Canon Plan · Brookshire, TX 77423

$369,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,943 sqft · SingleFamily · 215 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new two-story home boasts a spacious and modern layout. At the back of the home on the first floor is a luxurious owner's suite showcasing a full bathroom and walk-in closet, with a secondary bedroom located off the foyer. A convenient flex space is tucked away off the main living area, which features direct access to a covered patio for seamless indoor-outdoor transitions and entertaining. On the second floor, three additional bedrooms surround a versatile game room, ready for hosting guests or lounging at the end of the day.

Key facts

• Great location
• Community lagoon
• Future school sites

Tags

• COMMUNITY LAGOON
• NEIGHBORHOOD PARKS
• FUTURE SCHOOL SITES
• GREAT LOCATION

🏗️ New construction. The $369,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $388,945.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $370k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-539 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $311k (16.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $272k (26.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $272k (26.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#960 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Royal ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #744 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Royal El (math 27% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 762 students, 78% FRL); Royal J H (math 22% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 593 students, 73% FRL); Royal H S (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 842 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools at 74% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1559 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 215 days — a 12% lower offer ($326k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $272,016 (26.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 215 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.94%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $388,945
• List price: $369,990
• Delta: -4.87%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2024 Blue Mar Dr	0.15mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,900 (-2%)	3mo	$532,132	$183	81
2013 Blue Mar Dr	0.11mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,725 (-7%)	0mo	$389,900	$143	77
1056 Selene Sky Dr	0.25mi	5/3.0	2,733 (-7%)	1mo	$369,990	$135	76
4032 Sun Burst Ln	0.26mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,872 (-2%)	4mo	$394,990	$138	74
2020 Blue Mar Dr	0.15mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,744 (-7%)	4mo	$374,990	$137	74
4037 Sun Burst Ln	0.26mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,837 (-4%)	2mo	$407,990	$144	73
2057 Sunflower View St	0.30mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,837 (-4%)	1mo	$405,990	$143	72
2061 Sunflower View St	0.31mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,872 (-2%)	4mo	$393,990	$137	72
2109 Sunflower View St	0.32mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,837 (-4%)	3mo	$392,990	$139	70
4009 Sun Burst Ln	0.29mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,778 (-6%)	4mo	$386,990	$139	67
1044 Star Skye Dr	0.26mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,717 (-8%)	3mo	$381,290	$140	65
1025 Sunlit Cir	0.39mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,717 (-8%)	1mo	$289,990	$107	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-105,285
• Equity at exit: $57,993

10-year hold

• IRR: -50.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.53×
• Total profit: $-166,524
• Equity at exit: $33,629

Cash invested: $108,905 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 98 active · 35 under contract
• Months of supply: 18.4 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $378,990 ($143/sqft)
• Median days on market: 84 d
• This list price: 41% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -7.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77423

• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1559
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,720 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,040
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$486 /mo · $5,834/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$571
• Net cashflow: $-539

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,402

Max offer price $310,953

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-270	-5% $-405	+0% $-539	+5% $-673	+10% $-808
Rent	-10% $-754	-5% $-646	+0% $-539	+5% $-432	+10% $-324
Rate	-1.0pp $-343	-0.5pp $-440	base $-539	+0.5pp $-640	+1.0pp $-742

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,236
• Closing costs: $11,668
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $378,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family home (Plan: Canon)New construction — Plan inventory
• Exterior features: Located at 4005 Shimmer Sol Dr, Brookshire TX 77423Living area approximately 2,943

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Active new-construction plan (Canon)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $369,990 Active 215 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $369,990 Active 214 DOM
3. 2026-11-07
   price $369,990 Active 213 DOM
4. 2026-11-06
   days on market $362,990 Active 213 DOM
5. 2026-11-05
   days on market $362,990 Active 212 DOM
6. 2026-11-04
   days on market $362,990 Active 211 DOM
7. 2026-11-02
   days on market $362,990 Active 209 DOM
8. 2026-11-01
   days on market $362,990 Active 208 DOM
9. 2026-10-31
   days on market $362,990 Active 207 DOM
10. 2026-10-30
    pricedays on market $362,990 Active 206 DOM
11. 2026-10-29
    days on market $367,990 Active 205 DOM
12. 2026-10-28
    days on market $367,990 Active 204 DOM
13. 2026-10-27
    days on market $367,990 Active 203 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $367,990 Active 202 DOM
15. 2026-10-26
    days on market $367,990 Active 201 DOM
16. 2026-10-24
    days on market $367,990 Active 200 DOM
17. 2026-10-23
    days on market $367,990 Active 199 DOM
18. 2026-10-22
    days on market $367,990 Active 198 DOM
19. 2026-10-21
    days on market $367,990 Active 197 DOM
20. 2026-10-20
    days on market $367,990 Active 196 DOM
21. 2026-10-19
    days on market $367,990 Active 195 DOM
22. 2026-10-18
    days on market $367,990 Active 194 DOM
23. 2026-10-17
    days on market $367,990 Active 193 DOM
24. 2026-10-16
    days on market $367,990 Active 192 DOM
25. 2026-10-15
    days on market $367,990 Active 191 DOM
26. 2026-10-14
    days on market $367,990 Active 190 DOM
27. 2026-10-13
    days on market $367,990 Active 189 DOM
28. 2026-10-12
    days on market $367,990 Active 188 DOM
29. 2026-10-11
    days on market $367,990 Active 187 DOM
30. 2026-10-10
    pricedays on market $367,990 Active 186 DOM
31. 2026-10-09
    days on market $371,990 Active 185 DOM
32. 2026-10-08
    days on market $371,990 Active 184 DOM
33. 2026-10-07
    days on market $371,990 Active 183 DOM
34. 2026-10-06
    days on market $371,990 Active 182 DOM
35. 2026-10-05
    days on market $371,990 Active 181 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $371,990 Active 180 DOM
37. 2026-10-04
    days on market $371,990 Active 179 DOM
38. 2026-10-02
    days on market $371,990 Active 178 DOM
39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $371,990 Active 177 DOM
40. 2026-09-30
    days on market $371,990 Active 176 DOM
41. 2026-09-29
    price $371,990 Active 175 DOM
42. 2026-09-29
    days on market $376,990 Active 175 DOM
43. 2026-09-28
    days on market $376,990 Active 174 DOM
44. 2026-09-27
    days on market $376,990 Active 173 DOM
45. 2026-09-26
    days on market $376,990 Active 172 DOM
46. 2026-09-25
    days on market $376,990 Active 171 DOM
47. 2026-09-24
    days on market $376,990 Active 170 DOM
48. 2026-09-23
    days on market $376,990 Active 169 DOM
49. 2026-09-22
    days on market $376,990 Active 168 DOM
50. 2026-09-21
    days on market $376,990 Active 167 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,642
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,787
• − Property taxes: −$5,834
• − Insurance: −$1,945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,611
• − Management: −$2,611
• − Depreciation: −$11,315
• Taxable loss: −$13,461
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,231
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,237/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in excellent condition with a modern and spacious layout. It is move-in ready and presents a great opportunity for investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior brick — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Interior touch-ups — Updating the interior can make the home more appealing to potential buyers or renters. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 22/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Royal El F TX #3,247/4,322 Nat'l #31,549/41,679 Middle Royal J H F TX #1,341/1,662 Nat'l #11,105/14,009 High Royal H S F TX #1,377/1,632 Nat'l #13,899/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Royal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838190
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,059
• Composite: 19.55/100
• National rank: #8760
• State rank: #744 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Brookshire

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #960
• US rank: #17059

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Waller County · 60,772 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,767
• Household income: $84,490
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% White 41% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Cuban 2%
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.28%
• Current HPI: 204.8709
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $378,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family home (Plan: Canon)New construction — Plan inventory
• Exterior features: Located at 4005 Shimmer Sol Dr, Brookshire TX 77423Living area approximately 2,943

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Active new-construction plan (Canon)