281 Crestwood Ave · Buffalo, NY 14216

$309,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,024 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1920 Est $304k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.8/30.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.6/15.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Fantastic and updated 2/2 North Buffalo Gem. Newer Carpets. Updated roof and electrical. Open floor plan. updated baths. Clean dry basement. 2 car detached garage has steel roof. Showings to accommodate tenants will only be at Open house Saturday July 22nd from 1pm-3pm, Open house Sunday July 23rd from 1pm-3pm, Open house Wednesday July 26th from 5:30pm-7:30pm. Offers due Friday July 28th by 5pm.

Key facts

• New copper pipes
• Remodeled kitchen
• Private street

Tags

• PRIVATE STREET
• SHORT DISTANCE TO HERTEL AVE
• RETAIL AND RESTAURANTS
• REMODELED KITCHEN
• INCREDIBLY REDONE BATH
• NEW COPPER PIPES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $483 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $296k (4.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $296k (4.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 91 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,955/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 1831% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($305k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $295,500 (4.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.67%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $303,600
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
301 Crestwood Ave	0.04mi	4/2.0	2,024 (0%)	3mo	$359,000	$177	96
19 Avery Ave	0.29mi	4/2.0	2,107 (+4%)	2mo	$275,000	$131	78
4 Avery Ave	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,940 (-4%)	11mo	$290,000	$149	72
27 Hobmoor Ave	0.42mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,140 (+6%)	3mo	$321,600	$150	63
49 Hobmoor Ave	0.45mi	4/2.0	1,894 (-6%)	10mo	$343,000	$181	60
397 Sanders Rd	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,804 (-11%)	5mo	$270,000	$150	60
41 Hartwell Rd	0.71mi	4/2.0	2,013 (-0%)	8mo	$285,000	$142	60
508 Linden Ave	0.59mi	4/2.0	1,856 (-8%)	4mo	$240,000	$129	56
21 Sanders Rd	0.51mi	4/2.0	1,859 (-8%)	10mo	$210,000	$113	54
432 Linden Ave	0.58mi	4/2.0	1,824 (-10%)	7mo	$312,150	$171	50
204 E Hazeltine Ave	0.48mi	4/2.0	1,733 (-14%)	9mo	$270,000	$156	46
180 Euclid Ave	0.58mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,836 (-9%)	7mo	$230,000	$125	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-17,671
• Equity at exit: $46,207

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $31,734
• Equity at exit: $26,794

Cash invested: $86,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14216

• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 17.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,955 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,625
• Tax from tax record: −$98 /mo · $1,171/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$621
• Net cashflow: $483

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,344

Max offer price $309,900

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $658	-5% $570	+0% $483	+5% $395	+10% $307
Rent	-10% $249	-5% $366	+0% $483	+5% $599	+10% $716
Rate	-1.0pp $639	-0.5pp $561	base $483	+0.5pp $402	+1.0pp $321

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$2,954
Total (2 units)			$2,955

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,475
• Closing costs: $9,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
359 Colvin Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2010	$2,100	$1.04	24d	1	0.17mi
309 N Park Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2560	$1,750	$0.68	15d	1	0.23mi
77 Lovering Ave #2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1450	$1,895	$1.31	44d	1	0.25mi
307 Sterling Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1632	$1,800	$1.10	4d	1	0.37mi
88 Commonwealth Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2710	$1,695	$0.63	12d	1	0.42mi
79 Commonwealth Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1450	$1,600	$1.10	24d	1	0.43mi
2514 Delaware Ave Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1620	$1,650	$1.02	2d	1	0.47mi
146 Wallace Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2706	$1,700	$0.63	44d	1	0.76mi
351 Stillwell Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2586	$1,800	$0.70	24d	1	1.05mi
163 Carmel Rd Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,800	$1.29	4d	1	1.15mi
202 Summit Ave Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2000	$2,400	$1.20	24d	1	1.16mi
172 Tremont Ave Kenmore, NY	3.0	1.5	1569	$2,500	$1.59	11d	1	1.23mi
139 Fordham Dr Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1453	$1,700	$1.17	24d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-25
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-04-18
   price $309,900
4. 2026-04-01
   listed $319,900 Active
5. 2025-10-29
   historical $1,395
6. 2025-10-01
   listed $1,395
7. 2023-10-04
   soldstatus $280,000
8. 2023-09-28
   soldstatus $280,000 Closed Sale or Rented 399-char remark

   Show marketing remark (399 chars)

   Fantastic and updated 2/2 North Buffalo Gem. Newer Carpets. Updated roof and electrical. Open floor plan. updated baths. Clean dry basement. 2 car detached garage has steel roof. Showings to accommodate tenants will only be at Open house Saturday July 22nd from 1pm-3pm, Open house Sunday July 23rd from 1pm-3pm, Open house Wednesday July 26th from 5:30pm-7:30pm. Offers due Friday July 28th by 5pm.

9. 2023-08-07
   status Pending Sale 399-char remark

   Show marketing remark (399 chars)

   Fantastic and updated 2/2 North Buffalo Gem. Newer Carpets. Updated roof and electrical. Open floor plan. updated baths. Clean dry basement. 2 car detached garage has steel roof. Showings to accommodate tenants will only be at Open house Saturday July 22nd from 1pm-3pm, Open house Sunday July 23rd from 1pm-3pm, Open house Wednesday July 26th from 5:30pm-7:30pm. Offers due Friday July 28th by 5pm.

10. 2023-08-02
    status Under Contract- Do Not Show 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    Fantastic and updated 2/2 North Buffalo Gem. Newer Carpets. Updated roof and electrical. Open floor plan. updated baths. Clean dry basement. 2 car detached garage has steel roof. Showings to accommodate tenants will only be at Open house Saturday July 22nd from 1pm-3pm, Open house Sunday July 23rd from 1pm-3pm, Open house Wednesday July 26th from 5:30pm-7:30pm. Offers due Friday July 28th by 5pm.

11. 2023-07-18
    listed $249,900 Active 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    Fantastic and updated 2/2 North Buffalo Gem. Newer Carpets. Updated roof and electrical. Open floor plan. updated baths. Clean dry basement. 2 car detached garage has steel roof. Showings to accommodate tenants will only be at Open house Saturday July 22nd from 1pm-3pm, Open house Sunday July 23rd from 1pm-3pm, Open house Wednesday July 26th from 5:30pm-7:30pm. Offers due Friday July 28th by 5pm.

12. 2007-08-15
    soldstatus $74,200
13. 2002-07-31
    soldstatus $47,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,171 · $98/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,204 · $267/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,033/yr (+$169/mo · 173.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,460
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,359
• − Property taxes: −$1,171
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,837
• − Management: −$2,837
• − Depreciation: −$9,015
• Taxable income: $691
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$166
• After-tax cash flow: $5,625/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 22,849
• Household income: $69,629
• Rent vs Own: 54.4% rent · 45.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1831.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 16% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -264.53%
• Current HPI: 421.1138
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.65%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+552.4% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-25 Contingent — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $309,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $319,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-10-29 Rental Removed $1,395 Avail
• 2025-10-01 Listed for Rent $1,395 Avail
• 2023-10-04 Sold (Public Records) $280,000 Public Records
• 2023-09-28 Sold (MLS) $280,000 WNYREIS
• 2023-08-07 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2023-08-02 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2023-07-18 Listed $249,900 WNYREIS
• 2007-08-15 Sold (Public Records) $74,200 Public Records
• 2002-07-31 Sold (Public Records) $47,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,171 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.