6405 Tabogi Trl · Wesley Chapel, FL 33545

$297,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,158 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 47 Days on market

Built 2004 4,684 sqft lot Est $296k · at est. $36/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.4/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Some homes are just houses. This one is a decision you will not second-guess. Set along a peaceful pond in Wesley Chapel, this 3-bed, 2-bath waterfront retreat pairs daily sunset views with real financial sense — solar panels slash the electric bill, and a roof, HVAC, and water heater all replaced within five years mean zero surprises ahead. The water draws you in. The numbers keep you there. Pond-front homes at this value in Pasco County move fast — and this one will too. Schedule your private showing today before it’s gone!

Key facts

• Replaced hvac
• Replaced roof
• Sunset views

Tags

• WATERFRONT RETREAT
• SOLAR PANELS
• REPLACED ROOF
• REPLACED HVAC
• REPLACED WATER HEATER
• SUNSET VIEWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Turnkey furnished option available; Total annual fees $440
• HOA & community: HOA managed by First Property Management Services; Quarterly association fee ($110); Monthly HOA equivalent $36.67; Association approval required; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One level; West-facing
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as part of MPUD zoning
• Exterior features: Pond frontage (60 feet); On waterfront (pond); Public-facing west

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $297k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-6 ($-76/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $296k (0.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (23.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $228k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.7% in Wesley Chapel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#143 in FL, #2,137 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Watergrass Elementary School (math 50% / reading 62%, grade C+, #832 of 2,144 statewide, top 40%, 865 students, 41% FRL); Thomas E. Weightman Middle School (math 48% / reading 53%, grade C, #246 of 571 statewide, top 44%, 1,250 students, 40% FRL); Wesley Chapel High School (math 52% / reading 58%, grade C, #135 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 1,826 students, 40% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 588 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($288k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $228,467 (23.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.09%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $296,448
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6248 Tabogi Trl	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,158 (0%)	8mo	$315,000	$272	87
30418 Birdhouse Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,172 (+1%)	10mo	$294,900	$252	80
30228 Birdhouse Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,158 (0%)	20mo	$315,000	$272	76
30618 Birdhouse Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,158 (0%)	13mo	$285,000	$246	74
30225 Double Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,159 (+0%)	13mo	$335,000	$289	67
6406 Sushi Ct	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,172 (+1%)	4mo	$275,000	$235	63
6531 Tabogi Trl	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,292 (+12%)	21mo	$370,000	$286	53
30607 Birdhouse Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,303 (+12%)	18mo	$330,000	$253	51
30152 Eastport Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+8%)	14mo	$147,000	$118	43
6340 Sushi Ct	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,310 (+13%)	16mo	$335,000	$256	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-55,341
• Equity at exit: $44,284

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-75,049
• Equity at exit: $25,679

Cash invested: $83,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33545

• Home prices YoY: -17.4%
• Rents YoY: -2.7%
• Active inventory: 588
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,285 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,558
• Tax from tax record: −$94 /mo · $1,128/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$36
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$480
• Net cashflow: $-6

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,293

Max offer price $295,877

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $162	-5% $78	+0% $-6	+5% $-90	+10% $-174
Rent	-10% $-187	-5% $-97	+0% $-6	+5% $84	+10% $174
Rate	-1.0pp $143	-0.5pp $69	base $-6	+0.5pp $-83	+1.0pp $-162

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,250
• Closing costs: $8,910
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
30319 Birdhouse Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1158	$2,115	$1.83	22d	1	0.18mi
6535 Tabogi Trl Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1158	$1,995	$1.72	26d	1	0.19mi
30626 Birdhouse Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1158	$2,200	$1.90	14d	1	0.37mi
6332 Open Pasture Ct Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1445	$2,165	$1.50	22d	1	0.47mi
6419 Chapel Pines Blvd Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.0	1434	$2,195	$1.53	26d	1	0.49mi
5919 Lake Front Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.0	1420	$2,060	$1.45	1d	1	0.57mi
6274 Caroline Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1497	$2,850	$1.90	1d	6	0.90mi
5483 Moonstone Way Unit 1 Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1248	$2,010	$1.61	26d	1	1.15mi
5470 Moonstone Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1248	$2,320	$1.86	1d	1	1.16mi
31155 Seaboard Cir Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	977	$2,409	$2.46	1d	27	1.18mi
7632 Armonk Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.0	1471	$2,400	$1.63	26d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $36 · $432/yr
• Likely covers: waterelectric

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-07
   price $297,000
3. 2026-04-28
   price $299,000
4. 2026-04-24
   price $314,990
5. 2026-04-15
   price $319,990
6. 2026-04-02
   listed $329,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,128 · $94/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,465 · $205/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,337/yr (+$111/mo · 118.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,416
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,637
• − Property taxes: −$1,128
• − Insurance: −$1,485
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,193
• − Management: −$2,193
• − HOA: −$432
• − Depreciation: −$8,640
• Taxable loss: −$5,292
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,270
• After-tax cash flow: $1,194/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Wesley Chapel

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #143
• US rank: #2137

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wesley Chapel, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 100,771
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,222
• Household income: $118,889
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 287.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 20% Black 14% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.59%
• Current HPI: 273.0769
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.68%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $297,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $299,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $314,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $319,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Listed $329,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,128 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.