945 Ella T Grasso Blvd · New Haven, CT 06511

$439,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,484 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1950 8,276 sqft lot Est $304k · 44% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.5/30.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

2 family home available at a great price. In need of rehab. Please do not enter back deck or bathrooms, deemed unsafe. the floor is rotted out.

Key facts

• New ductwork
• New vinyl siding
• New roof

Tags

• RENOVATED TWO-FAMILY HOME
• HIGH-EFFICIENCY GAS FURNACES
• NEW DUCTWORK
• NAVIEN TANKLESS WATER HEATERS
• NEW ROOF
• NEW VINYL SIDING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Paved off-street parking and driveway; 4 total parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water connected; Public sewer connected; Natural gas service
• Home design: Multi-family (2-family) property; Living area approximately 1484 (public record); Private paved driveway
• Construction: Frame construction; Block foundation; Asphalt shingle roof; Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Level lot; Enclosed porch and open porch; Gutters; Exterior lighting

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen includes in-unit laundry location
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Hot air heating using natural gas
• Interior features: 10 total rooms; Full basement with hatchway access; Attic accessible via hatch; Home lighting automation
• Laundry & utility: Laundry hookups in both units (in-unit); Tankless natural gas hot water

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $439k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $177 ($2k/yr) — positive. Per door: $88/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $392k (10.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $392k (10.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.8% in New Haven — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#31 in CT, #2,190 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, crime F.
• New Haven School District (urban): math 12% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #147 of 153 in CT (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Betsy Ross Arts Magnet School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #161 of 175 statewide, top 93%, 327 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools at 70% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 140 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,059 units permitted in South Central Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (779 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,917/mo this rent would consume 78% of the median local household income ($60k/yr) (locally 4999% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $170k; list at $439k implies a 158% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wind risk, 59% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $391,700 (10.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.73%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $304,220
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
945 Ella T Grasso Blvd	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,484 (0%)	12mo	$170,000	$115	90
262 Davenport Ave	0.53mi	4/2.0	1,440 (-3%)	4mo	$275,000	$191	67
43 Elliott St	0.56mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (+4%)	7mo	$265,000	$173	58
156 West St	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,556 (+5%)	1mo	$210,000	$135	56
163 West St	0.62mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,404 (-5%)	3mo	$350,000	$249	55
14 Westfield St	0.35mi	4/2.0	1,610 (+8%)	18mo	$330,000	$205	55
24 Batter Ter	0.55mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,618 (+9%)	13mo	$320,000	$198	42
20 Waverly St	0.58mi	4/2.0	1,626 (+10%)	22mo	$361,000	$222	38
53 Thorn St	0.69mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,602 (+8%)	14mo	$350,000	$218	38
125 Taft Ave	0.67mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,673 (+13%)	22mo	$385,000	$230	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-61,456
• Equity at exit: $65,456

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-45,453
• Equity at exit: $37,957

Cash invested: $122,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06511

• Home prices YoY: -20.8%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 140
• Price-to-rent: 18.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,917 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,302
• Tax from tax record: −$432 /mo · $5,190/yr
• Insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$823
• Net cashflow: $177

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,693

Max offer price $439,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $425	-5% $301	+0% $177	+5% $53	+10% $-72
Rent	-10% $-133	-5% $22	+0% $177	+5% $332	+10% $486
Rate	-1.0pp $398	-0.5pp $289	base $177	+0.5pp $63	+1.0pp $-53

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$3,916
Total (2 units)			$3,917

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $109,750
• Closing costs: $13,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
48 Miller St Unit 1 New Haven, CT	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,000	$1.33	45d	1	0.22mi
185 Winthrop Ave Unit 1 New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	1357	$2,100	$1.55	5d	1	0.33mi
32 Auburn St Unit 2 New Haven, CT	4.0	1.0	1350	$2,200	$1.63	45d	1	0.33mi
32 Auburn St Unit 2 New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	1300	$2,300	$1.77	25d	1	0.33mi
408 Legion Ave Unit 2 New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	1610	$2,000	$1.24	45d	1	0.37mi
169 Gilbert Ave Unit 1 New Haven, CT	3.0	1.5	1008	$2,000	$1.98	45d	1	0.45mi
108 Greenwood St New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	1000	$2,100	$2.10	13d	1	0.45mi
34 Bristol St Unit 3 West Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	1370	$2,400	$1.75	45d	1	0.50mi
745 George St Unit 3rd Floor New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	16d	1	0.50mi
38 Bristol St Unit 3 West Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,400	$2.00	45d	1	0.51mi
87 Orchard St Unit 2 New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	1044	$1,750	$1.68	21d	1	0.51mi
54 Orchard St Unit 52B New Haven, CT	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,600	$2.17	45d	1	0.52mi
46 Orchard St Unit 46A New Haven, CT	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,600	$2.17	45d	1	0.52mi
46 Orchard St Unit 46B New Haven, CT	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,600	$2.17	25d	1	0.52mi
10 Batter Ter Unit 2 New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	940	$1,800	$1.91	23d	1	0.53mi
1616 Chapel St New Haven, CT	4.0	1.5	1443	$2,550	$1.77	45d	1	0.59mi
1494 Chapel St Unit 1R New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	1800	$2,000	$1.11	5d	1	0.61mi
1476 Chapel St Unit 301 New Haven, CT	4.0	1.5	1200	$1,800	$1.50	16d	1	0.61mi
1561 Chapel St New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,950	$1.77	5d	1	0.62mi
1561 Chapel St New Haven, CT	4.0	1.0	1200	$2,150	$1.79	16d	1	0.62mi
5 Gilbert Ave Unit 1 New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	1254	$2,000	$1.59	25d	1	0.62mi
5 Gilbert Ave Unit 1 New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	1254	$2,000	$1.59	21d	1	0.62mi
5 Gilbert Ave Unit 3 New Haven, CT	5.0	2.0	1240	$1,700	$1.37	25d	1	0.62mi
1476 Chapel St Unit 102 New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	45d	1	0.62mi
92 Arch St Unit 2 New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	1019	$2,000	$1.96	45d	1	0.70mi
467 Columbus Ave Unit 1W New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	932	$1,900	$2.04	45d	1	0.70mi
29 White St Unit 3 New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	1240	$1,750	$1.41	25d	1	0.76mi
270 Edgewood Ave Unit 3 New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	975	$2,000	$2.05	45d	1	0.77mi
10 Kensington St New Haven, CT	3.0	2.0	1150	$2,195	$1.91	45d	1	0.77mi
365 Orchard St New Haven, CT	2.0–4.0	1.0	1175	$2,395	$2.04	16d	4	0.78mi
546 Congress Ave Unit 2nd floor New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	960	$1,700	$1.77	13d	1	0.78mi
32 Cullen Ave West Haven, CT	3.0	2.0	1080	$3,500	$3.24	4d	1	0.79mi
365 Winthrop Ave Unit 1 New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	1600	$2,295	$1.43	5d	1	0.81mi
154 Norton St Unit 1 New Haven, CT	4.0	1.0	1306	$1,900	$1.45	5d	1	0.81mi
106 Dwight St Unit 36 New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	900	$960	$1.07	25d	1	0.81mi
120 Dwight St New Haven, CT	3.0	2.0	1750	$3,175	$1.81	23d	2	0.82mi
66 Kensington St Unit 2 New Haven, CT	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,100	$1.17	25d	1	0.86mi
212 Maple St New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,500	$2.27	23d	1	0.86mi
212 Maple St Unit 1st Floor New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	1150	$2,800	$2.43	45d	1	0.86mi
33 Howe St Unit 33-3R New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	1000	$2,295	$2.29	16d	1	0.86mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $439,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   pricedays on marketlisting id $439,000 Active 1 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $450,000 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $450,000 Active 30 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $450,000 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $450,000 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $450,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $450,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $450,000 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $450,000 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $450,000 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $450,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $450,000 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $450,000 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-06-03
    days on market $450,000 Active 15 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $450,000 Active 14 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $450,000 Active 13 DOM
18. 2026-05-18
    listed $450,000 Active
19. 2025-06-12
    soldstatus $170,000 Closed 143-char remark

    Show marketing remark (143 chars)

    2 family home available at a great price. In need of rehab. Please do not enter back deck or bathrooms, deemed unsafe. the floor is rotted out.

20. 2025-04-21
    status Under Contract 143-char remark

    Show marketing remark (143 chars)

    2 family home available at a great price. In need of rehab. Please do not enter back deck or bathrooms, deemed unsafe. the floor is rotted out.

21. 2025-03-22
    price $189,900 143-char remark

    Show marketing remark (143 chars)

    2 family home available at a great price. In need of rehab. Please do not enter back deck or bathrooms, deemed unsafe. the floor is rotted out.

22. 2025-03-21
    status Active 143-char remark

    Show marketing remark (143 chars)

    2 family home available at a great price. In need of rehab. Please do not enter back deck or bathrooms, deemed unsafe. the floor is rotted out.

23. 2025-03-11
    status Under Contract 143-char remark

    Show marketing remark (143 chars)

    2 family home available at a great price. In need of rehab. Please do not enter back deck or bathrooms, deemed unsafe. the floor is rotted out.

24. 2025-02-05
    price $205,000 143-char remark

    Show marketing remark (143 chars)

    2 family home available at a great price. In need of rehab. Please do not enter back deck or bathrooms, deemed unsafe. the floor is rotted out.

25. 2025-01-14
    historical

    Show marketing remark (143 chars)

    2 family home available at a great price. In need of rehab. Please do not enter back deck or bathrooms, deemed unsafe. the floor is rotted out.

26. 2025-01-14
    listed $219,900 Active 143-char remark

    Show marketing remark (143 chars)

    2 family home available at a great price. In need of rehab. Please do not enter back deck or bathrooms, deemed unsafe. the floor is rotted out.

27. 2025-01-14
    listed $219,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (143 chars)

    2 family home available at a great price. In need of rehab. Please do not enter back deck or bathrooms, deemed unsafe. the floor is rotted out.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,190 · $432/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,292 · $608/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,102/yr (+$175/mo · 40.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 27% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 59% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,004
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,591
• − Property taxes: −$5,190
• − Insurance: −$2,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,760
• − Management: −$3,760
• − Depreciation: −$12,771
• Taxable loss: −$5,263
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,263
• After-tax cash flow: $3,385/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Haven School District
• NCES district ID: 0902790
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $38,058
• Composite: 15.48/100
• National rank: #9308
• State rank: #147 of 153 in CT

Livability — New Haven

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #2190

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime F Employment D Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Haven, CT
• County: New Haven County · 688,236 people
• City population: 132,813
• Metro: New Haven-Milford, CT
• Population (ZIP): 54,730
• Household income: $59,969
• Rent vs Own: 80.3% rent · 19.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 4999.0

Population outlook (South Central Connecticut County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 608,362

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 34% White 32% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 8% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 10% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 15% Chinese 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · South Central Connecticut

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.1) · D 59.0% · R 38.9% · Other 2.1%
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.05%
• Current HPI: 328.1353
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• Metro: New Haven-Milford, CT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

+99.6% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-19 Listed $439,000 Smart MLS
• 2026-06-19 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2026-05-18 Listed $450,000 Smart MLS
• 2025-06-12 Sold (MLS) $170,000 Smart MLS
• 2025-04-21 Pending — Smart MLS
• 2025-03-22 Price Changed $189,900 Smart MLS
• 2025-03-21 Relisted — Smart MLS
• 2025-03-11 Pending — Smart MLS
• 2025-02-05 Price Changed $205,000 Smart MLS
• 2025-01-14 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2025-01-14 Listed $219,900 Smart MLS
• 2025-01-14 Listed $219,900 Smart MLS

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2023): $5,190 · -6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.