2841 Firewheel Rd · Midland, TX 79705

$309,545

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,760 sqft · SingleFamily · 11 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Sienna is a 1,760 square-foot floor plan with features designed to make life at home feel effortless. Brick exterior and covered front porchLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasOpen-concept kitchen, living, and dining areaGranite or quartz countertops throughoutSpacious kitchen peninsula with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesLarge enclosed pantryCorner brick fireplacePrivate primary suite with drop-in tub, walk-in shower, dual vanities, and walk-in closet with utility room accessCovered back patio

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Brick exterior
• Open-concept kitchen

Tags

• BRICK EXTERIOR
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• GRANITE OR QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN PENINSULA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 2841 Firewheel Rd, Midland TX 79705; Status: Active
• Financial info: Listing price available (spec home)

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces
• Utilities: Has heating; Has cooling
• Home design: Spec home, Plan: Sienna; Single-family property
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1760

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $310k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-38 ($-452/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $304k (1.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $266k (14.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $266k (14.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.7% in Midland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#57 in TX, #2,192 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, commute D+, amenities D.
• Midland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #477 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Santa Rita El (math 43% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,462 of 4,322 statewide, top 34%, 596 students, 45% FRL); Goddard J H (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 1,024 students, 58% FRL, charter); Midland H S (math 37% / reading 7%, grade F, #1,366 of 1,632 statewide, top 84%, 2,492 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 452 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,504 units permitted in Midland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($105k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Midland County population projected at +83% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $266,014 (14.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.52%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-53,692
• Equity at exit: $46,154

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-54,451
• Equity at exit: $26,764

Cash invested: $86,673 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79705

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 452
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,660 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,623
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$387 /mo · $4,643/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$559
• Net cashflow: $-38

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,708

Max offer price $304,092

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $176	-5% $69	+0% $-38	+5% $-145	+10% $-252
Rent	-10% $-248	-5% $-143	+0% $-38	+5% $67	+10% $172
Rate	-1.0pp $118	-0.5pp $41	base $-38	+0.5pp $-118	+1.0pp $-199

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,386
• Closing costs: $9,286
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 37 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6109 Buckthorn Dr Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1655	$2,900	$1.75	23d	1	0.06mi
2908 Yellowhouse Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,650	$1.75	23d	1	0.10mi
5917 Praline St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1251	$2,500	$2.00	23d	1	0.17mi
6220 Kingsville St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1312	$2,400	$1.83	15d	1	0.17mi
2808 Longfellow Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1422	$2,400	$1.69	23d	1	0.24mi
2716 River Bend Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1517	$2,600	$1.71	46d	1	0.25mi
5920 Woodpecker Way Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1669	$3,800	$2.28	46d	1	0.27mi
2944 Hidalgo Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1689	$3,800	$2.25	46d	1	0.28mi
5817 Settler Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1421	$2,600	$1.83	46d	1	0.55mi
2703 Ranch Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$2,350	$1.42	23d	1	0.57mi
6011 Purtis Creek Dr Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1722	$2,900	$1.68	46d	1	0.64mi
6735 Draw Ct Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	2050	$2,500	$1.22	46d	1	0.65mi
2702 Southwest St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1844	$2,500	$1.36	46d	1	0.71mi
2060 Acacia Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	2050	$3,100	$1.51	15d	1	0.72mi
6333 Poppy Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,500	$1.85	23d	1	0.77mi
6105 Poppy Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1421	$2,700	$1.90	46d	1	0.77mi
2409 Husk St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1927	$2,800	$1.45	15d	1	0.94mi
2409 Husk St Unit 1 Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1800	$3,000	$1.67	15d	1	0.94mi
2405 Bastrop Ave Midland, TX	4.0	3.0	2561	$3,800	$1.48	15d	1	1.03mi
1909 Rattler Ln Midland, TX	4.0	3.0	2577	$3,300	$1.28	46d	1	1.07mi
6801 Baron Dr Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	2058	$3,150	$1.53	15d	1	1.08mi
6914 Outlaw Ct Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	2123	$3,250	$1.53	15d	1	1.15mi
1801 Chuck Wagon Midland, TX	4.0	2.5	2300	$3,100	$1.35	15d	1	1.21mi
6812 Brush Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,500	$1.72	15d	1	1.22mi
1708 Rattler Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1694	$2,550	$1.51	46d	1	1.22mi
6809 Brush Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1466	$2,500	$1.71	15d	1	1.22mi
1704 Rattler Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1498	$2,500	$1.67	23d	1	1.23mi
1621 Revolution Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,500	$1.66	46d	1	1.29mi
1508 Rattler Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$2,250	$1.43	15d	1	1.36mi
1513 San Miguel Ct Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1853	$2,400	$1.30	15d	1	1.38mi
1501 Wrangler Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1960	$2,750	$1.40	15d	1	1.39mi
2323 Vista Ridge Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	2282	$3,400	$1.49	15d	1	1.42mi
1507 Laguna Meadows Trl Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1703	$2,600	$1.53	46d	1	1.42mi
1412 Mockingbird Ln Midland, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	959	$2,635	$2.75	15d	22	1.43mi
1507 Pavilion Pkwy Midland, TX	4.0	3.0	2421	$3,200	$1.32	46d	1	1.45mi
1500 Laguna Meadows Trl Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1868	$2,500	$1.34	23d	1	1.46mi
1310 Wrangler Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1387	$2,400	$1.73	23d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $309,545 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-14
   days on market $309,545 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $309,545 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $309,545 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $309,545 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $309,545 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   remarks 514-char remark
8. 2026-06-07
   listed $309,545 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,922
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,339
• − Property taxes: −$4,643
• − Insurance: −$1,548
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,554
• − Management: −$2,554
• − Depreciation: −$9,005
• Taxable loss: −$5,721
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,373
• After-tax cash flow: $921/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms, and a good exterior. It has potential for further value increases through cosmetic updates and smart home features.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior brick and repainting interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Replacing the luxury vinyl plank flooring with hardwood or tile — Hardwood or tile flooring can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances to high-end models — High-end appliances can attract more buyers and renters.
• Both Installing smart home features like smart lighting and security systems — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior brick and repainting interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Replacing the luxury vinyl plank flooring with hardwood or tile — Hardwood or tile flooring can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances to high-end models — High-end appliances can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Installing smart home features like smart lighting and security systems — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830570
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $63,457
• Composite: 31.63/100
• National rank: #5938
• State rank: #477 of 826 in TX

Livability — Midland

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #2192

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midland, TX
• County: Midland County · 168,494 people
• City population: 168,494
• Metro: Midland, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,653
• Household income: $105,310
• Rent vs Own: 28.8% rent · 71.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1557.0

Population outlook (Midland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 220,895 people
• By 2030: 253,667 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 325,498 · +47.4%
• By 2050: 404,168 · +83.0%
• By 2075: 609,802 · +176.1%
• By 2100: 760,172 · +244.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 20% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Midland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.5) · D 19.3% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -57.3pp · 2024: -60.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.5 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+61.5 2008: R+57.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -300.44%
• Current HPI: 207.2904
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.56%
• Metro: Midland, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B