9825 Sally Ave · California City, CA 93505

$264,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,823 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 152 Days on market

Built 1985 10,454 sqft lot $145/sqft · 19% below area Est $327k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Large an Spacious 3 bedroom/2 baths custom home new appliances, flooring and painting upgrades on a pool sized lot with new appliances, flooring and paint upgrades

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1985

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-8 ($-94/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $264k (0.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (20.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $212k (20.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 44/100 on livability (#1,329 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Mojave Unified (town): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #411 of 517 in CA (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 703 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 5.5% rent growth), your $74k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 152 days — a 12% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 20 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $265k implies a 77% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,644 (20.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 152 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.13%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $327,275
• List price: $264,900
• Delta: -19.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9925 Irene Ave	0.12mi	3/2.5	1,750 (-4%)	0mo	$280,000	$160	85
21601 Adler	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,859 (+2%)	1mo	$360,000	$194	85
9701 Susan Ave	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,753 (-4%)	3mo	$345,000	$197	82
9840 Margery Ave	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,625 (-11%)	2mo	$275,000	$169	70
9801 Evelyn Ave	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,923 (+6%)	4mo	$325,000	$169	68
9629 Mendiburu Rd	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,900 (+4%)	3mo	$410,000	$216	66
21851 101st St	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,960 (+8%)	4mo	$209,000	$107	66
9709 Susan Ave	0.19mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,994 (+9%)	3mo	$390,000	$196	62
9418 Karen Ave	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,626 (-11%)	3mo	$258,000	$159	58
10121 Margery Ave	0.37mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,035 (+12%)	0mo	$370,000	$182	56
9644 Raymond Ave	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,720 (-6%)	4mo	$360,000	$209	55
21631 Sheridan Ct	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,792 (-2%)	4mo	$389,000	$217	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 5.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.01×
• Total profit: $149,058
• Equity at exit: $238,643

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.08×
• Total profit: $451,198
• Equity at exit: $514,642

Cash invested: $74,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93505

• Home prices YoY: 13.0%
• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 703
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,116 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,389
• Tax from tax record: −$180 /mo · $2,163/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $-8

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,126

Max offer price $263,520

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $142	-5% $67	+0% $-8	+5% $-83	+10% $-158
Rent	-10% $-175	-5% $-91	+0% $-8	+5% $76	+10% $159
Rate	-1.0pp $126	-0.5pp $60	base $-8	+0.5pp $-76	+1.0pp $-146

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,225
• Closing costs: $7,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21319 Conklin Ct California City, CA	2.0	2.0	1816	$2,200	$1.21	44d	1	0.25mi
21235 Windsong St California City, CA	3.0	3.0	1780	$2,100	$1.18	24d	1	0.32mi
21187 Conklin Blvd California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1473	$1,800	$1.22	15d	1	0.40mi
9931 Putter Ct California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1445	$1,675	$1.16	4d	1	0.41mi
10193 Evelyn Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1616	$2,150	$1.33	15d	1	0.53mi
9019 Evelyn Ave California City, CA	4.0	2.0	1731	$2,600	$1.50	4d	1	0.85mi
21231 Corwin St California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1632	$2,500	$1.53	24d	1	0.95mi
21398 Baldwin Ln California City, CA	4.0	2.0	1527	$2,000	$1.31	3d	1	1.07mi
9213 Holly Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1339	$1,900	$1.42	4d	1	1.17mi
8801 S Loop Blvd California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1537	$2,600	$1.69	24d	1	1.41mi
9610 Oleander Ave Unit A California City, CA	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,575	$1.21	24d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $264,900 Active 152 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $264,900 Active 151 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $273,900 Active 150 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $273,900 Active 149 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $273,900 Active 147 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $273,900 Active 146 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $273,900 Active 144 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $273,900 Active 143 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $273,900 Active 142 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $273,900 Active 141 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $273,900 Active 138 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $273,900 Active 137 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $273,900 Active 136 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $273,900 Active 135 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $273,900 Active 134 DOM
16. 2026-04-17
    price $274,000 163-char remark

    Show marketing remark (163 chars)

    Large an Spacious 3 bedroom/2 baths custom home new appliances, flooring and painting upgrades on a pool sized lot with new appliances, flooring and paint upgrades

17. 2026-04-12
    price $274,000 164-char remark

    Show marketing remark (164 chars)

    Large an Spacious 3 bedroom/2 baths custom home new appliances, flooring and painting upgrades on a pool sized lot with new appliances, flooring and paint upgrades

18. 2026-02-05
    price $279,000 164-char remark

    Show marketing remark (163 chars)

    Large an Spacious 3 bedroom/2 baths custom home new appliances, flooring and painting upgrades on a pool sized lot with new appliances, flooring and paint upgrades

19. 2026-02-05
    price $279,000 163-char remark

    Show marketing remark (163 chars)

    Large an Spacious 3 bedroom/2 baths custom home new appliances, flooring and painting upgrades on a pool sized lot with new appliances, flooring and paint upgrades

20. 2026-01-23
    price $285,000 164-char remark

    Show marketing remark (163 chars)

    Large an Spacious 3 bedroom/2 baths custom home new appliances, flooring and painting upgrades on a pool sized lot with new appliances, flooring and paint upgrades

21. 2026-01-23
    price $285,000 163-char remark

    Show marketing remark (163 chars)

    Large an Spacious 3 bedroom/2 baths custom home new appliances, flooring and painting upgrades on a pool sized lot with new appliances, flooring and paint upgrades

22. 2026-01-17
    historical $2,300
23. 2026-01-16
    listed $295,000 Active 163-char remark

    Show marketing remark (164 chars)

    Large an Spacious 3 bedroom/2 baths custom home new appliances, flooring and painting upgrades on a pool sized lot with new appliances, flooring and paint upgrades

24. 2026-01-16
    listed $295,000 Active 164-char remark

    Show marketing remark (164 chars)

    Large an Spacious 3 bedroom/2 baths custom home new appliances, flooring and painting upgrades on a pool sized lot with new appliances, flooring and paint upgrades

25. 2026-01-01
    listed $2,300
26. 2025-12-21
    historical $2,300
27. 2025-12-17
    listed $2,300
28. 2025-11-21
    historical $2,300
29. 2025-10-29
    listed $2,300
30. 2025-09-26
    listed Active
31. 2025-06-20
    listed $268,800 Active
32. 2025-06-13
    price $268,800
33. 2025-06-13
    price
34. 2025-05-17
    price $268,900
35. 2025-05-16
    price
36. 2025-04-26
    price $269,000
37. 2025-04-25
    price
38. 2025-04-18
    price $274,900
39. 2025-04-17
    price
40. 2025-04-14
    price $284,900
41. 2025-04-14
    price
42. 2025-02-20
    price $289,900
43. 2025-02-20
    price
44. 2025-01-29
    listed Active
45. 2024-12-11
    historical
46. 2024-08-08
    listed $315,000 Active
47. 2019-09-05
    historical Canceled
48. 2019-09-04
    historical
49. 2019-06-27
    price $175,000
50. 2019-05-22
    listed $179,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,163 · $180/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,163 · $180/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥101°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 17 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,397
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,839
• − Property taxes: −$2,163
• − Insurance: −$1,324
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,032
• − Management: −$2,032
• − Depreciation: −$7,706
• Taxable loss: −$4,699
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,128
• After-tax cash flow: $1,034/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mojave Unified
• NCES district ID: 0625230
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,017
• Composite: 21.4/100
• National rank: #8350
• State rank: #411 of 517 in CA

Livability — California City

• Score: 44/100
• State rank: #1329
• US rank: #26753

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: California City, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• City population: 14,353
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 14,353
• Household income: $59,827
• Rent vs Own: 44.6% rent · 55.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 883.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 40% White 30% Black 22% Two or more races 16% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 29%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 46.32%
• Current HPI: 402.4192
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.45%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+112.4% since first listed

63 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $274,000 TheMLS
• 2026-04-12 Price Changed $274,000 AVMLS
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $279,000 AVMLS
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $279,000 TheMLS
• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $285,000 AVMLS
• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $285,000 TheMLS
• 2026-01-17 Rental Removed $2,300 CLAW
• 2026-01-16 Listed $295,000 AVMLS
• 2026-01-16 Listed $295,000 TheMLS
• 2026-01-01 Listed for Rent $2,300 CLAW
• 2025-12-21 Rental Removed $2,300 CLAW
• 2025-12-17 Listed for Rent $2,300 CLAW
• 2025-11-21 Rental Removed $2,300 CLAW
• 2025-10-29 Listed for Rent $2,300 CLAW
• 2025-09-26 Listed — TheMLS
• 2025-06-20 Listed $268,800 SSMLS
• 2025-06-13 Price Changed $268,800 AVMLS
• 2025-06-13 Price Changed — TheMLS
• 2025-05-17 Price Changed $268,900 AVMLS
• 2025-05-16 Price Changed — TheMLS
• 2025-04-26 Price Changed $269,000 AVMLS
• 2025-04-25 Price Changed — TheMLS
• 2025-04-18 Price Changed $274,900 AVMLS
• 2025-04-17 Price Changed — TheMLS
• 2025-04-14 Price Changed $284,900 AVMLS
• 2025-04-14 Price Changed — TheMLS
• 2025-02-20 Price Changed $289,900 AVMLS
• 2025-02-20 Price Changed — TheMLS
• 2025-01-29 Listed — TheMLS
• 2024-12-11 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-08-08 Listed $315,000 CRMLS
• 2019-09-05 Delisted — TheMLS
• 2019-09-04 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2019-06-27 Price Changed $175,000 AVMLS
• 2019-05-22 Listed $179,900 AVMLS
• 2019-05-20 Listed — TheMLS
• 2017-07-27 Sold (Public Records) $150,100 Public Records
• 2017-07-27 Sold (MLS) $150,000 AVMLS
• 2017-07-26 Sold (MLS) $150,000 CRMLS
• 2017-05-16 Pending — CRMLS
• 2017-05-16 Pending — AVMLS
• 2017-04-08 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2017-04-08 Relisted — AVMLS
• 2017-02-09 Pending — CRMLS
• 2017-02-09 Pending — AVMLS
• 2016-08-23 Price Changed $149,500 AVMLS
• 2016-08-23 Price Changed $149,500 CRMLS
• 2016-07-14 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2016-07-14 Listed $154,900 CRMLS
• 2016-07-14 Listed $154,900 CRMLS
• 2016-07-14 Listed $154,900 AVMLS
• 2015-08-13 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2014-12-12 Listed $155,000 CRMLS
• 2013-12-02 Sold (Public Records) $93,500 Public Records
• 2013-11-30 Sold (MLS) $93,333 TheMLS
• 2013-10-01 Delisted — TheMLS
• 2013-06-07 Listed $99,950 TheMLS
• 2013-02-28 Sold (MLS) $63,000 AVMLS
• 2013-02-28 Sold (MLS) $63,000 CRMLS
• 2013-01-28 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2012-06-25 Listed $82,900 AVMLS
• 2012-06-25 Listed $82,900 CRMLS
• 2003-02-27 Sold (Public Records) $129,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,163 · -5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.