7816 Denton St · Houston, TX 77028

$250,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,880 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 90 Days on market

Built 2025 4,538 sqft lot $133/sqft · 9% above area Est $230k · 9% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• Appreciation +7.6/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• ARV discount +3.6/15.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

**under construction, nearing completion**Step into this stunning 2026 new construction featuring 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a spacious upstairs game room designed for both entertaining and everyday living. The thoughtfully designed open-concept floor plan showcases modern finishes, abundant natural light, and a sleek kitchen that seamlessly connects to the main living and dining areas — perfect for gatherings. Upstairs, the private primary suite offers a relaxing retreat, complemented by two additional bedrooms and a versatile game room ideal for a media space, office, or playroom. Additional highlights include a 2-car garage and newly poured driveway. Ideally located near Houston’s vibrant dining, shopping, and entertainment, this home blends contemporary style with practical comfort

Key facts

• 4,538 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2025

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-70 ($-844/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $238k (5.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (26.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $183k (26.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hilliard El (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #4,048 of 4,322 statewide, top 95%, 546 students, 99% FRL); Forest Brook Middle (math 12% / reading 14%, grade F, #1,609 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 613 students, 98% FRL); North Forest H S (math 13% / reading 18%, grade F, #1,505 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 974 students, 97% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 71% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 14% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 355 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,834/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($38k/yr) (locally 1177% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (5.2% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.2% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,370 (26.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.21%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $230,168
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: 8.62%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7812 Denton St	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,774 (-6%)	2mo	$295,000	$166	88
8120 Safebuy St	0.50mi	3/2.5	1,868 (-1%)	4mo	$200,000	$107	72
8140 Richland Dr	0.25mi	3/2.5	1,730 (-8%)	16mo	$224,999	$130	62
7939 Carolwood Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,620 (-14%)	2mo	$122,900	$76	57
6824 Bacher St	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,890 (+0%)	15mo	$234,900	$124	57
8410 Homewood Ln	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,035 (+8%)	2mo	$230,000	$113	49
8214 Woodlyn Rd	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,609 (-14%)	4mo	$269,900	$168	43
8013 Talton St	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,684 (-10%)	4mo	$187,000	$111	40
6907 Eastland St	0.61mi	3/2.5	1,627 (-14%)	15mo	$264,200	$162	36
7987 Joy St	0.63mi	3/2.5	1,627 (-14%)	15mo	$259,000	$159	36
7991 Joy St	0.62mi	3/2.5	1,627 (-14%)	16mo	$262,000	$161	36
7817 Woodlyn Rd	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,614 (-14%)	4mo	$200,000	$124	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.25% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $51,177
• Equity at exit: $145,407

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.11×
• Total profit: $147,640
• Equity at exit: $254,097

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77028

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 355
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,834 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$104 /mo · $1,246/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $-70

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,923

Max offer price $237,569

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $71	-5% $0	+0% $-70	+5% $-141	+10% $-212
Rent	-10% $-215	-5% $-143	+0% $-70	+5% $2	+10% $74
Rate	-1.0pp $56	-0.5pp $-7	base $-70	+0.5pp $-135	+1.0pp $-201

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8102 Crestview Dr Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,900	$1.19	46d	1	0.27mi
8102 Crestview Dr Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1800	$1,900	$1.06	24d	1	0.27mi
8213 Linda Vista Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,625	$1.25	26d	1	0.36mi
8203 Woodlyn Rd Unit C Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1650	$1,650	$1.00	10d	1	0.53mi
8238 Homewood Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1696	$1,695	$1.00	1d	1	0.58mi
8238 Homewood Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1696	$1,695	$1.00	26d	1	0.58mi
7914 Laura Koppe Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,850	$1.32	46d	1	0.58mi
7805 Woodlyn Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1946	$1,800	$0.92	1d	1	0.79mi
7945 Henson St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,665	$1.28	1d	1	0.80mi
8006 Lynette St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,475	$1.05	26d	1	0.80mi
8602 Wilkins Oaks Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1307	$1,775	$1.36	46d	1	0.80mi
7966 Henson St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$1,410	$0.88	46d	1	0.80mi
8158 Sunbury St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1300	$1,525	$1.17	26d	1	0.85mi
8638 Doris Oaks Cir Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1777	$1,975	$1.11	46d	1	0.86mi
8135 Chateau St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1610	$1,645	$1.02	13d	1	0.92mi
8625 Homewood Ln Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1500	$1,850	$1.23	46d	1	0.96mi
8627 Homewood Ln Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,850	$1.23	46d	1	0.97mi
8631 Homewood Ln Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,850	$1.23	46d	1	0.98mi
8631 Homewood Ln Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1500	$1,850	$1.23	46d	1	0.98mi
9222 Hillis St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1498	$1,850	$1.23	46d	1	1.01mi
7418 Bywood St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	26d	1	1.14mi
8235 Locksley Rd Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1608	$1,525	$0.95	10d	1	1.30mi
9702 Hillis St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1612	$1,550	$0.96	46d	1	1.39mi
9137 Woodlyn Rd Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1568	$1,550	$0.99	23d	1	1.43mi
9334 Crestview Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1899	$1,745	$0.92	7d	1	1.45mi
7839 Sandy St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,575	$1.21	1d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $250,000 Pending 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 87 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,000 Active 86 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,000 Active 85 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Active 84 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Active 82 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $250,000 Active 78 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $250,000 Active 77 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $250,000 Active 76 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $250,000 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,000 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-03-23
    listed $295,000 Active 814-char remark

    Show marketing remark (814 chars)

    **under construction, nearing completion**Step into this stunning 2026 new construction featuring 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a spacious upstairs game room designed for both entertaining and everyday living. The thoughtfully designed open-concept floor plan showcases modern finishes, abundant natural light, and a sleek kitchen that seamlessly connects to the main living and dining areas — perfect for gatherings. Upstairs, the private primary suite offers a relaxing retreat, complemented by two additional bedrooms and a versatile game room ideal for a media space, office, or playroom. Additional highlights include a 2-car garage and newly poured driveway. Ideally located near Houston’s vibrant dining, shopping, and entertainment, this home blends contemporary style with practical comfort

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,246 · $104/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,575 · $381/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,329/yr (+$277/mo · 267.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,004
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$1,246
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,760
• − Management: −$1,760
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$5,288
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,269
• After-tax cash flow: $425/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 19,109
• Household income: $38,357
• Rent vs Own: 43.1% rent · 56.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1177.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (57%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 57% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 15% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 38%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.25%
• Current HPI: 267.7798
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.55%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Listed $295,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+58.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,246 · +58.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.