306 Cedar St · Drake, ND 58736

$84,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,864 sqft · Other · 231 Days on market

Built 1930 7,000 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Main floor laundry
• Formal dining area

Tags

• MAIN FLOOR LAUNDRY
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• FORMAL DINING AREA
• SPACIOUS FULL BATH
• COVERED PORCH
• OVERSIZED DOUBLE GARAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Gravel parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Below-grade finished area; Full basement
• Exterior features: Porch; Lot approximately 50 x 140; R1 zoning

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Oven; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (propane); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Full unfinished basement; Porch
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $84k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $447 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $84k).
• Recommended offer: $74k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#244 in ND) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Drake 57 (rural): math 11% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #152 of 169 in ND (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in McHenry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($581 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.3% local appreciation)).
• McHenry County population projected at +57% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 231 days — a 12% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $23k; list at $84k implies a 265% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $73,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 231 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.78%
• DSCR: 2.01
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.29% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.33×
• Total profit: $31,201
• Equity at exit: $29,963

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.44×
• Total profit: $80,986
• Equity at exit: $40,834

Cash invested: $23,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58736

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 3
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,217 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$441
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $471/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $447

Break-even live

Break-even rent $652

Max offer price $84,000

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,000
• Closing costs: $2,520
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $84,000 Active 231 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $84,000 Active 230 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $84,000 Active 229 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $84,000 Active 228 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $84,000 Active 226 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $84,000 Active 225 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $84,000 Active 222 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $84,000 Active 221 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $84,000 Active 220 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $84,000 Active 218 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $84,000 Active 216 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $84,000 Active 215 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $84,000 Active 214 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $84,000 Active 213 DOM
15. 2026-04-30
    price $84,000
16. 2026-04-22
    price $87,900
17. 2026-01-30
    price $94,900
18. 2025-10-30
    listed $99,900 Active
19. 2008-05-21
    soldstatus
20. 2006-08-03
    soldstatus $23,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ND · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $471 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $823 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: +$352/yr (+$29/mo · 74.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,602
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,705
• − Property taxes: −$471
• − Insurance: −$420
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,168
• − Management: −$1,168
• − Depreciation: −$2,444
• Taxable income: $4,226
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,014
• After-tax cash flow: $4,345/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Drake 57
• NCES district ID: 3800029
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $40,723
• Composite: 20.63/100
• National rank: #13761
• State rank: #152 of 169 in ND

Livability — Drake

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #244
• US rank: #16728

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Drake, ND
• Population (ZIP): 430

Population outlook (McHenry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,220 people
• By 2030: 7,919 · +9.7%
• By 2040: 9,489 · +31.4%
• By 2050: 11,306 · +56.6%
• By 2075: 16,500 · +128.5%
• By 2100: 20,768 · +187.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Portuguese 8% Norwegian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · German/W. Germanic 5%

Political lean MEDSL · McHenry

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.8) · D 17.5% · R 81.3% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -47.5pp toward R · 2008: -16.3pp · 2024: -63.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.8 2020: R+59.9 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+27.4 2008: R+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.29%
• Current HPI: 81.3496
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Price history

+265.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $84,000 MMLS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $87,900 MMLS
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $94,900 MMLS
• 2025-10-30 Listed $99,900 MMLS
• 2008-05-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-08-03 Sold (Public Records) $23,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $471 · +13.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.