8021 Old Pacific Hwy #4 · Castle Rock, WA 98661

$49,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,000 sqft · Manufactured public records · 110 Days on market

Built 1963 5,452 sqft lot $49/sqft · 144% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nice small 55+ community. Nestled amongst nature. This is you opportunity to own your own 2 bedroom with an open concept floor plan, with a nice covered deck with carport and shed. This home has been remodeled and yet you can add your own personal touch. Conveniently located close to town but yet still private and quiet location. Home is being "SOLD IS, AS IS" Ready to move-in and make your own. Seller is motivated.

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Remodeled
• Carport

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• COVERED DECK
• CARPORT
• REMODELED
• PRIVATE LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $49k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $49k).
• Recommended offer: $45k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 32.6% vs local median 2.2% in Castle Rock — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#209 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• Castle Rock School District (town): math 36% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #174 of 291 in WA (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 266 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 348 units permitted in Cowlitz County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $339 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cowlitz County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($45k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $44,590 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 32.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 94.05%
• DSCR: 5.18
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $20,081
• List price: $49,000
• Delta: 144.01%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8021 Old Pacific Hwy N #11	0.00mi	2/1.0	864 (-14%)	8mo	$20,000	$23	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 93.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.29×
• Total profit: $58,905
• Equity at exit: $7,306

10-year hold

• IRR: 96.4%
• Equity multiple: 10.69×
• Total profit: $132,880
• Equity at exit: $4,237

Cash invested: $13,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98661

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 266
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,726 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$257
• Tax from tax record: −$11 /mo · $126/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $1,075

Break-even live

Break-even rent $364

Max offer price $49,000

Occupancy floor 33%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,250
• Closing costs: $1,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
498 Kroll Rd Castle Rock, WA	2.0	2.0	988	$1,950	$1.97	43d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $49,000 Active 110 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,000 Active 109 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,000 Active 108 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,000 Active 107 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,000 Active 106 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $49,000 Active 104 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,000 Active 103 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $49,000 Active 101 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,000 Active 100 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $49,000 Active 99 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,000 Active 98 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $49,000 Active 95 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $49,000 Active 94 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,000 Active 93 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,000 Active 92 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,000 Active 91 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $49,000 Active 90 DOM
18. 2026-03-01
    listed $49,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $126 · $11/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $480 · $40/mo
• Expected delta: +$354/yr (+$29/mo · 279.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,707
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,745
• − Property taxes: −$126
• − Insurance: −$245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,657
• − Management: −$1,657
• − Depreciation: −$1,425
• Taxable income: $12,852
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,084
• After-tax cash flow: $9,819/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Castle Rock School District
• NCES district ID: 5300990
• Math proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $51,823
• Composite: 41.78/100
• National rank: #7162
• State rank: #174 of 291 in WA

Livability — Castle Rock

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #209
• US rank: #5888

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Clark County · 513,189 people
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• Population (ZIP): 50,743
• Household income: $76,913
• Rent vs Own: 57.3% rent · 42.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2384.0

Population outlook (Cowlitz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 104,780 people
• By 2030: 103,980 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 100,769 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 96,685 · -7.7%
• By 2075: 86,454 · -17.5%
• By 2100: 74,052 · -29.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 14% Black 4% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 3% Subsaharan African 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 14% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Cowlitz

• 2024 margin: R (+19.9) · D 38.7% · R 58.6% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.1pp toward R · 2008: 11.2pp · 2024: -19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.9 2020: R+17.4 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+4.4 2008: D+11.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -567.83%
• Current HPI: 308.3632
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-01 Listed $49,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+50.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $126 · +10.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.