OAKRIDGE Plan · Forney, TX 75126

$222,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,311 sqft · SingleFamily · 311 Days on market

Good condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 310 days

🏗️ New construction. The $222,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $245,927.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $223k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $45 ($538/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (1.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.1% in Forney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#98 in TX, #3,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2200 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 311 days — a 12% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $196,239 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 311 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.78%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $245,927
• List price: $222,999
• Delta: -9.32%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2242 Walden Pond Blvd	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,311 (0%)	12mo	$243,999	$186	87
1904 Flaxen Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,451 (+11%)	1mo	$220,999	$152	77
1409 Grove Pond	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,385 (+6%)	8mo	$299,970	$217	75
1415 Grove Pond Rd	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,451 (+11%)	3mo	$215,499	$149	70
1413 Grove Pond Rd	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+11%)	3mo	$217,399	$149	69
1916 Flaxen Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,451 (+11%)	14mo	$234,999	$162	65
2208 Heaton St	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,449 (+10%)	3mo	$245,000	$169	60
1526 Pemrose Way	0.74mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,314 (+0%)	2mo	$255,000	$194	59
2224 Heaton St	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,423 (+8%)	7mo	$259,990	$183	57
1810 Cabin Wood Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,451 (+11%)	1mo	$217,174	$150	47
1430 Everett Gardens Way	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,465 (+12%)	4mo	$240,000	$164	46
2033 Avondown Rd	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,402 (+7%)	15mo	$268,000	$191	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-40,420
• Equity at exit: $36,669

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-45,125
• Equity at exit: $21,263

Cash invested: $68,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 2200
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,208 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,290
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$307 /mo · $3,689/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$464
• Net cashflow: $45

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,151

Max offer price $245,927

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $215	-5% $130	+0% $45	+5% $-40	+10% $-125
Rent	-10% $-130	-5% $-42	+0% $45	+5% $132	+10% $219
Rate	-1.0pp $169	-0.5pp $107	base $45	+0.5pp $-19	+1.0pp $-84

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,482
• Closing costs: $7,378
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1412 Grove Pond Rd Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1708	$2,500	$1.46	20d	1	0.23mi
1108 Redcoat Dr , TX	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,250	$1.25	5d	1	0.27mi
525 Ardsley Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1775	$2,395	$1.35	0d	1	0.41mi
1012 Barkers Pond Ave Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1710	$2,295	$1.34	4d	1	0.44mi
2207 Heaton Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1423	$2,100	$1.48	45d	1	0.44mi
1450 Whaley Dr Forney, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	922	$2,532	$2.75	0d	20	0.45mi
2217 Perrymead Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1423	$2,360	$1.66	5d	1	0.51mi
1105 N Gateway Blvd Forney, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	987	$1,842	$1.87	0d	30	0.56mi
1750 Gleasondale Pl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,200	$1.35	45d	1	0.64mi
1759 Gleasondale Pl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1726	$2,050	$1.19	25d	1	0.65mi
1430 Everett Gardens Way Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1465	$1,950	$1.33	14d	1	0.67mi
1100 N Gateway Blvd Forney, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	892	$1,819	$2.04	0d	30	0.69mi
2023 Avondown Rd Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1640	$2,191	$1.34	0d	1	0.70mi
1205 Gateway Blvd Forney, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	957	$2,437	$2.55	45d	1	0.71mi
1200 N Gateway Blvd Forney, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	848	$1,658	$1.96	0d	30	0.73mi
1462 Everett Gardens Way Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1858	$2,195	$1.18	3d	1	0.73mi
1462 Everett Gardens Way Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1858	$2,195	$1.18	25d	1	0.73mi
2105 Cardinal Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1763	$2,200	$1.25	23d	1	0.85mi
10900 Reeder Ln Forney, TX	3.0	1.5	1186	$3,200	$2.70	23d	1	0.86mi
2201 Woodberry Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1839	$2,050	$1.11	45d	1	0.87mi
2421 Eldor Way Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1680	$2,195	$1.31	25d	1	0.87mi
1405 N Gateway Blvd Forney, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$3,920	$4.19	0d	1	0.88mi
236 Pennridge Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1871	$2,295	$1.23	25d	1	0.91mi
2106 Bluebell Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1541	$1,950	$1.27	6d	1	0.93mi
2029 Cone Flower Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1604	$1,816	$1.13	8d	1	0.96mi
2015 Gardenia Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1598	$1,850	$1.16	22d	1	1.07mi
4432 Thalia Way Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1816	$2,100	$1.16	45d	1	1.09mi
2009 Brook Meadow Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1714	$1,800	$1.05	45d	1	1.09mi
2000 Natchez Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1551	$1,819	$1.17	45d	1	1.12mi
2101 Wildwood Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1558	$1,900	$1.22	45d	1	1.16mi
507 Thunder Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,300	$1.28	0d	1	1.25mi
224 Independence Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1562	$2,095	$1.34	0d	1	1.29mi
300 Trailhouse Ln Forney, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1041	$2,115	$2.03	0d	37	1.30mi
213 Independence Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1487	$1,900	$1.28	45d	1	1.35mi
201 Wildwood Blvd Forney, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	964	$1,955	$2.03	0d	33	1.36mi
3039 Boran Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1690	$2,000	$1.18	45d	1	1.42mi
113 Galloping Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1482	$1,769	$1.19	18d	1	1.42mi
3095 Barzona Rd Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1683	$1,850	$1.10	18d	1	1.43mi
204 Freedom Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1596	$1,925	$1.21	3d	1	1.45mi
110 Meadow Ct Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1840	$1,783	$0.97	0d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $222,999 Active 311 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $222,999 Active 308 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $222,999 Active 307 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $222,999 Active 306 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $222,999 Active 305 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $222,999 Active 303 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $222,999 Active 302 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $222,999 Active 299 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $222,999 Active 298 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $222,999 Active 297 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $222,999 Active 294 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $222,999 Active 293 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $222,999 Active 292 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $222,999 Active 291 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $222,999 Active 290 DOM
16. 2025-10-13
    price $244,999 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests.

17. 2025-08-14
    listed $222,999 Active 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests.

18. 2025-02-08
    status Active 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests.

19. 2025-02-07
    historical 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests.

20. 2024-12-15
    price $222,999 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests.

21. 2024-12-06
    price $244,999 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests.

22. 2024-10-08
    price $241,999 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests.

23. 2024-09-27
    listed $239,999 Active 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,496
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,776
• − Property taxes: −$3,689
• − Insurance: −$1,230
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,120
• − Management: −$2,120
• − Depreciation: −$7,154
• Taxable loss: −$3,591
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$862
• After-tax cash flow: $1,400/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-level home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. It has a good potential for increasing its value with minor cosmetic updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Improves curb appeal and rental value
• Both Interior paint touch-ups — Enhances interior appearance and resale value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Improves curb appeal and rental value ↑
• Both Interior paint touch-ups — Enhances interior appearance and resale value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

Livability — Forney

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #3339

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• City population: 84,799
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1306.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+2.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-13 Price Changed $244,999 Zillow
• 2025-08-14 Listed $222,999 Zillow
• 2025-02-08 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-02-07 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-12-15 Price Changed $222,999 Zillow
• 2024-12-06 Price Changed $244,999 Zillow
• 2024-10-08 Price Changed $241,999 Zillow
• 2024-09-27 Listed $239,999 Zillow