74711 Dillon Rd · Sky Valley, CA 92241

$70,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,255 sqft · Manufactured public records · 37 Days on market

Built 2002 Est $120k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Brand newly renovated inside and out new appliances brand new floors throughout new ceilings custom decor new fans and lighting it has its own full a/c Landry room it sit on 2 lots back to back 862 for to lots a mounth great deal dont miss this opportunity to own this beautiful home at a great family park sky valley resort price is negotiable it move in ready came on down and enjoy all the pools and spas

Key facts

• New floors
• New ceilings
• Landry room

Tags

• NEW APPLIANCES
• NEW FLOORS
• NEW CEILINGS
• CUSTOM DECOR
• FULL A/C
• LANDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 24.0% vs local median 9.6% in Sky Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,041 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Palm Springs Unified (suburban): math 21% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #328 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 216 active listings in the ZIP; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $67,900 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 63.31%
• DSCR: 3.82
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $120,480
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
74711 Dillon Rd #507	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-1%)	3mo	$147,500	$118	96
74711 Dillon Rd #614	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-1%)	6mo	$70,000	$56	94
74711 Dillon #373	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-1%)	14mo	$120,000	$96	88
74711 Dillon Rd #534	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-8%)	4mo	$82,000	$71	83
74711 Dillon Rd #599	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-8%)	1mo	$115,000	$100	79
74711 Dillon Rd #545	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+7%)	9mo	$105,000	$78	75
74711 Dillon Rd #385	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+7%)	17mo	$85,000	$63	74
74711 Dillon Rd #513	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-1%)	18mo	$81,920	$66	73
74711 Dillon Rd #511	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-8%)	18mo	$115,000	$100	71
74711 Dillon Rd #427	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-8%)	14mo	$150,000	$130	68
74711 Dillon Rd #421	0.33mi	2/2.0	1,150 (-8%)	4mo	$135,000	$117	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 62.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.78×
• Total profit: $54,542
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 66.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.75×
• Total profit: $132,397
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92241

• Home prices YoY: -22.8%
• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,910 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $940/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$401
• Net cashflow: $1,034

Break-even live

Break-even rent $601

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 41%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $70,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $70,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $70,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $70,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $70,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $70,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $70,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $70,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $70,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    listed $70,000 Active 413-char remark
16. 2024-12-17
    historical
17. 2024-10-04
    listed $99,900 Active
18. 2024-06-28
    historical
19. 2024-06-20
    listed $75,000 Active
20. 2024-05-06
    historical
21. 2024-01-12
    price $85,000
22. 2023-12-07
    price $94,500
23. 2023-11-15
    price $98,500
24. 2023-11-14
    listed $117,500 Active
25. 2022-09-21
    listed Active
26. 2016-05-27
    historical
27. 2016-03-24
    historical
28. 2016-03-23
    price $25,000
29. 2016-01-08
    price $19,500
30. 2015-11-18
    price $35,000
31. 2015-11-09
    listed $26,000 Active
32. 2015-11-04
    historical
33. 2015-10-28
    listed $45,000 Active
34. 2015-05-06
    listed $26,000 Active
35. 2009-02-18
    historical
36. 2009-01-28
    listed $22,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $940 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $940 · $78/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,916
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$940
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,833
• − Management: −$1,833
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $12,003
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,881
• After-tax cash flow: $9,529/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palm Springs Unified
• NCES district ID: 0629550
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $43,638
• Composite: 26.76/100
• National rank: #7131
• State rank: #328 of 517 in CA

Livability — Sky Valley

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1041
• US rank: #25108

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B- Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sky Valley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 8,624

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 46% Two or more races 16% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 38% Chinese 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.23%
• Current HPI: 400.5663
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+218.2% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $70,000 FSBO.com
• 2024-12-17 Listing Removed — GPSMLS
• 2024-10-04 Listed $99,900 GPSMLS
• 2024-06-28 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-06-20 Listed $75,000 CRMLS
• 2024-05-06 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-01-12 Price Changed $85,000 CRMLS
• 2023-12-07 Price Changed $94,500 CRMLS
• 2023-11-15 Price Changed $98,500 CRMLS
• 2023-11-14 Listed $117,500 CRMLS
• 2022-09-21 Listed — TheMLS
• 2016-05-27 Listing Removed — GPSMLS
• 2016-03-24 Listing Removed — GPSMLS
• 2016-03-23 Price Changed $25,000 GPSMLS
• 2016-01-08 Price Changed $19,500 GPSMLS
• 2015-11-18 Price Changed $35,000 GPSMLS
• 2015-11-09 Listed $26,000 GPSMLS
• 2015-11-04 Listing Removed — GPSMLS
• 2015-10-28 Listed $45,000 GPSMLS
• 2015-05-06 Listed $26,000 GPSMLS
• 2009-02-18 Listing Removed — GPSMLS
• 2009-01-28 Listed $22,000 GPSMLS

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $940 · -2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.