137 W Arlee Ave · Lemay, MO 63125

$91,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 798 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1927 7,200 sqft lot $114/sqft · 37% below area Est $145k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming Hancock Place bungalow — don’t miss this value-priced opportunity! This home offers 2 bedrooms, 1 bath, some original wood flooring, eat in kitchen. Separate Dining room. Covered front and back porches. Parking pad/patio off the alley in a partially fenced yard. Full walk out basement with lots of storage and possibilities. Property sold AS-IS. Seller makes no representations or warranties and will not perform repairs or provide inspections. Previously used as rental property.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Separate dining room
• Eat in kitchen

Tags

• ORIGINAL WOOD FLOORING
• EAT IN KITCHEN
• SEPARATE DINING ROOM
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• COVERED BACK PORCH
• PARKING PAD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No pool
• Financial info: Seller may consider concessions; Lease not considered

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service by Ameren; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single family residence (attached); One story
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Level lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level)
• Flooring: Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No central air
• Interior features: Wood flooring; Full basement with interior entry and walk-out access
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $91k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $317 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $91k).
• Recommended offer: $90k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 5.3% in Lemay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#213 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, crime F.
• Hancock Place (suburban): math 30% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #251 of 324 in MO (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hancock Place Elem. (math 34% / reading 34%, grade F, #739 of 1,115 statewide, top 67%, 616 students, 74% FRL); Hancock Sr. High (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #321 of 521 statewide, top 67%, 389 students, 91% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 57% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $629 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($90k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $91k implies a 52% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1927 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $89,635 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1927 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.94%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $144,599
• List price: $91,000
• Delta: -37.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
323 Carthage Ave	0.33mi	1/1.5 (-1)	825 (+3%)	1mo	$109,900	$133	71
121 Mann St	0.42mi	2/2.0	816 (+2%)	4mo	$119,900	$147	70
112 E Arlee Ave	0.18mi	2/2.0	888 (+11%)	2mo	$190,000	$214	67
816 Regina Ave	0.71mi	2/1.0	798 (0%)	2mo	$200,000	$251	65
331 Rauhut Ave	0.37mi	2/1.0	712 (-11%)	2mo	$146,500	$206	63
9604 Gentry Ave	0.30mi	2/1.0	916 (+15%)	2mo	$69,900	$76	60
1710 Telegraph Rd	0.33mi	2/2.0	700 (-12%)	3mo	$90,000	$129	58
312 Carthage Ave	0.29mi	1/1.0 (-1)	910 (+14%)	5mo	$164,900	$181	54
1036 Wachtel Ave	0.48mi	3/1.0 (+1)	888 (+11%)	2mo	$174,900	$197	52
1402 Dammert Ave	0.38mi	3/1.0 (+1)	912 (+14%)	2mo	$209,900	$230	52
939 Erskine Ave	0.59mi	2/1.0	894 (+12%)	3mo	$155,000	$173	50
712 Orient Ave	0.65mi	2/1.0	900 (+13%)	4mo	$152,500	$169	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $5,475
• Equity at exit: $13,568

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.21×
• Total profit: $30,850
• Equity at exit: $7,868

Cash invested: $25,480 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63125

• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,194 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$477
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,328/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $317

Break-even live

Break-even rent $792

Max offer price $91,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $369	-5% $343	+0% $317	+5% $291	+10% $266
Rent	-10% $223	-5% $270	+0% $317	+5% $364	+10% $412
Rate	-1.0pp $363	-0.5pp $340	base $317	+0.5pp $294	+1.0pp $270

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,750
• Closing costs: $2,730
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
127 E Holden Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1044	$1,200	$1.15	44d	1	0.23mi
152 W Etta Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	936	$1,274	$1.36	8d	1	0.25mi
9954 Meadow Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,050	$0.95	5d	1	0.34mi
9964 Meadow Ave Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	950	$775	$0.82	8d	1	0.38mi
274 Kingston Dr St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	522	$1,149	$2.20	2d	4	0.69mi
709 Dammert Ave Unit Labs St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	800	$1,100	$1.38	44d	1	0.77mi
304 Bayless Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1104	$1,950	$1.77	2d	1	0.80mi
207 Waller Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,075	$1.19	24d	1	0.88mi
315 Sigsbee Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	700	$850	$1.21	22d	1	1.11mi
8511 Idaho Ave Unit 1st Floor St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	750	$850	$1.13	13d	1	1.33mi
8125 Michigan Ave St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	797	$1,150	$1.44	15d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $91,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $91,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $91,000 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $91,000 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $91,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $91,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $91,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $91,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $91,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $91,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $91,000 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on marketlisting id $91,000 Active 1 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $91,000 Active 73 DOM
14. 2026-05-11
    price $91,000 502-char remark
15. 2026-03-19
    listed $93,000 Active 502-char remark
16. 2006-04-10
    soldstatus $60,000
17. 2006-04-10
    soldstatus $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,328 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,328 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,324
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,097
• − Property taxes: −$1,328
• − Insurance: −$455
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,146
• − Management: −$1,146
• − Depreciation: −$2,647
• Taxable income: $2,505
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$601
• After-tax cash flow: $3,206/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hancock Place
• NCES district ID: 2913620
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $41,890
• Composite: 27.08/100
• National rank: #7048
• State rank: #251 of 324 in MO

Livability — Lemay

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #213
• US rank: #10652

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lemay, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 33,294
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 33,294
• Household income: $61,624
• Rent vs Own: 27.8% rent · 72.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 631.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: American 9% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 11% Spanish 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -173.27%
• Current HPI: 234.3792
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+51.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $91,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $91,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-19 Listed $93,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-04-10 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2006-04-10 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,328 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.