2431 S 371st St #20 · Lakeland South, WA 98003

$169,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 148 Days on market

Built 1988 Good condition $126/sqft · 24% above area Est $136k · 24% over ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Killarney Woods, a highly desirable all-ages community! This well-maintained and move-in ready 3 bedroom, 2 bath home offers a spacious and functional layout, ideal for comfortable living and entertaining. The generous primary suite includes a full private bath and ample space for relaxation. Situated on a premium corner lot, the exterior features a large deck, perfect for outdoor gatherings. The fully fenced backyard offers privacy and space for pets, gardening, or simply enjoying the outdoors. Offers plenty of parking and is centrally located just minutes from I-5, HWY 18, Tacoma or SeaTac Airport, and only 30 minutes to downtown Seattle, this home offers both convenience and a

Key facts

• Large deck
• Premium corner lot
• Centrally located

Tags

• PREMIUM CORNER LOT
• LARGE DECK
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• CENTRALLY LOCATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $169k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $898 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $169k).
• Recommended offer: $149k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.7% vs local median 2.9% in Lakeland South — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#113 in WA, #2,299 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Federal Way School District (suburban): math 35% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #207 of 291 in WA (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 231 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 10,555 units permitted in King County in 2024 (7,119 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• King County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.3% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $148,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.78%
• DSCR: 2.01
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $136,342
• List price: $169,000
• Delta: 23.95%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2500 S 370th St #54	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	9mo	$127,500	$95	86
2500 S 370th St #162	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+3%)	4mo	$160,000	$116	85
2500 S 370th St N #85	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (0%)	6mo	$125,000	$93	83
2500 S 370th St #213	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (0%)	7mo	$69,900	$52	82
2430 S 371st St #49	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-11%)	2mo	$190,000	$158	80
2500 S 370th St #32	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-7%)	0mo	$84,000	$67	79
37301 28th Ave S	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-7%)	0mo	$200,000	$160	77
2500 S 370th St #161	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+12%)	2mo	$175,000	$117	76
2500 S 370th St #225	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+12%)	0mo	$160,000	$107	73
2500 Alder St #33	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+7%)	2mo	$130,000	$90	49
2500 Alder St #16	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-7%)	5mo	$138,000	$111	47
2500 Alder St #52	0.59mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+14%)	5mo	$145,000	$94	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.33% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $28,114
• Equity at exit: $25,198

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.93×
• Total profit: $91,220
• Equity at exit: $14,612

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98003

• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 231
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,615 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$211 /mo · $2,535/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$549
• Net cashflow: $898

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,478

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1926 S 368th Pl #206 Federal Way, WA	2.0	2.5	1176	$2,995	$2.55	2d	1	0.38mi
2020 S 360th St Federal Way, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	971	$2,305	$2.37	2d	24	0.86mi
210 27th Ave Milton, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	837	$2,199	$2.63	2d	5	0.87mi
1211 S 376th St Milton, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	952	$3,350	$3.52	2d	63	0.93mi
207 Meridian Ave E Edgewood, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	835	$2,649	$3.17	2d	18	1.11mi
35703 16th Ave S Federal Way, WA	1.0–5.0	1.0–3.0	1098	$2,217	$2.02	2d	28	1.21mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $169,000 Active 148 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $169,000 Active 147 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $169,000 Active 146 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $169,000 Active 145 DOM
5. 2026-04-16
   price $179,950
6. 2026-02-18
   price $184,900
7. 2026-01-06
   listed $189,950 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,385
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$2,535
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,511
• − Management: −$2,511
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable income: $8,601
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,064
• After-tax cash flow: $8,715/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained and move-in ready 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a spacious and functional layout, ideal for comfortable living and entertaining.

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and rental value
• Both replace worn-out flooring — enhances interior aesthetics and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and rental value ↑
• Both replace worn-out flooring — enhances interior aesthetics and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Federal Way School District
• NCES district ID: 5302820
• Math proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $61,594
• Composite: 38.79/100
• National rank: #8361
• State rank: #207 of 291 in WA

Livability — Lakeland South

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #113
• US rank: #2299

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeland South, WA
• County: King County · 2,251,916 people
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 51,619
• Household income: $75,319
• Rent vs Own: 53.1% rent · 46.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2895.0

Population outlook (King County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,576,485 people
• By 2030: 2,803,316 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 3,255,921 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 3,706,444 · +43.9%
• By 2075: 4,746,063 · +84.2%
• By 2100: 5,407,730 · +109.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.79)
• Race & ethnicity: White 32% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 19% Two or more races 16% Asian 13% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2% Swedish 2%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · King

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+51.7) · D 74.2% · R 22.5% · Other 3.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.6pp toward D · 2008: 42.1pp · 2024: 51.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+51.7 2020: D+52.7 2016: D+50.4 2012: D+39.9 2008: D+42.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -623.87%
• Current HPI: 327.5371
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.33%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-5.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $179,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $184,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-06 Listed $189,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid