2208 W Baseline Ave #121 · Apache Junction, AZ 85120

$59,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 900 sqft · Manufactured · 213 Days on market

Built 2007 Est $44k · 36% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this cozy single-wide home located at the end of the street in this 55+ community. The kitchen offers plenty of cabinets and the laundry room is in the entryway under the carport. The roof was replaced in June 2023 and the home was leveled in 2021. Make this house your home!

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 2007

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Land lease (approximately $803 monthly); No association fees listed; Community pool; Gated community; Community spa (heated); Community media room; Coin-operated laundry; Biking/walking path

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/Mobile home; Leasehold ownership
• Construction: Wood siding; Wood frame; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Wood siding; Wood frame construction; Shed(s); Gravel/stone front and back; Private maintained road; Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning; Mini-split cooling
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Full bathroom in master bedroom

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $953 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $53k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 25.4% vs local median 3.5% in Apache Junction — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#70 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Apache Junction Unified District (4443) (suburban): math 15% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #195 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.5%/yr); 455 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $414 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 213 days — a 12% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $40k; 50% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $52,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 213 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.89% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 68.22%
• DSCR: 4.04
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $44,100
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2208 W Baseline Ave #194	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,008 (+12%)	7mo	$57,000	$57	74
2175 W Southern Ave #242	0.68mi	2/2.0	960 (+7%)	8mo	$46,900	$49	50
2175 W Southern Ave #280	0.68mi	2/1.0	840 (-7%)	14mo	$30,000	$36	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 64.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.74×
• Total profit: $45,973
• Equity at exit: $8,931

10-year hold

• IRR: 67.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.89×
• Total profit: $98,730
• Equity at exit: $5,179

Cash invested: $16,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85120

• Home prices YoY: -29.0%
• Rents YoY: -3.5%
• Active inventory: 455
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,731 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$314
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$75 /mo · $898/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $953

Break-even live

Break-even rent $524

Max offer price $59,900

Occupancy floor 40%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,975
• Closing costs: $1,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2101 S Yellow Wood #45 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1081	$1,649	$1.53	43d	1	0.93mi
3000 W Southern Ave Apache Junction, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	836	$1,719	$2.05	1d	12	1.20mi
2065 W 20th Ave Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.0	1110	$1,850	$1.67	12d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $59,900 Active 213 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $59,900 Active 212 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $59,900 Active 211 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $59,900 Active 210 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $59,900 Active 208 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $59,900 Active 204 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $59,900 Active 203 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $59,900 Active 202 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $59,900 Active 199 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $59,900 Active 198 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $59,900 Active 197 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $59,900 Active 196 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $59,900 Active 195 DOM
14. 2026-04-28
    price $59,900
15. 2026-01-19
    price $65,000
16. 2025-11-16
    listed $79,900 Active
17. 2025-04-17
    soldstatus $40,000 Closed 287-char remark

    Show marketing remark (287 chars)

    Welcome to this cozy single-wide home located at the end of the street in this 55+ community. The kitchen offers plenty of cabinets and the laundry room is in the entryway under the carport. The roof was replaced in June 2023 and the home was leveled in 2021. Make this house your home!

18. 2025-04-14
    status Pending 287-char remark

    Show marketing remark (287 chars)

    Welcome to this cozy single-wide home located at the end of the street in this 55+ community. The kitchen offers plenty of cabinets and the laundry room is in the entryway under the carport. The roof was replaced in June 2023 and the home was leveled in 2021. Make this house your home!

19. 2025-03-27
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 287-char remark

    Show marketing remark (287 chars)

    Welcome to this cozy single-wide home located at the end of the street in this 55+ community. The kitchen offers plenty of cabinets and the laundry room is in the entryway under the carport. The roof was replaced in June 2023 and the home was leveled in 2021. Make this house your home!

20. 2025-03-03
    price $40,000 287-char remark

    Show marketing remark (287 chars)

    Welcome to this cozy single-wide home located at the end of the street in this 55+ community. The kitchen offers plenty of cabinets and the laundry room is in the entryway under the carport. The roof was replaced in June 2023 and the home was leveled in 2021. Make this house your home!

21. 2024-03-19
    listed $50,000 Active 287-char remark

    Show marketing remark (287 chars)

    Welcome to this cozy single-wide home located at the end of the street in this 55+ community. The kitchen offers plenty of cabinets and the laundry room is in the entryway under the carport. The roof was replaced in June 2023 and the home was leveled in 2021. Make this house your home!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,771
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,355
• − Property taxes: −$898
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,662
• − Management: −$1,662
• − Depreciation: −$1,743
• Taxable income: $11,152
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,676
• After-tax cash flow: $8,765/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Apache Junction Unified District (4443)
• NCES district ID: 0400790
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $44,930
• Composite: 15.34/100
• National rank: #9325
• State rank: #195 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Apache Junction

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #70
• US rank: #11242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apache Junction, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 56,611
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 31,191
• Household income: $57,786
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 686.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -128.31%
• Current HPI: 313.4666
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.50%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+19.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $59,900 ARMLS
• 2026-01-19 Price Changed $65,000 ARMLS
• 2025-11-16 Listed $79,900 ARMLS
• 2025-04-17 Sold (MLS) $40,000 ARMLS
• 2025-04-14 Pending — ARMLS
• 2025-03-27 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2025-03-03 Price Changed $40,000 ARMLS
• 2024-03-19 Listed $50,000 ARMLS