419 Rich St · Syracuse, NY 13207

$45,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 145 Days on market

Built 1900 4,059 sqft lot Est $37k · 22% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Looking for fixer uppers, flippers and contractors that can restore this home to its glorious shape. This home has been in the same family for the last 52 years and it will need some tender loving care. Motivated seller and let's make a deal!

Key facts

• 4,059 sq ft lot
• Built 1900
• Listed 145 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $683 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $40k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 36.8% vs local median 8.2% in Syracuse — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#187 in NY, #2,869 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, employment D-.
• Syracuse City School District (urban): math 18% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #590 of 590 in NY (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 145 days — a 12% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $39,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 145 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 36.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 108.91%
• DSCR: 5.85
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $36,960
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
228 Putnam St	0.64mi	3/1.5 (+1)	868 (+3%)	14mo	$55,000	$63	46
162 Clyde Ave	0.69mi	1/1.0 (-1)	784 (-7%)	16mo	$32,000	$41	38
327 Shonnard St #29	0.71mi	2/1.0	912 (+9%)	23mo	$40,000	$44	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 64.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.90×
• Total profit: $36,530
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: 69.0%
• Equity multiple: 8.07×
• Total profit: $89,101
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13207

• Home prices YoY: -23.0%
• Active inventory: 63
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,842 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $682/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$460 /mo · $5,525/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $683

Break-even live

Break-even rent $977

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
122 Putnam St Syracuse, NY	3.0	1.0	1064	$2,050	$1.93	21d	1	0.48mi
409 Stolp Ave Syracuse, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0	849	$1,262	$1.49	13d	5	0.51mi
508-10 W Brighton Ave Syracuse, NY	2.0	1.0	735	$1,350	$1.84	13d	13	0.84mi
472 S Salina St Syracuse, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	1022	$2,095	$2.05	13d	3	1.07mi
111 E Onondaga St Syracuse, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1150	$3,000	$2.61	21d	5	1.08mi
108 W Jefferson St #706 Syracuse, NY	1.0	1.0	959	$1,850	$1.93	43d	1	1.20mi
1741 W Onondaga St Syracuse, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$1,250	$1.56	13d	3	1.21mi
2859 S Salina St Unit 2 Syracuse, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	43d	1	1.22mi
120 Walton St Syracuse, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	825	$3,200	$3.88	43d	2	1.23mi
110 Walton St Unit 303 Syracuse, NY	1.0	1.0	725	$1,700	$2.34	43d	1	1.23mi
110 Walton St Unit 301 Syracuse, NY	2.0	2.0	1051	$2,000	$1.90	21d	1	1.23mi
110 Walton St Unit 201 Syracuse, NY	2.0	2.0	1051	$2,200	$2.09	43d	1	1.23mi
110 Walton St Unit 203 Syracuse, NY	1.0	1.0	701	$1,600	$2.28	21d	1	1.23mi
205 E Jefferson St Unit 2B Syracuse, NY	2.0	2.5	1100	$2,200	$2.00	21d	1	1.24mi
201 E Jefferson St Syracuse, NY	2.0	1.0	662	$1,626	$2.45	13d	9	1.24mi
317 S Clinton St Unit 3C/B3 Syracuse, NY	1.0	1.0	700	$1,675	$2.39	13d	1	1.25mi
321 S Salina St Unit 502 Syracuse, NY	1.0	1.0	1050	$2,500	$2.38	43d	1	1.26mi
321 S Salina St Unit 402 Syracuse, NY	1.0	1.0	1050	$2,200	$2.10	13d	1	1.26mi
321 S Salina St Unit 303 Syracuse, NY	1.0	1.0	978	$1,800	$1.84	43d	1	1.26mi
321 S Salina St Unit 403 Syracuse, NY	1.0	1.0	978	$1,750	$1.79	21d	1	1.27mi
129 W Fayette St Unit 217 Syracuse, NY	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,550	$1.41	13d	1	1.27mi
538 Erie Blvd W Syracuse, NY	2.0	2.0	1110	$2,100	$1.89	21d	1	1.30mi
324 W Water St Syracuse, NY	2.0	1.0	1007	$1,975	$1.96	13d	6	1.36mi
60 Presidential Plz Syracuse, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	970	$1,315	$1.36	43d	1	1.38mi
101 S Salina St Syracuse, NY	2.0	1.0	651	$2,871	$4.41	13d	14	1.39mi
208 W Water St Syracuse, NY	2.0	2.0	962	$1,800	$1.87	43d	1	1.40mi
105 Smith Ln Syracuse, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	518	$1,450	$2.80	13d	23	1.45mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-06
   status Active
3. 2026-02-12
   historical Active Under Contract
4. 2025-11-12
   listed $45,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $682 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $721 · $60/mo
• Expected delta: +$39/yr (+$3/mo · 5.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,103
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$682
• − Insurance: −$5,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,768
• − Management: −$1,768
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $8,305
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,993
• After-tax cash flow: $6,205/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Syracuse City School District
• NCES district ID: 3628590
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $32,097
• Composite: 17.83/100
• National rank: #9007
• State rank: #590 of 590 in NY

Livability — Syracuse

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #187
• US rank: #2869

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Syracuse, NY
• City population: 152,627
• Population (ZIP): 12,383

Population outlook (Onondaga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 467,894 people
• By 2030: 463,381 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 447,697 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 426,399 · -8.9%
• By 2075: 373,661 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 307,967 · -34.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 11% Native American 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 13% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Onondaga

• 2024 margin: D (+17.3) · D 58.6% · R 41.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: 20.3pp · 2024: 17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.3 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+12.8 2012: D+21.1 2008: D+20.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.17%
• Current HPI: 318.9257
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-03-06 Relisted — CNYIS
• 2026-02-12 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2025-11-12 Listed $45,000 CNYIS

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $682 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.