2412 Connell St · Midland, TX 79701

$210,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 283 Days on market

Built 1953 6,229 sqft lot $140/sqft · 15% above area Est $183k · 15% over ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.3/30.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.9/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

CALLING ALL INVESTORS! THIS 4 BEDROOM 2 1/2 BATH IS AN AFFORDABLE INVESTMENT PROPERTY WITH BIG POTENTIAL! FEATURING VINYL FLOORING, OPEN KITCHEN/LIVING LAYOUT, REFRIGERATOR INCLUDED! LARGE FENCED FRONT AND BACK YARD GREAT LOCATION RIGHT OFF OF INTERSTATE 20!

Key facts

• Vinyl flooring
• 6,229 sq ft lot
• Built 1953

Tags

• VINYL FLOORING
• OPEN KITCHEN LIVING LAYOUT
• REFRIGERATOR INCLUDED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $540 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $210k).
• Recommended offer: $185k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 4.7% in Midland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#57 in TX, #2,192 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, commute D+.
• Midland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #477 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 113 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,504 units permitted in Midland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,412/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 938% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Midland County population projected at +83% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 283 days — a 12% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 283 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.01%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $183,278
• List price: $210,000
• Delta: 14.58%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.74% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-5,038
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $18,772
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79701

• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 113
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,412 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$177 /mo · $2,121/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$506
• Net cashflow: $540

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,728

Max offer price $210,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3114 S County Road 1193 Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1957	$2,500	$1.28	13d	1	0.91mi
2703 S County Road 1180 Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1566	$3,400	$2.17	44d	1	1.25mi
805 S Weatherford St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,300	$0.95	21d	1	1.27mi
1200 Albert Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	925	$2,442	$2.64	13d	311	1.33mi
1201 Albert Midland, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1037	$2,174	$2.10	13d	20	1.35mi
1509 Wayside Dr Midland, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	980	$1,292	$1.32	44d	1	1.43mi
1807 W Kentucky Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1696	$2,800	$1.65	21d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $210,000 Active 283 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $210,000 Active 282 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $210,000 Active 281 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $210,000 Active 280 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $210,000 Active 279 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $210,000 Active 277 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $210,000 Active 276 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $210,000 Active 274 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $210,000 Active 273 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $210,000 Active 272 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $210,000 Active 271 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $215,000 Active 267 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $215,000 Active 266 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $215,000 Active 265 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $215,000 Active 264 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $215,000 Active 263 DOM
17. 2025-09-23
    price $215,000 258-char remark

    Show marketing remark (258 chars)

    CALLING ALL INVESTORS! THIS 4 BEDROOM 2 1/2 BATH IS AN AFFORDABLE INVESTMENT PROPERTY WITH BIG POTENTIAL! FEATURING VINYL FLOORING, OPEN KITCHEN/LIVING LAYOUT, REFRIGERATOR INCLUDED! LARGE FENCED FRONT AND BACK YARD GREAT LOCATION RIGHT OFF OF INTERSTATE 20!

18. 2025-09-09
    listed $225,000 Active 258-char remark

    Show marketing remark (258 chars)

    CALLING ALL INVESTORS! THIS 4 BEDROOM 2 1/2 BATH IS AN AFFORDABLE INVESTMENT PROPERTY WITH BIG POTENTIAL! FEATURING VINYL FLOORING, OPEN KITCHEN/LIVING LAYOUT, REFRIGERATOR INCLUDED! LARGE FENCED FRONT AND BACK YARD GREAT LOCATION RIGHT OFF OF INTERSTATE 20!

19. 2023-05-10
    soldstatus
20. 2021-07-16
    soldstatus
21. 2001-10-24
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,121 · $177/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,843 · $320/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,722/yr (+$144/mo · 81.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,938
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$2,121
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,315
• − Management: −$2,315
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable income: $3,265
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$784
• After-tax cash flow: $5,692/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830570
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $63,457
• Composite: 31.63/100
• National rank: #5938
• State rank: #477 of 826 in TX

Livability — Midland

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #2192

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midland, TX
• County: Midland County · 168,494 people
• City population: 168,494
• Metro: Midland, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,131
• Household income: $57,346
• Rent vs Own: 33.0% rent · 67.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 938.0

Population outlook (Midland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 220,895 people
• By 2030: 253,667 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 325,498 · +47.4%
• By 2050: 404,168 · +83.0%
• By 2075: 609,802 · +176.1%
• By 2100: 760,172 · +244.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 61% Two or more races 28% White 27% Black 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 57%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Ukrainian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 44%

Political lean MEDSL · Midland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.5) · D 19.3% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -57.3pp · 2024: -60.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.5 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+61.5 2008: R+57.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -227.32%
• Current HPI: 234.6111
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.74%
• Metro: Midland, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-23 Price Changed $215,000 PBBOR
• 2025-09-09 Listed $225,000 PBBOR
• 2023-05-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-07-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-10-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,121 · -6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.