207 W 4th St · Millersburg, KY 40348

$139,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Other public records · 112 Days on market

9,975 sqft lot $139/sqft · 38% below area Est $226k · 38% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Appreciation +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come take a look at this 3 bedroom / 1 bath single family home located in the quaint little town of Millersburg. Home of Mustard Seed Hill. Many updates recently completed. This home would be great to become your own or investment property to add to your portfolio.

Key facts

• 9,975 sq ft lot
• Listed 112 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $50 ($598/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (19.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $112k (19.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#274 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bourbon County (town): math 26% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #108 of 165 in KY (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 90 units permitted in Bourbon County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 10662% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $68k; list at $140k implies a 106% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $112,319 (19.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.53%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $225,691
• List price: $139,900
• Delta: -38.01%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-19,559
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-13,198
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40348

• Home prices YoY: -2.7%
• Active inventory: 4
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,123 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $547/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $50

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,060

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 112 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 111 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 110 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 109 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,900 Active 107 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 106 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $139,900 Active 104 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 103 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 102 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $150,000 Active 101 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 97 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 96 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 95 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 94 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 93 DOM
16. 2026-04-22
    listed $1,300
17. 2026-03-06
    historical $1,325
18. 2026-02-26
    listed $150,000 Active 266-char remark

    Show marketing remark (266 chars)

    Come take a look at this 3 bedroom / 1 bath single family home located in the quaint little town of Millersburg. Home of Mustard Seed Hill. Many updates recently completed. This home would be great to become your own or investment property to add to your portfolio.

19. 2026-02-23
    listed $1,325
20. 2025-05-06
    soldstatus $68,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $547 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,203 · $100/mo
• Expected delta: +$657/yr (+$55/mo · 120.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,478
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$547
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,078
• − Management: −$1,078
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$1,831
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$439
• After-tax cash flow: $1,037/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bourbon County
• NCES district ID: 2100540
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -21.00%
• Median HH income: $47,654
• Composite: 25.13/100
• National rank: #7523
• State rank: #108 of 165 in KY

Livability — Millersburg

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #274
• US rank: #13348

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Millersburg, KY
• City population: 522
• Population (ZIP): 522

Population outlook (Bourbon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,485 people
• By 2030: 20,559 · +0.4%
• By 2040: 20,491 · +0.0%
• By 2050: 20,065 · -2.1%
• By 2075: 19,173 · -6.4%
• By 2100: 16,646 · -18.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 10% Two or more races 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · German/W. Germanic 8% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Bourbon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.5) · D 32.4% · R 65.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.2pp · 2024: -33.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.5 2020: R+30.0 2016: R+31.6 2012: R+20.4 2008: R+17.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.62%
• Current HPI: 165.3523
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-98.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed for Rent $1,300 TENANTCLOUD
• 2026-03-06 Rental Removed $1,325 TENANTCLOUD
• 2026-02-26 Listed $150,000 ImagineMLS
• 2026-02-23 Listed for Rent $1,325 TENANTCLOUD
• 2025-05-06 Sold (Public Records) $68,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $547 · +34.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.