
    historical
42. 2021-12-09
    historical
43. 2021-09-26
    listed $339,750
44. 2019-02-15
    soldstatus $267,500
45. 2019-02-15
    soldstatus $267,929
46. 2019-01-09
    listed $285,500
47. 2010-03-31
    soldstatus $209,900
48. 2010-03-31
    soldstatus $209,900
49. 2009-07-20
    listed $209,900
50. 2006-10-04
    listed $309,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,964 · $414/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,964 · $414/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,414
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$4,964
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,593
• − Management: −$2,593
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable loss: −$9,273
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,226
• After-tax cash flow: $-906/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lynn Haven

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #96
• US rank: #1472

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lynn Haven, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 21,459
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,459
• Household income: $83,160
• Rent vs Own: 30.2% rent · 69.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 430.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 8% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -108.08%
• Current HPI: 263.5418
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.52%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+775.0% since first listed

36 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $350,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $355,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $395,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-01-30 Listed $399,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-07-15 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2025-06-30 Price Changed $330,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-06-26 Price Changed $343,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-05-12 Price Changed $345,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-05-07 Price Changed $355,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-04-27 Price Changed $360,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-04-02 Price Changed $365,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-03-05 Price Changed $414,900 CPARMLS
• 2025-02-07 Price Changed $424,900 CPARMLS
• 2024-12-13 Listed $429,900 CPARMLS
• 2024-09-06 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2024-08-16 Price Changed $389,900 CPARMLS
• 2024-08-05 Price Changed $399,900 CPARMLS
• 2024-07-16 Price Changed $425,000 CPARMLS
• 2024-07-15 Price Changed $439,000 CPARMLS
• 2024-06-28 Listed $449,000 CPARMLS
• 2022-02-16 Sold (Public Records) $340,000 Public Records
• 2022-02-15 Sold (MLS) $340,000 CPARMLS
• 2021-12-14 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2021-12-09 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2021-09-26 Listed $339,750 CPARMLS
• 2019-02-15 Sold (Public Records) $267,929 Public Records
• 2019-02-15 Sold (MLS) $267,500 CPARMLS
• 2019-01-09 Listed $285,500 CPARMLS
• 2010-03-31 Sold (Public Records) $209,900 Public Records
• 2010-03-31 Sold (MLS) $209,900 CPARMLS
• 2009-07-20 Listed $209,900 CPARMLS
• 2006-10-04 Listed $309,900 CPARMLS
• 2005-02-10 Sold (MLS) $274,800 CPARMLS
• 2004-09-28 Listed $269,800 CPARMLS
• 2004-06-30 Sold (MLS) $36,000 CPARMLS
• 2003-12-01 Listed $40,000 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+8.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,964 · +16.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.