12011 Greencanyon Dr · Houston, TX 77044

$149,199

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,136 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 332 Days on market

Built 1999 4,399 sqft lot $131/sqft · at area comps Est $153k · at est. $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.8/30.0
• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

FIXER UPPER! 12011 Greencanyon Dr is a charming single-family home available in the Northeast Houston area ready for you to call it home! It is a fixer-upper opportunity that awaits your personal touch. This property's location has convenient access to Beltway 8 and I-69. Go shopping at the Westlake Marketplace, try fine dining at Redemption Square, go to the Houston Motorsports Park down the road, or take a short commute to Eisenhower Park! Here there are a ton of great amenities nearby. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

Key facts

• Westlake marketplace
• 4,399 sq ft lot
• Built 1999

Tags

• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO BELTWAY 8
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO I-69
• WESTLAKE MARKETPLACE
• HOUSTON MOTORSPORTS PARK
• GREAT AMENITIES NEARBY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $260 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Sheldon ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #746 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 337 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.6%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 332 days — a 12% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,295 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 332 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.46%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $152,889
• List price: $149,199
• Delta: -2.41%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11818 Kingslake Forest Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,188 (+5%)	1mo	$68,000	$57	86
11850 Greencanyon Dr	0.21mi	3/2.5	1,128 (-1%)	2mo	$185,000	$164	85
11954 Greensbrook Forest Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,188 (+5%)	4mo	$125,000	$105	80
11907 Greensbrook Forest Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,080 (-5%)	3mo	$159,000	$147	79
11839 Greencanyon Dr	0.23mi	3/1.0	1,136 (0%)	8mo	$90,000	$79	78
11722 Greenglen Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,188 (+5%)	1mo	$169,000	$142	76
11950 Greensbrook Forest Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,080 (-5%)	10mo	$139,900	$130	74
11835 Greensbrook Forest Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,188 (+5%)	11mo	$135,000	$114	72
11715 Greenglen Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,080 (-5%)	5mo	$140,000	$130	71
11738 Greencanyon Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+8%)	4mo	$159,900	$130	68
11915 Greenmesa Dr	0.18mi	3/1.0	1,050 (-8%)	10mo	$130,000	$124	67
11718 Greenmesa Dr	0.34mi	3/1.0	1,036 (-9%)	10mo	$135,000	$130	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.59% appreciation · 0.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-2,194
• Equity at exit: $31,864

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $13,477
• Equity at exit: $30,039

Cash invested: $41,776 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77044

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,810 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$782
• Tax from tax record: −$309 /mo · $3,706/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $260

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,482

Max offer price $149,199

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $344	-5% $302	+0% $260	+5% $217	+10% $175
Rent	-10% $117	-5% $188	+0% $260	+5% $331	+10% $403
Rate	-1.0pp $335	-0.5pp $298	base $260	+0.5pp $221	+1.0pp $182

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,300
• Closing costs: $4,476
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11950 Greensbrook Forest Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,500	$1.39	19d	1	0.24mi
12211 Haroldson Forest Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	958	$1,619	$1.69	3d	1	0.32mi
11711 Greenglen Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,603	$1.48	2d	1	0.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,199 Active 332 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,199 Active 331 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,199 Active 330 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,199 Active 329 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,199 Active 327 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,199 Active 323 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,199 Active 322 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,199 Active 321 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $149,199 Active 318 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,199 Active 317 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,199 Active 316 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,199 Active 315 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,199 Active 314 DOM
14. 2025-07-21
    listed $149,199 Active 718-char remark

    Show marketing remark (718 chars)

    FIXER UPPER! 12011 Greencanyon Dr is a charming single-family home available in the Northeast Houston area ready for you to call it home! It is a fixer-upper opportunity that awaits your personal touch. This property's location has convenient access to Beltway 8 and I-69. Go shopping at the Westlake Marketplace, try fine dining at Redemption Square, go to the Houston Motorsports Park down the road, or take a short commute to Eisenhower Park! Here there are a ton of great amenities nearby. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

15. 2020-05-11
    soldstatus
16. 2019-06-12
    soldstatus
17. 2016-04-27
    soldstatus
18. 2013-05-20
    soldstatus
19. 2010-03-31
    soldstatus 18-char remark

    Show marketing remark (18 chars)

    GOOD STARTER HOME.

20. 2010-03-23
    historical 18-char remark

    Show marketing remark (18 chars)

    GOOD STARTER HOME.

21. 2010-03-16
    listed $22,500 18-char remark

    Show marketing remark (18 chars)

    GOOD STARTER HOME.

22. 2006-07-27
    soldstatus
23. 2003-04-22
    soldstatus
24. 2000-02-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,706 · $309/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,706 · $309/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,723
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,357
• − Property taxes: −$3,706
• − Insurance: −$746
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,738
• − Management: −$1,738
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$4,340
• Taxable income: $894
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$215
• After-tax cash flow: $2,902/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sheldon ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $49,443
• Composite: 19.5/100
• National rank: #8772
• State rank: #746 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 58,347
• Household income: $95,000
• Rent vs Own: 24.1% rent · 75.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1332.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% Black 32% White 19% Two or more races 18% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 35% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.59%
• Current HPI: 215.5736
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.92%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+563.1% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-21 Listed $149,199 HARMLS
• 2020-05-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-06-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-04-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-05-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-03-31 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2010-03-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2010-03-16 Listed $22,500 HARMLS
• 2006-07-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-04-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-02-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,706 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.