9002 Arnold Rd · New Baltimore, MI 48023

$299,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,352 sqft · SingleFamily · 104 Days on market

Built 1992 2.19 ac lot $222/sqft · at area comps Est $293k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• ARV discount +6.3/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Your own piece of the country with a short drive to city conveniences! 2.19 Acres in the highly sought after Anchor Bay School District. This 3 bedroom 2 bathroom manufactured home features a remolded kitchen with beautiful knotty maple cabinets featuring self closing drawers and pull out shelves. The large open floorplan has vaulted ceilings and a cozy wood burning stove. The primary bedroom features an ensuite bathroom. Huge windows ensure plenty of natural light. Step out on the back deck and enjoy your 1/2 acre pond with a small dock for fishing. Plenty of storage and place for all your toys awaits in the 2 car garage and 24x40 pole barn. You really can have it all! Buyer/Buyers Agent to verify all information. * * Property has affidavit of affixture for ease of mortgage financing * *

Key facts

• Remodeled kitchen
• Open floorplan
• Pull out shelves

Tags

• REMODELED KITCHEN
• KNOTTY MAPLE CABINETS
• SELF CLOSING DRAWERS
• PULL OUT SHELVES
• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• VAULTED CEILINGS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $61 ($737/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (16.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $250k (16.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 2.6% in New Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#30 in MI, #597 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F.
• Anchor Bay School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #91 of 540 in MI (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 232 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Clair County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $230k; 30% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $250,000 (16.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.88%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $292,518
• List price: $299,995
• Delta: 2.56%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9101 Arnold Rd	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,302 (-4%)	21mo	$354,700	$272	69
6447 Meldrum Rd	0.16mi	3/1.0	1,271 (-6%)	19mo	$310,000	$244	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-44,758
• Equity at exit: $44,730

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-34,180
• Equity at exit: $25,938

Cash invested: $83,999 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48023

• Home prices YoY: -18.6%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$215 /mo · $2,584/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $61

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,422

Max offer price $299,995

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $231	-5% $146	+0% $61	+5% $-23	+10% $-108
Rent	-10% $-136	-5% $-37	+0% $61	+5% $160	+10% $259
Rate	-1.0pp $213	-0.5pp $138	base $61	+0.5pp $-16	+1.0pp $-95

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,999
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9769 Dixie Hwy Ira Township, MI	3.0	2.0	1056	$2,500	$2.37	26d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 42 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $299,995 Active 104 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,995 Active 101 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,995 Active 100 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,995 Active 99 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,995 Active 98 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,995 Active 96 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,995 Active 92 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,995 Active 91 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,995 Active 90 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $299,995 Active 87 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,995 Active 86 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,995 Active 85 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,995 Active 84 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,995 Active 83 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    price $300,000 801-char remark

    Show marketing remark (801 chars)

    Your own piece of the country with a short drive to city conveniences! 2.19 Acres in the highly sought after Anchor Bay School District. This 3 bedroom 2 bathroom manufactured home features a remolded kitchen with beautiful knotty maple cabinets featuring self closing drawers and pull out shelves. The large open floorplan has vaulted ceilings and a cozy wood burning stove. The primary bedroom features an ensuite bathroom. Huge windows ensure plenty of natural light. Step out on the back deck and enjoy your 1/2 acre pond with a small dock for fishing. Plenty of storage and place for all your toys awaits in the 2 car garage and 24x40 pole barn. You really can have it all! Buyer/Buyers Agent to verify all information. * * Property has affidavit of affixture for ease of mortgage financing * *

16. 2026-05-14
    price $300,000 801-char remark

    Show marketing remark (801 chars)

    Your own piece of the country with a short drive to city conveniences! 2.19 Acres in the highly sought after Anchor Bay School District. This 3 bedroom 2 bathroom manufactured home features a remolded kitchen with beautiful knotty maple cabinets featuring self closing drawers and pull out shelves. The large open floorplan has vaulted ceilings and a cozy wood burning stove. The primary bedroom features an ensuite bathroom. Huge windows ensure plenty of natural light. Step out on the back deck and enjoy your 1/2 acre pond with a small dock for fishing. Plenty of storage and place for all your toys awaits in the 2 car garage and 24x40 pole barn. You really can have it all! Buyer/Buyers Agent to verify all information. * * Property has affidavit of affixture for ease of mortgage financing * *

17. 2026-03-09
    listed $310,000 Active 801-char remark

    Show marketing remark (801 chars)

    Your own piece of the country with a short drive to city conveniences! 2.19 Acres in the highly sought after Anchor Bay School District. This 3 bedroom 2 bathroom manufactured home features a remolded kitchen with beautiful knotty maple cabinets featuring self closing drawers and pull out shelves. The large open floorplan has vaulted ceilings and a cozy wood burning stove. The primary bedroom features an ensuite bathroom. Huge windows ensure plenty of natural light. Step out on the back deck and enjoy your 1/2 acre pond with a small dock for fishing. Plenty of storage and place for all your toys awaits in the 2 car garage and 24x40 pole barn. You really can have it all! Buyer/Buyers Agent to verify all information. * * Property has affidavit of affixture for ease of mortgage financing * *

18. 2026-03-09
    listed $310,000 Active 801-char remark

    Show marketing remark (801 chars)

    Your own piece of the country with a short drive to city conveniences! 2.19 Acres in the highly sought after Anchor Bay School District. This 3 bedroom 2 bathroom manufactured home features a remolded kitchen with beautiful knotty maple cabinets featuring self closing drawers and pull out shelves. The large open floorplan has vaulted ceilings and a cozy wood burning stove. The primary bedroom features an ensuite bathroom. Huge windows ensure plenty of natural light. Step out on the back deck and enjoy your 1/2 acre pond with a small dock for fishing. Plenty of storage and place for all your toys awaits in the 2 car garage and 24x40 pole barn. You really can have it all! Buyer/Buyers Agent to verify all information. * * Property has affidavit of affixture for ease of mortgage financing * *

19. 2024-05-21
    soldstatus $230,000 Closed
20. 2024-05-21
    soldstatus $230,000
21. 2024-05-01
    status Pending
22. 2024-04-26
    price $235,000
23. 2024-04-25
    status Active
24. 2024-04-12
    status Pending
25. 2024-03-29
    price $259,900
26. 2024-03-28
    status Active
27. 2024-03-16
    status Pending
28. 2024-02-24
    historical Accepting Backup Offers
29. 2024-02-21
    price $269,900
30. 2024-02-19
    price $275,000
31. 2024-02-09
    listed $280,000 Active
32. 2024-02-09
    listed $235,000
33. 2011-02-10
    soldstatus $47,500
34. 2011-02-10
    soldstatus $47,500
35. 2011-02-10
    soldstatus $47,500
36. 2011-01-28
    listed $49,000
37. 2011-01-28
    listed $49,000
38. 2011-01-28
    listed $49,000
39. 2011-01-28
    soldstatus $154,000
40. 2011-01-25
    listed $49,000
41. 2011-01-25
    historical
42. 2010-01-28
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,584 · $215/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,602 · $300/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,018/yr (+$85/mo · 39.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,804
• − Property taxes: −$2,584
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,400
• − Management: −$2,400
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$4,416
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,060
• After-tax cash flow: $1,797/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Anchor Bay School District
• NCES district ID: 2602790
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $70,173
• Composite: 43.85/100
• National rank: #2925
• State rank: #91 of 540 in MI

Livability — New Baltimore

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #597

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,980

Population outlook (St. Clair County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 154,587 people
• By 2030: 150,031 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 138,177 · -10.6%
• By 2050: 124,390 · -19.5%
• By 2075: 95,825 · -38.0%
• By 2100: 68,672 · -55.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Lithuanian 7% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Clair

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.6) · D 32.0% · R 66.6% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -37.3pp toward R · 2008: 2.6pp · 2024: -34.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.6 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+7.1 2008: D+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.80%
• Current HPI: 200.5277
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+512.2% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $300,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $300,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-09 Listed $310,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-09 Listed $310,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-05-21 Sold (MLS) $230,000 REALCOMP
• 2024-05-21 Sold (MLS) $230,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-05-01 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-04-26 Price Changed $235,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-04-25 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-04-12 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-03-29 Price Changed $259,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-03-28 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-03-16 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-02-24 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-02-21 Price Changed $269,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-02-19 Price Changed $275,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-02-09 Listed $235,000 REALCOMP
• 2024-02-09 Listed $280,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2011-02-10 Sold (MLS) $47,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2011-02-10 Sold (MLS) $47,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2011-02-10 Sold (MLS) $47,500 REALCOMP
• 2011-01-28 Sold (Public Records) $154,000 Public Records
• 2011-01-28 Listed $49,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2011-01-28 Listed $49,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2011-01-28 Listed $49,000 REALCOMP
• 2011-01-25 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2011-01-25 Listed $49,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2010-01-28 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,584 · -29.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.