404 S Jules Ave · Cleveland, OK 74020

$189,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,379 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 84 Days on market

Built 1952 0.50 ac lot Est $130k · 46% over ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Located in Cleveland, Oklahoma, this charming residence is nestled on a quiet corner lot, offering picturesque lake views from its cozy front porch. The property features a spacious detached two-car garage, wired for 3 phase, complete with dual bay doors and a fully functioning upstairs living quarters with two large bedrooms featuring large closets. The apartment is suitable for guests or potential short-term/long-term rental. The fenced yard provides a nice space for pets. Inside the main house boasts two generously sized bedrooms with plenty of storage space and includes a nice covered parking area. In ground storm shelter included. Only a thirty minute drive to Tulsa. Just a mile from K

Key facts

• Lake views
• Fenced yard
• Storm shelter

Tags

• LAKE VIEWS
• DETACHED GARAGE
• UPSTAIRS LIVING QUARTERS
• FENCED YARD
• STORM SHELTER

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Carport; Garage with storage and shelving; 4 garage spaces
• Security: Storm shelter
• Utilities: Cable available; Electricity available; Natural gas available; Phone service available; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story; Slab foundation
• Construction: Built per public records; Wood frame construction; Asphalt/fiberglass roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio and porch; Porch; Patio; Storage structure; Garage apartment / second residence; Storm shelter; Chain link fencing; Corner lot; Mature trees; Waterfront frontage on Keystone Lake; Has view; Faces east

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven; Range; Electric water heater
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile; Vinyl; Wood veneer
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Window unit(s)
• Interior features: High-speed internet available; Cable TV available; Ceiling fan(s); Electric oven connection; Fireplace insert
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $49 ($583/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $153k (18.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $153k (18.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#93 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment C-, schools D-.
• Cleveland (town): math 21% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #169 of 270 in OK (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 86 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Pawnee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pawnee County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($178k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $153,272 (18.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.10%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $129,626
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
512 S Jules Ave	0.07mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,352 (-2%)	3mo	$170,000	$126	86
402 S Jules Ave	0.01mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,272 (-8%)	2mo	$48,000	$38	80
200 S Division St	0.60mi	2/1.0	1,380 (+0%)	12mo	$129,900	$94	62
311 N Division St	0.73mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,298 (-6%)	8mo	$178,000	$137	43
204 W Osage St	0.60mi	2/1.0	1,200 (-13%)	20mo	$90,000	$75	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.00×
• Total profit: $105,961
• Equity at exit: $170,266

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.85×
• Total profit: $309,477
• Equity at exit: $367,185

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 74020

• Home prices YoY: 6.9%
• Active inventory: 86
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,533 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$92 /mo · $1,109/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $49

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,471

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $156	-5% $102	+0% $49	+5% $-5	+10% $-58
Rent	-10% $-73	-5% $-12	+0% $49	+5% $109	+10% $170
Rate	-1.0pp $144	-0.5pp $97	base $49	+0.5pp $0	+1.0pp $-50

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,000 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,000 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,000 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,000 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,000 Active 79 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $189,000 Active 76 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,000 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,000 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $189,000 Active 73 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,000 Active 69 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,000 Active 68 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,000 Active 67 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,000 Active 66 DOM
14. 2026-03-26
    listed $189,000 Active
15. 2026-03-25
    historical
16. 2026-02-15
    price $189,000
17. 2025-11-18
    price $199,000
18. 2025-09-25
    listed $240,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,109 · $92/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,701 · $142/mo
• Expected delta: +$592/yr (+$49/mo · 53.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,393
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$1,109
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,471
• − Management: −$1,471
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable loss: −$2,689
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$645
• After-tax cash flow: $1,228/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland
• NCES district ID: 4008040
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $45,642
• Composite: 17.52/100
• National rank: #9049
• State rank: #169 of 270 in OK

Livability — Cleveland

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #93
• US rank: #10844

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cleveland, OK
• Population (ZIP): 7,365

Population outlook (Pawnee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,219 people
• By 2030: 16,028 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 15,724 · -3.1%
• By 2050: 15,563 · -4.0%
• By 2075: 15,905 · -1.9%
• By 2100: 16,058 · -1.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 12% Native American 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pawnee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.9) · D 19.7% · R 78.6% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.4pp · 2024: -58.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.9 2020: R+57.5 2016: R+53.2 2012: R+40.0 2008: R+37.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.01%
• Current HPI: 218.04
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

-21.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Listed $189,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2026-03-25 Listing Removed — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2026-02-15 Price Changed $189,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $199,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2025-09-25 Listed $240,000 MLS Technology, Inc.

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,109 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.