610 Amber Falls Dr · Montgomery, TX 77356

$261,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,777 sqft · Land · 106 Days on market

Built 2025 6,338 sqft lot $83/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Montgomery Bend, just minutes from Lake Conroe and zoned to top-rated Montgomery ISD! This spacious one-story Afton plan by Centex offers 4 bedrooms, a large open family room, and a spa-inspired primary suite with a walk-in shower and double sinks. The kitchen features grey shaker cabinets with hardware on all cabinets and drawers, soft-close drawers, gas cooking, and a walk-in pantry. Thoughtful upgrades include crown molding, ceiling fans, blinds throughout, and a laundry room with a convenient mud wall. The secondary bath offers an extended vanity for added comfort. Enjoy outdoor living on the covered patio overlooking a fully fenced yard with full sod, a complete irrigation s

Key facts

• Soft close drawers
• Extended vanity
• Gas cooking

Tags

• SPA INSPIRED SHOWER
• EXTENDED VANITY
• LIBERTY WHITE SHAKER CABINETS
• SOFT CLOSE DRAWERS
• GAS COOKING
• WALK IN PANTRY

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $262k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $122 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (14.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $224k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 2.0% in Montgomery — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#372 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Montgomery El (math 50% / reading 50%, grade D+, #849 of 4,322 statewide, top 20%, 595 students, 45% FRL); Montgomery J H (math 68% / reading 54%, grade B+, #145 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 1,045 students, 30% FRL); Montgomery H S (math 53% / reading 62%, grade C, #327 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,556 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.3%/yr); 1056 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $223,566 (14.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.99%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-41,315
• Equity at exit: $39,050

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-51,602
• Equity at exit: $22,644

Cash invested: $73,332 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77356

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -3.3%
• Active inventory: 1056
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,236 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,373
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $948/yr
• Insurance: −$109
• HOA: −$83
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $122

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,082

Max offer price $261,900

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,475
• Closing costs: $7,857
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
622 Amber Falls Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1244	$1,975	$1.59	44d	1	0.03mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $83 · $996/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-04-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-11
   price $261,900
3. 2026-03-25
   price $264,410
4. 2026-02-20
   price $269,400
5. 2026-01-10
   price $279,400
6. 2026-01-10
   price $262,990
7. 2026-01-09
   listed $279,400 Active
8. 2026-01-09
   historical
9. 2025-11-11
   price $279,400
10. 2025-10-29
    price $284,400
11. 2025-09-16
    price $269,400
12. 2025-09-16
    listed $295,300 Active
13. 2025-09-16
    historical
14. 2025-08-20
    price $269,400
15. 2025-07-31
    price $284,400
16. 2025-07-17
    price $299,400
17. 2025-07-09
    price $277,300
18. 2025-06-10
    status Active
19. 2025-06-10
    status Pending
20. 2025-06-09
    listed $295,300 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $948 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,793 · $399/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,844/yr (+$320/mo · 405.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,828
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,670
• − Property taxes: −$948
• − Insurance: −$1,310
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,146
• − Management: −$2,146
• − HOA: −$996
• − Depreciation: −$7,619
• Taxable loss: −$3,008
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$722
• After-tax cash flow: $2,181/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Montgomery

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #372
• US rank: #7894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,583
• Household income: $106,804
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 414.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.28%
• Current HPI: 233.0032
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.3% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $261,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $264,410 HARMLS
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $269,400 HARMLS
• 2026-01-10 Price Changed $279,400 HARMLS
• 2026-01-10 Price Changed $262,990 HARMLS
• 2026-01-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-09 Listed $279,400 HARMLS
• 2025-11-11 Price Changed $279,400 HARMLS
• 2025-10-29 Price Changed $284,400 HARMLS
• 2025-09-16 Price Changed $269,400 HARMLS
• 2025-09-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-16 Listed $295,300 HARMLS
• 2025-08-20 Price Changed $269,400 HARMLS
• 2025-07-31 Price Changed $284,400 HARMLS
• 2025-07-17 Price Changed $299,400 HARMLS
• 2025-07-09 Price Changed $277,300 HARMLS
• 2025-06-10 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-06-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-06-09 Listed $295,300 HARMLS