408 Crisfield Dr · Bel Air South, MD 21009

$359,333

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1985 9,714 sqft lot $125/sqft · 16% below area Est $430k · 16% under $10/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.9/15.0
• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

LOTS OF UPDATES & ADDITIONS IN THIS BEAUTIFUL 4-5 BEDROOMS * 3 1/2 BATHS * MASTER BATH WITH SOAKING TUB * SEPARATE SHOWER * FINISHED BASEMENT * FRONT PORCH * CLOSED SCREENED BACK PORCH * HANDICAPPED RAMP * NATURAL GAS HEAT * REPLACEMENT WINDOW * BEAUTIFUL NEW BATH * NEW WW CARPET ON ALL LEVELS * COZY FIREPLACE MAIN LEVEL * STONE GAS HEATER IN BASEMENT * KIT WINDOW * MOVE IN READY * CALL TODAY FOR YOUR NICE TOUR *

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Updated windows
• Gas fireplace

Tags

• COVERED SCREENED IN DECK
• GAS FIREPLACE
• UPDATED WINDOWS
• COVERED FRONT PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Fee simple ownership
• HOA & community: HOA fee $120 annually

Exterior

• Parking: Concrete driveway / driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas hot water
• Home design: Detached structure
• Construction: Frame construction with vinyl siding; Architectural shingle roof; Concrete perimeter foundation; Year built sourced from assessor
• Exterior features: Walkout basement; Above-grade and below-grade structures

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (appliances not specified)
• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms on the upper level
• Flooring: Carpet flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump(s); Natural gas heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: 9'+ ceilings; Has fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Basement with connecting stairway and walkout stairs (partially finished)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $359k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3 ($37/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $300k (16.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $300k (16.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.2% in Bel Air South — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#33 in MD, #1,172 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, cost of living D.
• Harford County Public Schools (suburban): math 22% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #9 of 24 in MD (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.1%/yr); 159 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 803 units permitted in Harford County in 2024 (26 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($354k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $300,384 (16.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.04%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $430,075
• List price: $359,333
• Delta: -16.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
408 Crisfield Dr	0.00mi	4/3.5	2,864 (0%)	0mo	$359,333	$125	100
463 Crisfield Dr	0.29mi	4/2.5	2,912 (+2%)	2mo	$480,000	$165	78
3303 Trellis Ln	0.47mi	4/3.5	2,874 (+0%)	3mo	$545,000	$190	75
429 Crisfield Dr	0.19mi	4/3.5	2,660 (-7%)	13mo	$424,900	$160	68
453 Crisfield Dr	0.30mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,635 (-8%)	8mo	$425,000	$161	59
3716 Goodwill Ct	0.22mi	4/3.5	2,500 (-13%)	12mo	$430,000	$172	58
3313 Trellis Ln	0.45mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,692 (-6%)	14mo	$535,000	$199	50
3202 Uppercoe Ct	0.64mi	4/3.0	3,099 (+8%)	6mo	$532,500	$172	49
3202 Lanham Dr	0.59mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,593 (-10%)	10mo	$485,000	$187	44
3307 Trellis Ln	0.46mi	4/3.0	3,288 (+15%)	14mo	$576,000	$175	40
3012 Cascade Dr	0.73mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,718 (-5%)	18mo	$460,000	$169	35
3033 Cascade Dr	0.70mi	3/3.5 (-1)	3,139 (+10%)	20mo	$492,000	$157	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-45,088
• Equity at exit: $53,578

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $18,830
• Equity at exit: $31,069

Cash invested: $100,613 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21009

• Rents YoY: 7.1%
• Active inventory: 159
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,004 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,884
• Tax from tax record: −$326 /mo · $3,910/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$631
• Net cashflow: $3

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,000

Max offer price $359,333

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $206	-5% $105	+0% $3	+5% $-99	+10% $-200
Rent	-10% $-234	-5% $-116	+0% $3	+5% $122	+10% $240
Rate	-1.0pp $184	-0.5pp $94	base $3	+0.5pp $-90	+1.0pp $-185

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,833
• Closing costs: $10,780
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
569 Kirkcaldy Way Abingdon, MD	3.0	3.5	2040	$2,600	$1.27	45d	1	1.15mi
735 Perthshire Pl #61 Abingdon, MD	3.0	3.5	2670	$3,100	$1.16	5d	1	1.26mi
2911 Lomond Pl Abingdon, MD	3.0	3.5	2800	$3,100	$1.11	25d	1	1.29mi
617 Snapdragon Ct Abingdon, MD	3.0	2.5	2519	$2,850	$1.13	19d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-17
   status Pending 338-char remark
2. 2026-05-01
   listed $359,333 Active 338-char remark
3. 2017-05-19
   soldstatus $274,900
4. 2017-04-14
   soldstatus $274,900 Sold 426-char remark

   Show marketing remark (426 chars)

   LOTS OF UPDATES & ADDITIONS IN THIS BEAUTIFUL 4-5 BEDROOMS * 3 1/2 BATHS * MASTER BATH WITH SOAKING TUB * SEPARATE SHOWER * FINISHED BASEMENT * FRONT PORCH * CLOSED SCREENED BACK PORCH * HANDICAPPED RAMP * NATURAL GAS HEAT * REPLACEMENT WINDOW * BEAUTIFUL NEW BATH * NEW WW CARPET ON ALL LEVELS * COZY FIREPLACE MAIN LEVEL * STONE GAS HEATER IN BASEMENT * KIT WINDOW * MOVE IN READY * CALL TODAY FOR YOUR NICE TOUR *

5. 2017-04-14
   soldstatus $274,900

   Show marketing remark (426 chars)

   LOTS OF UPDATES & ADDITIONS IN THIS BEAUTIFUL 4-5 BEDROOMS * 3 1/2 BATHS * MASTER BATH WITH SOAKING TUB * SEPARATE SHOWER * FINISHED BASEMENT * FRONT PORCH * CLOSED SCREENED BACK PORCH * HANDICAPPED RAMP * NATURAL GAS HEAT * REPLACEMENT WINDOW * BEAUTIFUL NEW BATH * NEW WW CARPET ON ALL LEVELS * COZY FIREPLACE MAIN LEVEL * STONE GAS HEATER IN BASEMENT * KIT WINDOW * MOVE IN READY * CALL TODAY FOR YOUR NICE TOUR *

6. 2017-03-05
   status Contingent (No Kick Out) 426-char remark

   Show marketing remark (426 chars)

   LOTS OF UPDATES & ADDITIONS IN THIS BEAUTIFUL 4-5 BEDROOMS * 3 1/2 BATHS * MASTER BATH WITH SOAKING TUB * SEPARATE SHOWER * FINISHED BASEMENT * FRONT PORCH * CLOSED SCREENED BACK PORCH * HANDICAPPED RAMP * NATURAL GAS HEAT * REPLACEMENT WINDOW * BEAUTIFUL NEW BATH * NEW WW CARPET ON ALL LEVELS * COZY FIREPLACE MAIN LEVEL * STONE GAS HEATER IN BASEMENT * KIT WINDOW * MOVE IN READY * CALL TODAY FOR YOUR NICE TOUR *

7. 2017-02-11
   listed $274,900 Active 426-char remark

   Show marketing remark (426 chars)

   LOTS OF UPDATES & ADDITIONS IN THIS BEAUTIFUL 4-5 BEDROOMS * 3 1/2 BATHS * MASTER BATH WITH SOAKING TUB * SEPARATE SHOWER * FINISHED BASEMENT * FRONT PORCH * CLOSED SCREENED BACK PORCH * HANDICAPPED RAMP * NATURAL GAS HEAT * REPLACEMENT WINDOW * BEAUTIFUL NEW BATH * NEW WW CARPET ON ALL LEVELS * COZY FIREPLACE MAIN LEVEL * STONE GAS HEATER IN BASEMENT * KIT WINDOW * MOVE IN READY * CALL TODAY FOR YOUR NICE TOUR *

8. 1994-05-05
   soldstatus $139,900
9. 1991-10-23
   soldstatus $95,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,910 · $326/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,913 · $326/mo
• Expected delta: +$3/yr ($0/mo · 0.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,046
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,128
• − Property taxes: −$3,910
• − Insurance: −$1,797
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,884
• − Management: −$2,884
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$10,453
• Taxable loss: −$6,130
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,471
• After-tax cash flow: $1,508/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harford County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400390
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $79,569
• Composite: 29.38/100
• National rank: #6527
• State rank: #9 of 24 in MD

Livability — Bel Air South

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #33
• US rank: #1172

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A- Cost of living D Crime D Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bel Air South, MD
• County: Harford County · 198,512 people
• City population: 63,895
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 33,679
• Household income: $121,660
• Rent vs Own: 17.6% rent · 82.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Harford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 262,292 people
• By 2030: 266,437 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 269,954 · +2.9%
• By 2050: 265,659 · +1.3%
• By 2075: 252,886 · -3.6%
• By 2100: 224,014 · -14.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 18% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 4% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harford

• 2024 margin: R (+13.8) · D 41.9% · R 55.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.0pp toward D · 2008: -18.8pp · 2024: -13.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.8 2020: R+12.0 2016: R+24.5 2012: R+19.5 2008: R+18.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -176.25%
• Current HPI: 251.4376
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.12%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+278.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Sold (MLS) $359,333 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-17 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $359,333 BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-05-19 Sold (Public Records) $274,900 Public Records
• 2017-04-14 Sold (MLS) $274,900 MRIS
• 2017-04-14 Sold (MLS) $274,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-03-05 Pending — MRIS
• 2017-02-11 Listed $274,900 MRIS
• 1994-05-05 Sold (Public Records) $139,900 Public Records
• 1991-10-23 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,910 · +8.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.