4105 N Garfield Ave #81 · Loveland, CO 80538

$23,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured · 80 Days on market

Built 2026 Est $32k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* THIS IS A RESALE LISTING * You'll love living in this 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home within a wonderful family-friendly community. Check out the awesome amenities your community has to offer such as scenic views, community events, a playground, and more! This home won't be on the market long, so call us today for more information or to schedule a tour. Deposits & Fees are subject to change.

Key facts

• Scenic views
• Community events
• Playground

Tags

• SCENIC VIEWS
• COMMUNITY EVENTS
• PLAYGROUND

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $27,000

Exterior

• Utilities: Natural gas heating (utility); Central air conditioning (utility)
• Home design: Spec inventory type; Plan name 92613
• Exterior features: Located at 4105 N Garfield Ave #81, Loveland, CO 80538

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: 720 sq ft living area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $23k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $23k).
• Recommended offer: $22k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 72.0% vs local median 2.9% in Loveland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#52 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, amenities A; Watch: crime C-, commute F, cost of living F.
• Thompson School District R-2J (suburban): math 28% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #28 of 86 in CO (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 436 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,786 units permitted in Larimer County in 2024 (402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $159 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $690 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Larimer County population projected at +51% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($22k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $21,620 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 7.81% ✓
• Cap rate: 72.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 234.67%
• DSCR: 11.44
• GRM: 1.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $32,400
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4108 Garfield Ave #18	0.24mi	2/1.0	784 (+9%)	14mo	$35,000	$45	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.11% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.91×
• Total profit: $76,709
• Equity at exit: $3,429

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 27.55×
• Total profit: $171,008
• Equity at exit: $1,989

Cash invested: $6,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80538

• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 436
• Price-to-rent: 1.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,795 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$121
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$29 /mo · $345/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$377
• Net cashflow: $1,259

Break-even live

Break-even rent $201

Max offer price $23,000

Occupancy floor 25%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,275	-5% $1,267	+0% $1,259	+5% $1,251	+10% $1,243
Rent	-10% $1,118	-5% $1,188	+0% $1,259	+5% $1,330	+10% $1,401
Rate	-1.0pp $1,271	-0.5pp $1,265	base $1,259	+0.5pp $1,253	+1.0pp $1,247

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $5,750
• Closing costs: $690
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4830 N Grant Ave Loveland, CO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	866	$1,662	$1.92	24d	1	0.44mi
3310 Butternut Dr Unit 3322 Loveland, CO	1.0	1.0	550	$1,350	$2.45	24d	1	0.66mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $23,000 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $23,000 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $23,000 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $23,000 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $23,000 Active 73 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $23,000 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $23,000 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-05-30
   days on market $23,000 Active 70 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,544
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,288
• − Property taxes: −$345
• − Insurance: −$115
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,724
• − Management: −$1,724
• − Depreciation: −$669
• Taxable income: $15,680
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,763
• After-tax cash flow: $11,349/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Thompson School District R-2J
• NCES district ID: 0805400
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $63,040
• Composite: 34.01/100
• National rank: #5313
• State rank: #28 of 86 in CO

Livability — Loveland

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #52
• US rank: #5353

Category grades

Amenities A Commute F Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Loveland, CO
• County: Larimer County · 338,255 people
• City population: 94,535
• Metro: Fort Collins, CO
• Population (ZIP): 50,110
• Household income: $86,671
• Rent vs Own: 30.6% rent · 69.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1447.0

Population outlook (Larimer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,361 people
• By 2030: 457,762 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 542,310 · +30.6%
• By 2050: 627,048 · +51.0%
• By 2075: 833,722 · +100.7%
• By 2100: 952,590 · +129.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 10% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Larimer

• 2024 margin: D (+17.6) · D 57.4% · R 39.8% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: 9.7pp · 2024: 17.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.6 2020: D+15.4 2016: D+4.9 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+9.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -515.25%
• Current HPI: 242.9397
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.11%
• Metro: Fort Collins, CO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B