711 Old Canyon Rd #27 · Fremont, CA 94536

$158,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 900 sqft · Manufactured · 59 Days on market

Built 1970 $176/sqft · 23% below area Est $205k · 23% under ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +7.3/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Senior Mobile Home Park. Living Rm / Dining Rm combo w/Built-In China Cabinet. Interior Laundry, Washer & Dryer Stay. Large Covered Side Porch. Across from Pool, Hot Tub + Clubhouse! Do you love the outdoors? Large Back Yard with Amazing View of the Hills. Covered Parking. 2 Storage Sheds.

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Sauna
• Pool

Tags

• QUIET LOCATION
• BEAUTIFUL VIEWS
• CLUBHOUSE
• POOL
• SAUNA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $158k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $158k).
• Recommended offer: $153k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.1% vs local median 1.2% in Fremont — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#10 in CA, #561 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Fremont Unified (suburban): math 76% / reading 84% proficiency, ranked #23 of 517 in CA (top 4%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 173 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.8% rent growth), your $44k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $158k implies a 187% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,260 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.81% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.54%
• DSCR: 2.40
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $205,095
• List price: $158,000
• Delta: -22.96%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
711 Old Canyon Rd #56	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,008 (+12%)	1mo	$223,000	$221	75
711 Old Canyon Rd #67	0.09mi	2/1.0	960 (+7%)	19mo	$110,000	$115	69
711 Old Canyon Rd #113	0.00mi	2/2.0	960 (+7%)	23mo	$140,000	$146	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.83% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.15×
• Total profit: $50,911
• Equity at exit: $23,558

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.39×
• Total profit: $149,911
• Equity at exit: $13,661

Cash invested: $44,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94536

• Rents YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,854 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$829
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$198 /mo · $2,370/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$599
• Net cashflow: $1,163

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,382

Max offer price $158,000

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,500
• Closing costs: $4,740
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
37987 Vallejo St Fremont, CA	1.0	1.0	600	$2,250	$3.75	43d	1	0.35mi
38416 Mission Blvd Fremont, CA	2.0	1.0	507	$2,698	$5.32	2d	11	0.36mi
37847 Niles Blvd Apt 10 Fremont, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,400	$2.67	43d	1	0.48mi
38738 Aurora Ter Fremont, CA	2.0	1.5	1123	$3,296	$2.93	10d	1	0.65mi
38627 Cherry Ln #36 Fremont, CA	1.0	1.0	623	$2,250	$3.61	20d	1	0.91mi
37189 2nd St Fremont, CA	2.0	1.0	645	$3,000	$4.65	5d	1	0.92mi
38680 Waterside Cir Fremont, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	990	$3,442	$3.48	1d	5	1.30mi
38561 Princeton Ter #16 Fremont, CA	2.0	2.0	823	$2,900	$3.52	43d	1	1.33mi
1001 Beethoven Cmn Fremont, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1059	$3,126	$2.95	1d	9	1.36mi
39206 Guardino Dr #208 Fremont, CA	1.0	1.0	693	$2,490	$3.59	20d	1	1.39mi
39451 Gallaudet Dr Fremont, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	906	$3,479	$3.84	1d	11	1.45mi
2000 Walnut Ave Fremont, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	920	$3,931	$4.27	1d	11	1.46mi
39219 Guardino Dr Fremont, CA	2.0	1.0	844	$2,750	$3.26	12d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2015-10-02
   soldstatus $55,000 Sold 295-char remark

   Show marketing remark (295 chars)

   Senior Mobile Home Park. Living Rm / Dining Rm combo w/Built-In China Cabinet. Interior Laundry, Washer & Dryer Stay. Large Covered Side Porch. Across from Pool, Hot Tub + Clubhouse! Do you love the outdoors? Large Back Yard with Amazing View of the Hills. Covered Parking. 2 Storage Sheds.

2. 2015-09-20
   status Pending 295-char remark

   Show marketing remark (295 chars)

   Senior Mobile Home Park. Living Rm / Dining Rm combo w/Built-In China Cabinet. Interior Laundry, Washer & Dryer Stay. Large Covered Side Porch. Across from Pool, Hot Tub + Clubhouse! Do you love the outdoors? Large Back Yard with Amazing View of the Hills. Covered Parking. 2 Storage Sheds.

3. 2015-09-10
   listed $64,000 New 295-char remark

   Show marketing remark (295 chars)

   Senior Mobile Home Park. Living Rm / Dining Rm combo w/Built-In China Cabinet. Interior Laundry, Washer & Dryer Stay. Large Covered Side Porch. Across from Pool, Hot Tub + Clubhouse! Do you love the outdoors? Large Back Yard with Amazing View of the Hills. Covered Parking. 2 Storage Sheds.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 16 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,251
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,850
• − Property taxes: −$2,370
• − Insurance: −$790
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,740
• − Management: −$2,740
• − Depreciation: −$4,596
• Taxable income: $12,164
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,919
• After-tax cash flow: $11,036/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fremont Unified
• NCES district ID: 0614400
• Math proficiency: 76% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 84% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $105,489
• Composite: 72.94/100
• National rank: #191
• State rank: #23 of 517 in CA

Livability — Fremont

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #561

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fremont, CA
• County: Alameda County · 1,614,355 people
• City population: 228,297
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 70,619
• Household income: $167,662
• Rent vs Own: 41.4% rent · 58.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 2414.0

Population outlook (Alameda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,928,884 people
• By 2030: 2,069,146 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 2,338,405 · +21.2%
• By 2050: 2,586,608 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 3,061,911 · +58.7%
• By 2100: 3,234,133 · +67.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 51% White 24% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 9% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 44% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 45% English-only · Other Indo-European 17% Chinese 11% Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Alameda

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 74.6% · R 21.0% · Other 4.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.9pp toward R · 2008: 59.5pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+62.5 2016: D+64.4 2012: D+59.8 2008: D+59.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1370.22%
• Current HPI: 388.7956
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.83%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-14.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2015-10-02 Sold (MLS) $55,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2015-09-20 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2015-09-10 Listed $64,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR