3851 Northern Key Dr · Plant City, FL 33565

$409,635

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,896 sqft · Land · 41 Days on market

Built 2026

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This single-family home boasts five bedrooms across two stories. A versatile flex room sits off the foyer and a modern open-concept design brightens the kitchen, dining room and family room. The sprawling owner's suite enjoys privacy on the ground floor with a full-sized bathroom and walk-in closet, while the remaining four bedrooms and spacious loft are upstairs.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 40 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $410k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $92 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $316k (22.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $316k (22.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#227 in FL, #3,587 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, commute F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 307 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,157/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($73k/yr) (locally 152% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($397k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $315,660 (22.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.96%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-60,752
• Equity at exit: $61,078

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-46,257
• Equity at exit: $35,418

Cash invested: $114,698 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33565

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Active inventory: 307
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,157 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,148
• Tax from tax record: −$83 /mo · $998/yr
• Insurance: −$171
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$663
• Net cashflow: $92

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,040

Max offer price $409,635

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $102,409
• Closing costs: $12,289
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3911 N Maryland Ave Plant City, FL	4.0	3.0	2223	$2,600	$1.17	24d	1	0.36mi
3615 Natural Trace St Plant City, FL	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,400	$1.24	18d	1	0.53mi
2505 Victorious Falls Ave Plant City, FL	6.0	3.0	2614	$3,100	$1.19	24d	1	0.60mi
1458 Tahitian Sunrise Dr Plant City, FL	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,395	$1.24	24d	1	0.79mi
3827 Sunny Spring St Plant City, FL	4.0	3.0	2756	$3,150	$1.14	24d	1	1.27mi
3809 Sunny Spring St Plant City, FL	5.0	3.0	2964	$2,800	$0.94	24d	1	1.30mi
3440 Ivy Hollow Dr Plant City, FL	5.0	3.0	2605	$2,750	$1.06	24d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $409,635 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $409,635 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   price $409,635 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   pricedays on market $409,135 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   pricedays on market $408,635 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-05-18
   price $406,635 366-char remark
7. 2026-05-16
   price $406,135 366-char remark
8. 2026-05-15
   price $405,635 366-char remark
9. 2026-05-10
   price $405,135 366-char remark
10. 2026-05-09
    price $404,635 366-char remark
11. 2026-05-05
    price $404,135 366-char remark
12. 2026-05-04
    price $403,635 366-char remark
13. 2026-05-02
    price $403,135 366-char remark
14. 2026-04-27
    price $410,135 366-char remark
15. 2026-04-26
    price $408,135 366-char remark
16. 2026-04-24
    price $407,135 366-char remark
17. 2026-04-23
    listed $406,135 Active 366-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $998 · $83/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,400 · $283/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,402/yr (+$200/mo · 240.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,879
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,946
• − Property taxes: −$998
• − Insurance: −$2,048
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,030
• − Management: −$3,030
• − Depreciation: −$11,917
• Taxable loss: −$6,090
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,462
• After-tax cash flow: $2,562/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Plant City

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #227
• US rank: #3587

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Plant City, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 68,525
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,108
• Household income: $73,414
• Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 152.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.17%
• Current HPI: 347.2475
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Sold (Public Records) $2,391,100 Public Records