301 Main St · Middletown, MO 63359

$40,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,938 sqft · SingleFamily · 133 Days on market

Built 1900 0.66 ac lot Est $79k · 50% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Vintage 2-sty with large rooms. Beautiful wood staircase, most rooms have 10 inch wood trim. Upstairs rooms have 9 ft ceilings and 10 ft ceilings downstairs Needs work to restore it to original beauty. Qualifies for 203k rehab loan. Large yard on 4 lots. Sold as-is.

Key facts

• 0.66 acre lot
• Built 1900
• Listed 133 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential — Single Family Residence; Lot size approximately 0.6627 acres (source: public records)
• Financial info: Lease not considered; No second mortgage reported

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service by Ameren; Cable, electricity, natural gas, phone available
• Home design: Single family residence (house); Two levels; Fixer condition; Private ownership
• Construction: Frame and other construction materials; Asbestos shingle roof; Block foundation; Built area above grade: 1,938 (source: public records)
• Exterior features: Front porch; Garden; Panel and sliding doors; Back yard; Adjoins common ground and wooded area; City lot, cleared, front yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms total; 1 bedroom on the main level; 3 bedrooms on the upper level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main/upper levels)
• Heating & cooling: Other heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Gas cooktop; Fireplace (1) — other style

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $798 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#823 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Wellsville Middletown R-I (rural): math 25% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #433 of 535 in MO (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wellsville-Middletown Elem. (math 37% / reading 27%, grade F, #761 of 1,115 statewide, top 72%, 148 students, 60% FRL); Wellsville-Middletown Hs (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #247 of 521 statewide, top 55%, 163 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP; 47 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($277 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at -31% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $35,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 30.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 85.52%
• DSCR: 4.80
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $79,458
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
610 N Caldwell St	0.35mi	4/2.5	2,052 (+6%)	10mo	$85,000	$41	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.15% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 90.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.19×
• Total profit: $58,156
• Equity at exit: $20,626

10-year hold

• IRR: 89.5%
• Equity multiple: 12.87×
• Total profit: $132,903
• Equity at exit: $34,014

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63359

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 7
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,360 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $600/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$286
• Net cashflow: $798

Break-even live

Break-even rent $350

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 36%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $826	-5% $812	+0% $798	+5% $784	+10% $771
Rent	-10% $691	-5% $744	+0% $798	+5% $852	+10% $906
Rate	-1.0pp $818	-0.5pp $808	base $798	+0.5pp $788	+1.0pp $777

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $40,000 Active 133 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $40,000 Active 131 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $40,000 Active 130 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $40,000 Active 129 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $40,000 Active 128 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $40,000 Active 126 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $40,000 Active 125 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $40,000 Active 122 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $40,000 Active 121 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $40,000 Active 120 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $40,000 Active 118 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $40,000 Active 116 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $40,000 Active 115 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $40,000 Active 114 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $40,000 Active 113 DOM
16. 2026-02-09
    status Active
17. 2026-02-06
    status Active
18. 2025-10-23
    status Pending
19. 2025-10-22
    listed $40,000 Active
20. 2025-10-20
    historical $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,323
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$600
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,306
• − Management: −$1,306
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $9,507
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,282
• After-tax cash flow: $7,296/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wellsville Middletown R-I
• NCES district ID: 2931620
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,226
• Composite: 29.86/100
• National rank: #11693
• State rank: #433 of 535 in MO

Livability — Middletown

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #823
• US rank: #24464

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middletown, MO
• Population (ZIP): 1,384

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,582 people
• By 2030: 9,897 · -6.5%
• By 2040: 8,556 · -19.1%
• By 2050: 7,293 · -31.1%
• By 2075: 4,998 · -52.8%
• By 2100: 3,204 · -69.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.1) · D 19.5% · R 79.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.7pp toward R · 2008: -18.5pp · 2024: -60.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.1 2020: R+56.4 2016: R+55.4 2012: R+33.0 2008: R+18.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.15%
• Current HPI: 177.1148
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-09 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-06 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-23 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-22 Listed $40,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-20 Coming Soon $40,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid