2200 Lancaster Dr SE Unit 7A · Salem, OR 97317

$84,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 552 sqft · Manufactured public records · 72 Days on market

Built 2026 $154/sqft · 661% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Bright and Beautiful Palm Harbor 1 bed, 1 bath home with 672sq. ft. You open the door and walk into an open floor plan with lots of windows to provide tons of natural light making the home bright and airy with high ceilings. The kitchen features an abundance of cabinets and counterspace and stainless steel appliances. The bedroom is spacious with built in storage in the closet. Outside you have a wonderful porch to enjoy the outdoors along with a carport and storage shed. Sundial MHP is a beautiful 55+ community in the heart of the Willamette Valley. The community is pet-friendly and boasts a calendar of activities, a neighborhood atmosphere and an impressive lineup of social amenities such as a club house, indoor pool/spa, library & billiard room.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Built in storage
• Wonderful porch

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• ABUNDANCE OF CABINETS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• BUILT IN STORAGE
• WONDERFUL PORCH
• INDOOR POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $387 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $80k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 2.9% in Salem — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#59 in OR, #2,084 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Salem-Keizer SD 24J (urban): math 34% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #103 of 183 in OR (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 133 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $587 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.6% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $79,806 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.53%
• DSCR: 1.87
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $13,589
• List price: $84,900
• Delta: 524.76%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $10,431
• Equity at exit: $12,659

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.64×
• Total profit: $38,975
• Equity at exit: $7,341

Cash invested: $23,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97317

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,232 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$445
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$106 /mo · $1,274/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $387

Break-even live

Break-even rent $743

Max offer price $84,900

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,225
• Closing costs: $2,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4665 Campbell Dr SE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	923	$1,299	$1.41	13d	1	0.58mi
1569 Whitaker Dr SE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	933	$1,299	$1.39	13d	1	0.90mi
3897 Meadowlawn Loop SE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	962	$1,280	$1.33	13d	26	1.10mi
5192 Caplinger Rd SE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	927	$1,305	$1.41	13d	25	1.25mi
4433 Mahrt Ave SE Unit 4433-205 Salem, OR	1.0	1.0	688	$1,225	$1.78	43d	1	1.34mi
4242 State St Salem, OR	1.0	1.0	684	$1,325	$1.94	23d	1	1.42mi
143 Connecticut Ave SE Unit 143 Salem, OR	1.0	1.0	705	$950	$1.35	13d	1	1.45mi
4265 State St Unit 2 Salem, OR	1.0	1.0	500	$995	$1.99	43d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $84,900 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $84,900 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $84,900 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $84,900 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $84,900 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $84,900 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $84,900 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $84,900 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $84,900 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $84,900 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $84,900 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $84,900 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $84,900 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $84,900 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-04-08
    listed $119,900 Active 764-char remark

    Show marketing remark (764 chars)

    Bright and Beautiful Palm Harbor 1 bed, 1 bath home with 672sq. ft. You open the door and walk into an open floor plan with lots of windows to provide tons of natural light making the home bright and airy with high ceilings. The kitchen features an abundance of cabinets and counterspace and stainless steel appliances. The bedroom is spacious with built in storage in the closet. Outside you have a wonderful porch to enjoy the outdoors along with a carport and storage shed. Sundial MHP is a beautiful 55+ community in the heart of the Willamette Valley. The community is pet-friendly and boasts a calendar of activities, a neighborhood atmosphere and an impressive lineup of social amenities such as a club house, indoor pool/spa, library & billiard room.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,789
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,756
• − Property taxes: −$1,274
• − Insurance: −$424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,183
• − Management: −$1,183
• − Depreciation: −$2,470
• Taxable income: $3,499
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$840
• After-tax cash flow: $3,803/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Salem-Keizer SD 24J
• NCES district ID: 4110820
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,632
• Composite: 37.16/100
• National rank: #9017
• State rank: #103 of 183 in OR

Livability — Salem

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #59
• US rank: #2084

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Salem, OR
• County: Marion County · 258,219 people
• City population: 193,601
• Metro: Salem, OR
• Population (ZIP): 25,966
• Household income: $84,393
• Rent vs Own: 29.2% rent · 70.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 395.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 360,940 people
• By 2030: 375,178 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 400,914 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 422,187 · +17.0%
• By 2075: 460,305 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 464,025 · +28.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 17% Asian 2% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 22% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.5% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -2.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.0 2020: D+1.1 2016: R+5.0 2012: R+3.5 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -471.73%
• Current HPI: 307.3264
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.62%
• Metro: Salem, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Listed $119,900 Zillow