10323 Henry Rd #8 · Berlin, MD 21811

$79,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · SingleFamily · 69 Days on market

Built 1992 Good condition $79/sqft · 60% below area ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to tranquil Sunset Lakes. Located in Berlin and only minutes from Ocean City. This well maintained mobile home, situated on a spacious corner lot, is move in ready. With 2 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms and updated LVP flooring throughout, this could be your low maintenance home on the shore or your weekend getaway spot. A roomy 8X12 barn conveys and the heat pump was just replaced in 2024. Lot Rent $625/month.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 1992
• Listed 69 days

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $79,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$195,974) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $79k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $79k).
• Recommended offer: $74k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 25.5% vs local median 3.6% in Berlin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#55 in MD, #2,021 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: commute F.
• Worcester County Public Schools (town): math 30% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #6 of 24 in MD (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 315 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 354 units permitted in Worcester County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $546 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Worcester County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $74,260 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.90% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 68.48%
• DSCR: 4.05
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $195,974
• List price: $79,000
• Delta: -59.69%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10323-LOT #21 Henry Rd	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,080 (+8%)	8mo	$127,500	$118	69
10143 Germantown Rd	0.49mi	2/1.0	864 (-14%)	23mo	$275,000	$318	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 67.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.06×
• Total profit: $67,625
• Equity at exit: $11,779

10-year hold

• IRR: 72.1%
• Equity multiple: 8.35×
• Total profit: $162,545
• Equity at exit: $6,830

Cash invested: $22,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21811

• Home prices YoY: -29.0%
• Active inventory: 315
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,289 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$99 /mo · $1,185/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$481
• Net cashflow: $1,262

Break-even live

Break-even rent $691

Max offer price $79,000

Occupancy floor 40%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,750
• Closing costs: $2,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
509 Bay St Berlin, MD	2.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	880	$1,675	$1.90	44d	3	0.77mi
509 Bay St Berlin, MD	2.0	1.0	760	$1,675	$2.20	21d	1	0.77mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,000 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,000 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,000 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,000 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $79,000 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $79,000 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $87,000 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $87,000 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $87,000 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $87,000 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $87,000 Active 53 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $87,000 Active 52 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $87,000 Active 51 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $87,000 Active 50 DOM
15. 2026-05-19
    price $87,000 424-char remark

    Show marketing remark (424 chars)

    Welcome home to tranquil Sunset Lakes. Located in Berlin and only minutes from Ocean City. This well maintained mobile home, situated on a spacious corner lot, is move in ready. With 2 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms and updated LVP flooring throughout, this could be your low maintenance home on the shore or your weekend getaway spot. A roomy 8X12 barn conveys and the heat pump was just replaced in 2024. Lot Rent $625/month.

16. 2026-04-10
    listed $92,000 Active 424-char remark

    Show marketing remark (424 chars)

    Welcome home to tranquil Sunset Lakes. Located in Berlin and only minutes from Ocean City. This well maintained mobile home, situated on a spacious corner lot, is move in ready. With 2 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms and updated LVP flooring throughout, this could be your low maintenance home on the shore or your weekend getaway spot. A roomy 8X12 barn conveys and the heat pump was just replaced in 2024. Lot Rent $625/month.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,466
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,425
• − Property taxes: −$1,185
• − Insurance: −$395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,197
• − Management: −$2,197
• − Depreciation: −$2,298
• Taxable income: $14,768
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,544
• After-tax cash flow: $11,602/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained mobile home is move-in ready with updated LVP flooring throughout. It offers a good condition score and is located in a tranquil setting near the beach, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both update kitchen appliances — modernizes kitchen and improves rental appeal
• Both install new flooring in bathrooms — enhances aesthetics and improves resale value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both update kitchen appliances — modernizes kitchen and improves rental appeal ↑
• Both install new flooring in bathrooms — enhances aesthetics and improves resale value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Worcester County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400720
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $56,748
• Composite: 32.6/100
• National rank: #5672
• State rank: #6 of 24 in MD

Livability — Berlin

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #55
• US rank: #2021

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Worcester County · 35,603 people
• City population: 24,377
• Metro: Salisbury, MD-DE
• Population (ZIP): 24,377
• Household income: $90,082
• Rent vs Own: 16.7% rent · 83.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 551.0

Population outlook (Worcester County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,363 people
• By 2030: 51,191 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 50,459 · -1.8%
• By 2050: 49,451 · -3.7%
• By 2075: 48,533 · -5.5%
• By 2100: 44,223 · -13.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Black 9% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Worcester

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 38.0% · R 60.0% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -15.5pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+27.9 2012: R+18.3 2008: R+15.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -119.52%
• Current HPI: 292.9004
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Salisbury, MD-DE
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

-5.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $87,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $92,000 BRIGHT MLS