5861 Arcadia Cir · Austin, TX 78617

$77,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,333 sqft · Other · 33 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Appreciation +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks

2021 Clayton manufactured home on leased lot in Oak Ranch Reserve 55+ age restricted community. All new appliances 2024. Recent plumbing and electrical work done to ensure new buyer faces no issues. Repainted interior 2025. HVAC and water heater serviced 2026. Screened in porch new as of 2025. Carpet in bedrooms with LVP in dining, kitchen, and living room Average monthly lot rent $850 includes lot lease, water, sewer, trash, and composte collection.

Key facts

• Recent plumbing work
• Manufactured home
• New appliances

Tags

• MANUFACTURED HOME
• LEASED LOT
• AGE RESTRICTED COMMUNITY
• NEW APPLIANCES
• RECENT PLUMBING WORK
• RECENT ELECTRICAL WORK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 2021
• Construction: Living area approximately 1333; Built in 2021
• Exterior features: Located in the Del Valle subdivision

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $77k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $988 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $77k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.7% vs local median 1.8% in Austin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#16 in TX, #1,208 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D, crime F.
• Del Valle ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #749 of 826 in TX (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 246 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $532 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,690 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 55.00%
• DSCR: 3.45
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 49.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.08×
• Total profit: $44,844
• Equity at exit: $11,481

10-year hold

• IRR: 54.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.56×
• Total profit: $98,407
• Equity at exit: $6,658

Cash invested: $21,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78617

• Home prices YoY: -1.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 246
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,924 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$404
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$96 /mo · $1,155/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$404
• Net cashflow: $988

Break-even live

Break-even rent $674

Max offer price $77,000

Occupancy floor 44%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,250
• Closing costs: $2,310
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12417 Sky Harbor Dr Del Valle, TX	3.0	2.0	1586	$1,975	$1.25	24d	1	0.27mi
12604 Paloma Blanca Way Del Valle, TX	3.0	2.0	1423	$1,700	$1.19	16d	1	0.28mi
5501 Ross Rd Del Valle, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	950	$1,876	$1.97	1d	16	0.30mi
5820 Angel Dr Del Valle, TX	3.0	2.0	1203	$1,950	$1.62	17d	1	0.31mi
5820 Angel Dr Del Valle, TX	3.0	2.0	1203	$1,850	$1.54	2d	1	0.31mi
12305 Paloma Blanca Way Del Valle, TX	3.0	2.0	1208	$1,749	$1.45	43d	1	0.37mi
5816 Ross Rd Unit 1 Del Valle, TX	2.0	2.0	1134	$1,725	$1.52	24d	1	0.41mi
6101 Ross Rd Del Valle, TX	1.0–2.0	10.0	937	$2,140	$2.28	1d	43	0.55mi
6200 Albany Sleigh Dr Del Valle, TX	3.0	2.0	1647	$2,350	$1.43	43d	1	0.63mi
13229 Coomes Dr Del Valle, TX	3.0	2.0	1703	$1,995	$1.17	12d	1	0.66mi
13400 Coomes Dr Del Valle, TX	3.0	2.0	1625	$1,895	$1.17	4d	1	0.75mi
13400 Coomes Dr Del Valle, TX	3.0	2.5	1625	$1,895	$1.17	3d	1	0.75mi
6400 Wagon Spring St Del Valle, TX	3.0	2.5	1665	$1,975	$1.19	4d	1	0.77mi
6409 Wagon Spring St Del Valle, TX	4.0	2.0	1421	$1,895	$1.33	16d	1	0.78mi
6420 Carriage Pines Dr Del Valle, TX	3.0	2.5	1665	$1,995	$1.20	43d	1	0.79mi
5525 Victory Gallop Dr Del Valle, TX	3.0	2.5	1788	$1,850	$1.03	43d	1	0.93mi
5521 Victory Gallop Dr Del Valle, TX	3.0	2.5	1788	$2,000	$1.12	14d	1	0.94mi
12100 1/2 Ferrystone Glen Dr Unit 1240330P Del Valle, TX	2.0	2.0	1140	$3,728	$3.27	20d	1	0.94mi
6514 Ross Rd Del Valle, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	877	$1,614	$1.84	1d	19	0.94mi
4700 Ross Rd Del Valle, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	932	$1,854	$1.99	14d	11	1.18mi
7100 Dancing Wind Ln Del Valle, TX	3.0	2.5	1568	$1,850	$1.18	43d	1	1.25mi
7136 Spotted Leaf Way Del Valle, TX	3.0	2.5	1377	$1,900	$1.38	24d	1	1.27mi
7121 Elroy Rd Del Valle, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	951	$2,006	$2.11	1d	26	1.29mi
12901 Staywell Way Del Valle, TX	3.0	2.0	1860	$2,200	$1.18	43d	1	1.29mi
13917 Gilwell Dr Del Valle, TX	3.0	2.5	1743	$2,100	$1.20	17d	1	1.29mi
7224 Spotted Leaf Way Del Valle, TX	3.0	2.0	1646	$1,950	$1.18	14d	1	1.31mi
7232 Dancing Wind Ln Del Valle, TX	3.0	2.5	1392	$1,725	$1.24	4d	1	1.34mi
7236 Dancing Wind Ln Del Valle, TX	4.0	2.5	1566	$1,750	$1.12	43d	1	1.35mi
12213 Rising Moon Ln Del Valle, TX	4.0	2.5	1578	$1,950	$1.24	21d	1	1.39mi
11724 Gemmer St Del Valle, TX	3.0	2.0	1032	$1,750	$1.70	24d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $77,000 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $77,000 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $77,000 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   price $77,000 Active 30 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $82,999 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $82,999 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $82,999 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $82,999 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $82,999 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $82,999 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $82,999 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $82,999 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $82,999 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $82,999 Active 15 DOM
15. 2026-05-17
    listed $82,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,092
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,313
• − Property taxes: −$1,155
• − Insurance: −$385
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,847
• − Management: −$1,847
• − Depreciation: −$2,240
• Taxable income: $11,304
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,713
• After-tax cash flow: $9,144/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with recent updates and maintenance. It has a good curb appeal and is ready for a fresh paint job and some landscaping improvements to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making the home more attractive to potential buyers and renters.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve the overall appearance and increase the property's value.
• Resale Upgrading the appliances — Upgrading to newer, more energy-efficient appliances can increase the home's resale value and attract more buyers.
• Resale Upgrading the flooring — Upgrading to higher-quality flooring can enhance the home's resale value and appeal to potential buyers.
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — Upgrading the HVAC system can improve energy efficiency and comfort, making the home more attractive to both buyers and renters.
• Both Upgrading the windows — Upgrading to energy-efficient windows can improve energy efficiency and reduce utility costs, making the home more attractive to both buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making the home more attractive to potential buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve the overall appearance and increase the property's value. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the appliances — Upgrading to newer, more energy-efficient appliances can increase the home's resale value and attract more buyers. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the flooring — Upgrading to higher-quality flooring can enhance the home's resale value and appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — Upgrading the HVAC system can improve energy efficiency and comfort, making the home more attractive to both buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Upgrading the windows — Upgrading to energy-efficient windows can improve energy efficiency and reduce utility costs, making the home more attractive to both buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Del Valle ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816620
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,322
• Composite: 19.13/100
• National rank: #8830
• State rank: #749 of 826 in TX

Livability — Austin

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #1208

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Austin, TX
• County: Travis County · 1,299,254 people
• City population: 1,066,854
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,756
• Household income: $71,640
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 681.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 75% Two or more races 33% White 16% Black 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 68% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada
• Languages at home: 41% English-only · Spanish 57% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.24%
• Current HPI: 192.3518
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.36%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Listed $82,999 FSBO.com