621 Fisher St · New Waverly, TX 77358

$190,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,372 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1984 0.30 ac lot $138/sqft · 10% above area Est $202k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.1/30.0
• ARV discount +10.1/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for a fixer-upper with character? This one is ready for your finishing touches! Bring your paint brush & handyman to this inviting New Waverly home offering comfort, convenience, and small-town charm. The layout features a bright living area, a functional kitchen with ample storage, and well-sized bedrooms designed for everyday living. Outside, enjoy a spacious yard with room for outdoor activities, gardening, pets, or future improvements. Conveniently located just minutes from I-45, this property offers easy access to Huntsville, Conroe, and Lake Conroe amenities while maintaining the peaceful feel of the area. A great opportunity for anyone seeking an affordable home with potential in a growing community.

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Functional kitchen
• Bright living area

Tags

• SPACIOUS YARD
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• BRIGHT LIVING AREA
• EASY ACCESS TO I-45
• MINUTES FROM HUNTSVILLE
• MINUTES FROM CONROE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $271 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $184k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 1.7% in New Waverly — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,235 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime D-, amenities F.
• New Waverly ISD (rural): math 37% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #295 of 826 in TX (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 258 active listings in the ZIP; 527 units permitted in Walker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Walker County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,300 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.10%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $201,601
• List price: $190,000
• Delta: -5.75%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
375 Longstreet Rd	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,317 (-4%)	4mo	$79,000	$60	60
455 Longstreet Rd	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,435 (+5%)	7mo	$184,000	$128	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-13,568
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $10,317
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77358

• Home prices YoY: -23.2%
• Active inventory: 258
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,914 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$166 /mo · $1,989/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $271

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,571

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $378	-5% $324	+0% $271	+5% $217	+10% $163
Rent	-10% $119	-5% $195	+0% $271	+5% $346	+10% $422
Rate	-1.0pp $366	-0.5pp $319	base $271	+0.5pp $221	+1.0pp $171

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $190,000 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $190,000 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $190,000 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $190,000 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-04-20
   listed $190,000 Active 728-char remark

   Show marketing remark (728 chars)

   Looking for a fixer-upper with character? This one is ready for your finishing touches! Bring your paint brush & handyman to this inviting New Waverly home offering comfort, convenience, and small-town charm. The layout features a bright living area, a functional kitchen with ample storage, and well-sized bedrooms designed for everyday living. Outside, enjoy a spacious yard with room for outdoor activities, gardening, pets, or future improvements. Conveniently located just minutes from I-45, this property offers easy access to Huntsville, Conroe, and Lake Conroe amenities while maintaining the peaceful feel of the area. A great opportunity for anyone seeking an affordable home with potential in a growing community.

6. 2025-01-31
   historical $1,400
7. 2025-01-31
   historical
8. 2025-01-27
   price $238,000
9. 2025-01-05
   listed $247,900 Active
10. 2024-12-22
    listed $1,400
11. 2024-12-21
    historical
12. 2018-06-06
    soldstatus
13. 2017-01-03
    soldstatus
14. 2013-01-07
    soldstatus
15. 2012-05-25
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,989 · $166/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,477 · $290/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,488/yr (+$124/mo · 74.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,966
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$1,989
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,837
• − Management: −$1,837
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable income: $182
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$44
• After-tax cash flow: $3,204/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Waverly ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832640
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $52,859
• Composite: 37.21/100
• National rank: #4471
• State rank: #295 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Waverly

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1235
• US rank: #21600

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Waverly, TX
• Population (ZIP): 5,565

Population outlook (Walker County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 77,602 people
• By 2030: 82,007 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 90,436 · +16.5%
• By 2050: 100,240 · +29.2%
• By 2075: 123,667 · +59.4%
• By 2100: 135,073 · +74.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Romanian 5% Scottish 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8% French/Haitian/Cajun 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Walker

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.0) · D 29.6% · R 69.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.4pp · 2024: -40.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.0 2020: R+31.7 2016: R+34.5 2012: R+28.4 2008: R+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.32%
• Current HPI: 212.4591
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+13471.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Listed $190,000 HARMLS
• 2025-01-31 Rental Removed $1,400 HARMLS
• 2025-01-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-01-27 Price Changed $238,000 HARMLS
• 2025-01-05 Listed $247,900 HARMLS
• 2024-12-22 Listed for Rent $1,400 HARMLS
• 2024-12-21 Coming Soon — HARMLS
• 2018-06-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-01-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-01-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-05-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+15.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,989 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.