2 Moon Rd Lot 2 · Ward, AR 72176

$199,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,380 sqft · SingleFamily · 107 Days on market

Built 2025 Est $207k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• ARV discount +9.2/15.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your NEW home! This 3 bedroom 2 bath home is perfect! Open floor plan, big living room. Great counter tops, tiled backsplash, Painted cabinets, stainless steel and black appliances, dishwasher and built in microwave! Master bath has a double vanities and tile shower. All bedrooms have great closets and ceiling fans! Master and living room are huge! Call today!

Key facts

• Built 2025
• Listed 106 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Financing options include VA, FHA, conventional, cash, and Rural Development

Exterior

• Parking: Parking pads
• Utilities: Public sewer; Public water; Electric service via cooperative; Insulated windows and doors; Tankless water heater
• Home design: New construction; Brick and metal/vinyl siding exterior
• Construction: Slab foundation; Architectural shingle roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Paved road access; Level lot in a subdivision; Inside city limits

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing stove; Microwave; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal
• Flooring: Concrete floors
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Washer connection; Dryer connection (electric); Electric water heater; Smoke detectors; Walk-in closets; Ceiling fans; Walk-in shower
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer and dryer connections

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-6 ($-68/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (0.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (12.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (12.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.9% in Ward — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#66 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Cabot School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #29 of 238 in AR (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 156 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 185 units permitted in Lonoke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (5.3% local appreciation)).
• Lonoke County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (5.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($181k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,366 (12.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.12%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $207,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
57 Bryson Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,364 (-1%)	2mo	$204,900	$150	72
1 Moon Ridge Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,511 (+10%)	5mo	$219,900	$146	69
39 Bryson Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,454 (+5%)	7mo	$224,000	$154	65
13 Oakland Cir	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,382 (+0%)	2mo	$190,000	$137	65
14 Sugar Cv	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,319 (-4%)	11mo	$206,000	$156	64
17 Jacob Cv	0.30mi	4/2.0	1,522 (+10%)	6mo	$210,000	$138	64
19 Bryson Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,516 (+10%)	7mo	$210,000	$139	62
19 Sooiee Cv	0.46mi	4/2.0	1,517 (+10%)	3mo	$231,187	$152	60
13 Kasi Cv	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,556 (+13%)	6mo	$210,000	$135	57
31 Oakland Cir	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,350 (-2%)	6mo	$208,000	$154	57
14 Oakland Cir	0.60mi	4/2.0	1,476 (+7%)	5mo	$214,000	$145	56
201 Sweetwater Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (-13%)	10mo	$220,000	$183	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.35% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.89×
• Total profit: $49,585
• Equity at exit: $117,081

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.66×
• Total profit: $148,479
• Equity at exit: $205,723

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72176

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 156
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,734 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$249 /mo · $2,985/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $-6

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,741

Max offer price $198,182

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $132	-5% $63	+0% $-6	+5% $-74	+10% $-143
Rent	-10% $-143	-5% $-74	+0% $-6	+5% $63	+10% $131
Rate	-1.0pp $95	-0.5pp $45	base $-6	+0.5pp $-57	+1.0pp $-110

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
33 Ferguson Dr Austin, AR	4.0	2.0	1559	$1,450	$0.93	15d	1	0.93mi
65 Birchwood Dr Ward, AR	3.0	2.0	1302	$1,650	$1.27	22d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,000 Active 107 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,000 Active 99 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,000 Active 96 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 94 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 93 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,000 Active 90 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 89 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 88 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 87 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 86 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 85 DOM
17. 2026-03-06
    listed $199,000 New Listing
18. 2026-03-05
    historical
19. 2025-09-19
    listed $199,000 New Listing

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,804
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,985
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,664
• − Management: −$1,664
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$3,441
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$826
• After-tax cash flow: $758/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cabot School District
• NCES district ID: 0503750
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $55,993
• Composite: 39.66/100
• National rank: #3912
• State rank: #29 of 238 in AR

Livability — Ward

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #66
• US rank: #8464

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lonoke County · 46,130 people
• City population: 8,678
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• Population (ZIP): 8,678
• Household income: $68,840
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 90.0

Population outlook (Lonoke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 78,072 people
• By 2030: 80,673 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 84,977 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 87,778 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 91,398 · +17.1%
• By 2100: 87,858 · +12.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2% Iranian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lonoke

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.7) · D 22.2% · R 75.8% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -53.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.7 2020: R+52.8 2016: R+53.3 2012: R+50.9 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.35%
• Current HPI: 208.9387
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-06 Listed $199,000 CARMLS
• 2026-03-05 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2025-09-19 Listed $199,000 CARMLS