3190W Plan · Sienna, TX 77459

$572,900

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,190 sqft · SingleFamily · 75 Days on market

Good condition $180/sqft · at area comps Est $591k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Home office with French doors set at two-story entry. Open formal dining room just off the kitchen area. Two-story family room with 19-foot ceilings and a wall of windows. Kitchen features an island with built-in seating space, a walk-in pantry and opens to the morning area. Private primary suite with a wall of windows. Primary bath includes double doors, garden tub, separate glass-enclosed shower, dual vanities, a linen closet and a large walk-in closet. Upstairs game room and adjacent media room. Secondary bedrooms, a Hollywood bath and storage closet complete the second floor. Covered backyard patio. Three-car garage. Representative Images. Features and specifications may vary by community.

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Kitchen island
• Home office

Tags

• HOME OFFICE
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• TWO-STORY FAMILY ROOM
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $573k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $244 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $532k (7.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $532k (7.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.3% in Sienna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1228 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,320/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($129k/yr) (locally 1004% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($539k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $532,000 (7.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.82%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $590,941
• List price: $572,900
• Delta: -3.05%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10039 Cypress Path	0.38mi	4/3.5	3,348 (+5%)	0mo	$585,000	$175	74
10143 Deerpark Dr	0.18mi	4/3.5	2,874 (-10%)	2mo	$475,000	$165	73
1518 Sunrise View Ln	0.46mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,234 (+1%)	1mo	$590,000	$182	71
10115 Cypress Path	0.41mi	4/3.5	3,457 (+8%)	2mo	$520,900	$151	65
9010 Bayou Spring Ct	0.70mi	4/3.0	3,180 (-0%)	0mo	$605,000	$190	64
2018 Edgemont Pl	0.60mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,227 (+1%)	2mo	$499,500	$155	63
1939 Creekwood Cv	0.56mi	4/4.0	3,344 (+5%)	2mo	$594,990	$178	62
10022 Orchard Fld	0.45mi	4/3.5	3,563 (+12%)	1mo	$597,900	$168	58
1807 Watermont Dr	0.74mi	4/3.0	3,078 (-4%)	1mo	$535,000	$174	57
10018 Foggy Riv	0.54mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,944 (-8%)	1mo	$449,999	$153	56
1539 Watermont Dr	0.73mi	4/3.5	3,002 (-6%)	1mo	$599,000	$200	56
1614 Summer Pine Ct	0.74mi	5/4.5 (+1)	3,425 (+7%)	1mo	$630,000	$184	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-60,180
• Equity at exit: $120,154

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-62,729
• Equity at exit: $111,291

Cash invested: $160,412 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1228
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,320 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,004
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$716 /mo · $8,594/yr
• Insurance: −$239
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,117
• Net cashflow: $244

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,012

Max offer price $572,900

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $640	-5% $442	+0% $244	+5% $46	+10% $-152
Rent	-10% $-177	-5% $33	+0% $244	+5% $454	+10% $664
Rate	-1.0pp $532	-0.5pp $389	base $244	+0.5pp $95	+1.0pp $-56

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $143,225
• Closing costs: $17,187
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9006 Meadow Bridge Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	3958	$6,580	$1.66	4d	1	0.71mi
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2143	$6,000	$2.80	23d	1	0.97mi
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$6,000	$2.80	0d	1	1.02mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $572,900 Active 75 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $572,900 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $572,900 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $554,900 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $554,900 Active 69 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $554,900 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $554,900 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $554,900 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $554,900 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $554,900 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $554,900 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $554,900 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $554,900 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-04-07
    listed $554,900 Active 702-char remark

    Show marketing remark (702 chars)

    Home office with French doors set at two-story entry. Open formal dining room just off the kitchen area. Two-story family room with 19-foot ceilings and a wall of windows. Kitchen features an island with built-in seating space, a walk-in pantry and opens to the morning area. Private primary suite with a wall of windows. Primary bath includes double doors, garden tub, separate glass-enclosed shower, dual vanities, a linen closet and a large walk-in closet. Upstairs game room and adjacent media room. Secondary bedrooms, a Hollywood bath and storage closet complete the second floor. Covered backyard patio. Three-car garage. Representative Images. Features and specifications may vary by community.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $63,840
• − Mortgage interest: −$32,091
• − Property taxes: −$8,594
• − Insurance: −$2,864
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,107
• − Management: −$5,107
• − Depreciation: −$16,666
• Taxable loss: −$6,590
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,582
• After-tax cash flow: $4,505/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. It has a good roof and flooring. The home is move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates needed for the exterior and interior paint.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Interior paint — Fresh paint can make a home more appealing
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Interior paint — Fresh paint can make a home more appealing ↑
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sienna, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Listed $554,900 Zillow