110 Red Oak Dr · Payne Springs, TX 75156

$225,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 27 Days on market

Built 2025 5,968 sqft lot Est $176k · 28% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Stop the Car! You don't want to miss the chance to sit back and relax just minutes from Cedar Creek Lake! This charming 2 bedroom, 2 bath home has been well maintained and loved. Enjoy Mornings on the covered back porch with plenty of room to entertain, or evenings on the front porch with a beautiful view! New Upgraded Windows, updated kitchen cabinets, 3 year old fence, and covered porches. This home also sits on three total lots equaling just over half an acre! Call today to schedule your private tour!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Large dining
• Close to the lake

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• SPLIT BEDROOMS
• LARGE DINING
• CLOSE TO THE LAKE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-72 ($-862/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $212k (5.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $161k (28.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $161k (28.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.8% in Payne Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#985 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Mabank ISD (town): math 47% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #273 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lakeview El (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 431 students, 74% FRL); Mabank Int (math 49% / reading 34%, grade F, #595 of 1,662 statewide, top 37%, 611 students, 66% FRL); Mabank H S (math 36% / reading 53%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 1,111 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.8%/yr); 699 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $161,319 (28.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.37%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $176,320
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20213 Leisureland Rd	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+1%)	9mo	$179,000	$145	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-45,867
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-64,526
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75156

• Rents YoY: -5.8%
• Active inventory: 699
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,613 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $871/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $-72

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,704

Max offer price $212,307

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $56	-5% $-8	+0% $-72	+5% $-136	+10% $-199
Rent	-10% $-199	-5% $-136	+0% $-72	+5% $-8	+10% $56
Rate	-1.0pp $41	-0.5pp $-15	base $-72	+0.5pp $-130	+1.0pp $-189

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
114 Timber Crst Mabank, TX	2.0	2.0	950	$1,300	$1.37	45d	1	0.39mi
114 Sierra Madre St Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,800	$1.42	45d	1	0.89mi
112 Queenswood Dr Mabank, TX	4.0	2.0	1376	$1,595	$1.16	45d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-05-23
   soldstatus Closed
2. 2026-04-05
   status Pending
3. 2026-03-30
   historical Active Option Contract
4. 2026-03-22
   price $225,000
5. 2026-03-09
   listed $230,000 Active
6. 2026-03-06
   historical
7. 2026-03-06
   price $230,000
8. 2026-02-22
   price $235,000
9. 2026-02-13
   price $240,000
10. 2026-01-05
    price $250,000
11. 2025-11-14
    price $254,500
12. 2025-09-06
    listed $255,000 Active
13. 2021-10-01
    historical 509-char remark

    Show marketing remark (509 chars)

    Stop the Car! You don't want to miss the chance to sit back and relax just minutes from Cedar Creek Lake! This charming 2 bedroom, 2 bath home has been well maintained and loved. Enjoy Mornings on the covered back porch with plenty of room to entertain, or evenings on the front porch with a beautiful view! New Upgraded Windows, updated kitchen cabinets, 3 year old fence, and covered porches. This home also sits on three total lots equaling just over half an acre! Call today to schedule your private tour!

14. 2021-09-30
    soldstatus Sold 509-char remark

    Show marketing remark (509 chars)

    Stop the Car! You don't want to miss the chance to sit back and relax just minutes from Cedar Creek Lake! This charming 2 bedroom, 2 bath home has been well maintained and loved. Enjoy Mornings on the covered back porch with plenty of room to entertain, or evenings on the front porch with a beautiful view! New Upgraded Windows, updated kitchen cabinets, 3 year old fence, and covered porches. This home also sits on three total lots equaling just over half an acre! Call today to schedule your private tour!

15. 2021-09-12
    status Pending 509-char remark

    Show marketing remark (509 chars)

    Stop the Car! You don't want to miss the chance to sit back and relax just minutes from Cedar Creek Lake! This charming 2 bedroom, 2 bath home has been well maintained and loved. Enjoy Mornings on the covered back porch with plenty of room to entertain, or evenings on the front porch with a beautiful view! New Upgraded Windows, updated kitchen cabinets, 3 year old fence, and covered porches. This home also sits on three total lots equaling just over half an acre! Call today to schedule your private tour!

16. 2021-08-25
    price $115,000 509-char remark

    Show marketing remark (509 chars)

    Stop the Car! You don't want to miss the chance to sit back and relax just minutes from Cedar Creek Lake! This charming 2 bedroom, 2 bath home has been well maintained and loved. Enjoy Mornings on the covered back porch with plenty of room to entertain, or evenings on the front porch with a beautiful view! New Upgraded Windows, updated kitchen cabinets, 3 year old fence, and covered porches. This home also sits on three total lots equaling just over half an acre! Call today to schedule your private tour!

17. 2021-08-10
    price $120,000 509-char remark

    Show marketing remark (509 chars)

    Stop the Car! You don't want to miss the chance to sit back and relax just minutes from Cedar Creek Lake! This charming 2 bedroom, 2 bath home has been well maintained and loved. Enjoy Mornings on the covered back porch with plenty of room to entertain, or evenings on the front porch with a beautiful view! New Upgraded Windows, updated kitchen cabinets, 3 year old fence, and covered porches. This home also sits on three total lots equaling just over half an acre! Call today to schedule your private tour!

18. 2021-07-30
    listed $125,000 Active 509-char remark

    Show marketing remark (509 chars)

    Stop the Car! You don't want to miss the chance to sit back and relax just minutes from Cedar Creek Lake! This charming 2 bedroom, 2 bath home has been well maintained and loved. Enjoy Mornings on the covered back porch with plenty of room to entertain, or evenings on the front porch with a beautiful view! New Upgraded Windows, updated kitchen cabinets, 3 year old fence, and covered porches. This home also sits on three total lots equaling just over half an acre! Call today to schedule your private tour!

19. 1999-09-03
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $871 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,118 · $343/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,246/yr (+$271/mo · 372.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 60% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,358
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$871
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,549
• − Management: −$1,549
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$4,884
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,172
• After-tax cash flow: $310/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mabank ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828680
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,321
• Composite: 38.15/100
• National rank: #4267
• State rank: #273 of 826 in TX

Livability — Payne Springs

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #985
• US rank: #17539

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Payne Springs, TX
• County: Henderson County · 34,977 people
• City population: 16,333
• Metro: Athens, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,333
• Household income: $60,867
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 400.0

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% European 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -216.77%
• Current HPI: 199.8108
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.76%
• Metro: Athens, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+80.0% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2026-04-05 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-03-30 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-03-22 Price Changed $225,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-09 Listed $230,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-06 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $230,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-22 Price Changed $235,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $240,000 NTREIS
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $250,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-14 Price Changed $254,500 NTREIS
• 2025-09-06 Listed $255,000 NTREIS
• 2021-10-01 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2021-09-30 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2021-09-12 Pending — NTREIS
• 2021-08-25 Price Changed $115,000 NTREIS
• 2021-08-10 Price Changed $120,000 NTREIS
• 2021-07-30 Listed $125,000 NTREIS
• 1999-09-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $871 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.