2039 San Felipe Dr · Brownsville, TX 78520

$205,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,438 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 2022 5,390 sqft lot Est $217k · 6% under ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• ARV discount +10.0/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Receive 2023 in a Brand New Construction home! Located in a well established neighborhood, this beautiful home has 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, open concept floor plan, white warm colors that invite you to stay and enjoy your home. Nice fully fenced backyard perfect for entretain! Schedule a showing and enjoy your visit!

Key facts

• Open concept kitchen
• New construction
• Granite countertops

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• STAINLESS STEEL FRIDGE
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• HIGH CEILINGS
• BACK YARD FENCED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-44 ($-532/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $197k (3.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (8.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (8.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 5.0% in Brownsville — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#62 in TX, #2,311 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, crime D-, employment F.
• Brownsville ISD (urban): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #710 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ortiz El (math 67% / reading 67%, grade B+, #199 of 4,322 statewide, top 5%, 500 students, 92% FRL); Manzano Middle (math 30% / reading 38%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 905 students, 82% FRL); Pace Early College H S (math 32% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 1,788 students, 92% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 44% at this address vs 27% district-wide (+18 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Brownsville ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.4%/yr); 348 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,533 (8.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.93%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $217,138
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2225 El Cielo St	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,380 (-4%)	2mo	$199,000	$144	66
2244 El Cielo St	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,334 (-7%)	12mo	$202,000	$151	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-26,037
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $19,186
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78520

• Home prices YoY: -19.8%
• Rents YoY: 11.4%
• Active inventory: 348
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,875 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$365 /mo · $4,385/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $-44

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,931

Max offer price $197,167

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $72	-5% $14	+0% $-44	+5% $-102	+10% $-160
Rent	-10% $-192	-5% $-118	+0% $-44	+5% $30	+10% $104
Rate	-1.0pp $59	-0.5pp $8	base $-44	+0.5pp $-97	+1.0pp $-152

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2394 El Arca Dr Brownsville, TX	3.0	1.0	968	$1,300	$1.34	15d	1	0.72mi
2100 Laredo Rd Brownsville, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	976	$1,540	$1.58	15d	6	0.77mi
3 Conquistador Dr Lot 3 Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1750	$2,500	$1.43	15d	1	0.97mi
1150 Quail Hollow Dr Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.5	1333	$1,950	$1.46	23d	1	1.07mi
3055 El Paso Rd Unit H-1 Brownsville, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$1,050	$1.17	45d	1	1.45mi
2733 Naples St Brownsville, TX	4.0	2.0	1796	$2,400	$1.34	45d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-05
   soldstatus
2. 2026-02-18
   status Pending
3. 2026-02-03
   listed $205,000 Active
4. 2023-03-09
   soldstatus Closed 327-char remark

   Show marketing remark (327 chars)

   Receive 2023 in a Brand New Construction home! Located in a well established neighborhood, this beautiful home has 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, open concept floor plan, white warm colors that invite you to stay and enjoy your home. Nice fully fenced backyard perfect for entretain! Schedule a showing and enjoy your visit!

5. 2023-02-12
   status Pending 327-char remark

   Show marketing remark (327 chars)

   Receive 2023 in a Brand New Construction home! Located in a well established neighborhood, this beautiful home has 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, open concept floor plan, white warm colors that invite you to stay and enjoy your home. Nice fully fenced backyard perfect for entretain! Schedule a showing and enjoy your visit!

6. 2022-12-23
   listed $235,000 Active 327-char remark

   Show marketing remark (327 chars)

   Receive 2023 in a Brand New Construction home! Located in a well established neighborhood, this beautiful home has 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, open concept floor plan, white warm colors that invite you to stay and enjoy your home. Nice fully fenced backyard perfect for entretain! Schedule a showing and enjoy your visit!

7. 2021-01-22
   soldstatus
8. 2018-02-23
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,385 · $365/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,385 · $365/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,504
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$4,385
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,800
• − Management: −$1,800
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$3,953
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$949
• After-tax cash flow: $417/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brownsville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811680
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $30,490
• Composite: 21.8/100
• National rank: #8249
• State rank: #710 of 826 in TX

Livability — Brownsville

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #62
• US rank: #2311

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brownsville, TX
• County: Cameron County · 310,734 people
• City population: 212,132
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• Population (ZIP): 64,740
• Household income: $50,116
• Rent vs Own: 39.8% rent · 60.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1800.0

Population outlook (Cameron County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 441,603 people
• By 2030: 448,113 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 456,385 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 456,294 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 423,851 · -4.0%
• By 2100: 342,787 · -22.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 93% Two or more races 44% White 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 88%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada
• Languages at home: 18% English-only · Spanish 82%

Political lean MEDSL · Cameron

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.8) · D 46.7% · R 52.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.8pp · 2024: -5.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.8 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+32.5 2012: D+32.4 2008: D+28.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -52.91%
• Current HPI: 214.4335
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.41%
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-02-18 Pending — RGVMLS
• 2026-02-03 Listed $205,000 RGVMLS
• 2023-03-09 Sold (MLS) — RGVMLS
• 2023-02-12 Pending — RGVMLS
• 2022-12-23 Listed $235,000 RGVMLS
• 2021-01-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-02-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+26.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,385 · -9.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.