10611 Rebel Rd · Houston, TX 77016

$175,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,443 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 176 Days on market

Built 1969 7,260 sqft lot $121/sqft · 27% below area Est $240k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fantastic opportunity to make this 3/1.5 home your own. This home offers considerable potential, featuring an enclosed porch and a shed that can be converted into additional rooms. This is a landlord's dream house, featuring a large backyard, a quiet neighborhood, and is just minutes away from downtown. Enjoy no HOA! Call or Text 832-987-3360

Key facts

• Large backyard
• Enclosed porch
• Quiet neighborhood

Tags

• ENCLOSED PORCH
• LARGE BACKYARD
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $150 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 376 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,810/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($48k/yr) (locally 1297% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (8.7% appreciation + 0.4% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 176 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 4% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 176 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.66%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $240,422
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: -27.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6702 Leedale St	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,458 (+1%)	2mo	$139,900	$96	67
10315 Vinca Minor Ln	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,412 (-2%)	1mo	$276,240	$196	64
7904 Cassie Pine Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,412 (-2%)	0mo	$281,040	$199	63
7902 Elowen Grove Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,412 (-2%)	2mo	$277,290	$196	62
7918 Cassie Pine Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,412 (-2%)	0mo	$278,290	$197	60
7450 Ida Wells Forest Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,645 (+14%)	2mo	$220,000	$134	60
7914 Cassie Pine Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,401 (-3%)	0mo	$274,290	$196	60
7227 Colton St	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,510 (+5%)	0mo	$214,000	$142	57
7321 Wiley Rd	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,262 (-12%)	2mo	$179,900	$143	53
7203 Gore Dr	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,609 (+12%)	2mo	$159,000	$99	52
7630 Yoe St	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-10%)	2mo	$239,000	$184	49
7234 Boggess Rd	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,236 (-14%)	1mo	$168,000	$136	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.65% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $84,470
• Equity at exit: $140,748

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.70×
• Total profit: $230,250
• Equity at exit: $287,166

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77016

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 376
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,810 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$290 /mo · $3,480/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $150

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,621

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $249	-5% $199	+0% $150	+5% $100	+10% $51
Rent	-10% $7	-5% $78	+0% $150	+5% $221	+10% $293
Rate	-1.0pp $238	-0.5pp $194	base $150	+0.5pp $104	+1.0pp $58

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10750 Nyla Spring St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,975	$1.32	20d	1	0.18mi
7726 Spinet St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1456	$2,375	$1.63	9d	1	0.28mi
7314 Saunders Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1339	$1,723	$1.29	15d	1	0.40mi
10314 Woodwick St Unit 1283919P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1496	$3,865	$2.58	0d	1	0.48mi
7325 Boggess Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,850	$1.18	18d	1	0.50mi
7325 Boggess Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,850	$1.18	45d	1	0.50mi
10474 Red Orchid Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1553	$1,875	$1.21	25d	1	0.52mi
6822 Leedale St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	978	$1,500	$1.53	45d	1	0.57mi
10708 Lavender Cotton Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1406	$2,150	$1.53	45d	1	0.59mi
8003 Alpine Bearberry Dr Houston, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1696	$2,000	$1.18	9d	1	0.64mi
6823 Hanley Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1303	$1,610	$1.24	6d	1	0.68mi
7252 Parker Rd Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	916	$1,650	$1.80	45d	1	0.74mi
7176 Parker Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1152	$1,200	$1.04	45d	1	0.85mi
10221 Bretton Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1350	$1,700	$1.26	25d	1	0.91mi
7223 Valmont Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1546	$1,595	$1.03	45d	1	0.96mi
11235 Lemond Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1368	$1,450	$1.06	23d	1	1.01mi
8102 Rhobell St Unit A Houston, TX	4.0	3.5	1567	$1,750	$1.12	45d	1	1.10mi
8214 Parker Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$1,560	$0.97	9d	1	1.13mi
10329 Wicklowe St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,400	$1.11	22d	1	1.17mi
7201 Hallshire Dr Unit 235 Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$850	$0.77	45d	1	1.19mi
7201 Hallshire Dr Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	985	$740	$0.75	45d	1	1.19mi
7201 Hallshire Dr Unit 222 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	985	$700	$0.71	45d	1	1.19mi
8213 Bigwood St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1150	$1,595	$1.39	45d	1	1.26mi
8122 Sterlingshire St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1160	$1,450	$1.25	16d	1	1.27mi
8122 Sterlingshire St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1160	$1,525	$1.31	16d	1	1.27mi
8126 Sterlingshire St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,350	$1.17	25d	1	1.28mi
8302 Caddo Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	896	$1,450	$1.62	45d	1	1.32mi
8314 Madera Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1608	$1,495	$0.93	25d	1	1.33mi
9550 N Wayside Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	896	$1,399	$1.56	2d	5	1.33mi
11435 Raincove Dr Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,345	$1.34	5d	1	1.35mi
9410 Firnat St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	0d	1	1.43mi
9410 Firnat St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	45d	1	1.43mi
8235 Locksley Rd Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1608	$1,525	$0.95	9d	1	1.47mi
9324 Firnat St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,900	$1.19	23d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on marketlisting id $175,000 Active 176 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $115,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-04
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-04
   pricedays on marketlisting id $115,000 Active 1 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $175,000 Active 169 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $175,000 Active 168 DOM
7. 2026-01-16
   price $175,000 345-char remark

   Show marketing remark (345 chars)

   Fantastic opportunity to make this 3/1.5 home your own. This home offers considerable potential, featuring an enclosed porch and a shed that can be converted into additional rooms. This is a landlord's dream house, featuring a large backyard, a quiet neighborhood, and is just minutes away from downtown. Enjoy no HOA! Call or Text 832-987-3360

8. 2025-12-14
   listed $169,000 Active 345-char remark

   Show marketing remark (345 chars)

   Fantastic opportunity to make this 3/1.5 home your own. This home offers considerable potential, featuring an enclosed porch and a shed that can be converted into additional rooms. This is a landlord's dream house, featuring a large backyard, a quiet neighborhood, and is just minutes away from downtown. Enjoy no HOA! Call or Text 832-987-3360

9. 2025-10-30
   historical
10. 2025-09-15
    listed $165,000 Active
11. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,480 · $290/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,480 · $290/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,725
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$3,480
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,738
• − Management: −$1,738
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$1,000
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$240
• After-tax cash flow: $2,035/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,841
• Household income: $47,677
• Rent vs Own: 38.8% rent · 61.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (56%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 28%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 37%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.65%
• Current HPI: 315.6765
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+6.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $175,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2025-12-14 Listed $169,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2025-10-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-15 Listed $165,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,480 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.