2321 Silvercloud Dr · Lockhart, TX 78644

$215,499

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,474 sqft · SingleFamily · 44 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 5,706 sqft lot $146/sqft · 11% below area Est $243k · 11% under $36/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Newlin - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion August 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-96 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $202k (6.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (16.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $181k (16.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.0% in Lockhart — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#535 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lockhart ISD (town): math 27% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #657 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Navarro El (math 27% / reading 30%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 580 students, 72% FRL); Lockhart J H (math 22% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,301 of 1,662 statewide, top 79%, 1,433 students, 74% FRL); Lockhart H S (math 21% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,204 of 1,632 statewide, top 75%, 1,968 students, 69% FRL).
• Market conditions: 458 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 529 units permitted in Caldwell County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Caldwell County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $180,960 (16.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.90%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $243,153
• List price: $215,499
• Delta: -11.37%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2324 Silvercloud Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,474 (0%)	2mo	$215,990	$147	97
405 Thunderstorm Ave	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,442 (-2%)	0mo	$215,000	$149	87
420 Halfmoon Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,450 (-2%)	0mo	$190,000	$131	79
421 Silvercloud Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,413 (-4%)	1mo	$225,990	$160	78
417 Silvercloud Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,569 (+6%)	1mo	$219,999	$140	76
2318 Silvercloud Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-14%)	1mo	$219,990	$175	73
2330 Silvercloud Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-14%)	2mo	$224,990	$179	72
2328 Silvercloud Dr	0.05mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,667 (+13%)	2mo	$234,990	$141	70
2331 Silvercloud Dr	0.05mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,667 (+13%)	2mo	$228,990	$137	69
2306 Tornado Aly	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,450 (-2%)	1mo	$184,999	$128	66
420 Silvercloud Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-14%)	2mo	$210,990	$167	62
633 Halfmoon Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,668 (+13%)	1mo	$239,950	$144	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-40,965
• Equity at exit: $32,132

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-43,317
• Equity at exit: $18,632

Cash invested: $60,340 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78644

• Home prices YoY: -29.4%
• Active inventory: 458
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,810 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,130
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$269 /mo · $3,232/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$36
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $-96

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,931

Max offer price $201,654

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $53	-5% $-21	+0% $-96	+5% $-170	+10% $-245
Rent	-10% $-239	-5% $-167	+0% $-96	+5% $-24	+10% $47
Rate	-1.0pp $13	-0.5pp $-41	base $-96	+0.5pp $-152	+1.0pp $-208

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,875
• Closing costs: $6,465
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2329 Silvercloud Dr Lockhart, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$1,850	$1.00	18d	1	0.02mi
218 Sunshadow Dr Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1750	$1,700	$0.97	0d	1	0.22mi
2404 Night Sky Cv Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1647	$1,700	$1.03	0d	1	0.24mi
206 Sunshadow Dr Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1690	$1,750	$1.04	0d	1	0.25mi
416 Silvercloud Dr Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,599	$1.08	45d	1	0.26mi
432 Thunderstorm Ave Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1202	$1,600	$1.33	0d	1	0.30mi
415 Halfmoon Dr Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1217	$1,600	$1.31	25d	1	0.33mi
406 Halfmoon Dr Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,800	$1.24	0d	1	0.37mi
2304 Blizzard Dr Lockhart, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,700	$1.13	45d	1	0.37mi
510 Sunray Dr Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,700	$1.17	25d	1	0.47mi
2400 Fullmoon Dr Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,695	$1.15	45d	1	0.52mi
2306 Red Sky Dr Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,650	$1.10	0d	1	0.58mi
2327 Red Sky Dr Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$1,795	$1.22	25d	1	0.59mi
611 Halfmoon Dr Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,695	$1.15	13d	1	0.62mi
2306 Tornado Aly Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,600	$1.10	25d	1	0.63mi
2215 Cyclone Dr Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,600	$1.28	14d	1	0.67mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $36 · $432/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-11
   price $215,499 608-char remark

   Show marketing remark (608 chars)

   The Newlin - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion August 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

2. 2026-05-06
   price $214,990 608-char remark

   Show marketing remark (608 chars)

   The Newlin - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion August 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

3. 2026-04-24
   price $229,990 608-char remark

   Show marketing remark (608 chars)

   The Newlin - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion August 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

4. 2026-04-20
   price $231,990 608-char remark

   Show marketing remark (608 chars)

   The Newlin - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion August 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

5. 2026-04-10
   price $230,990 608-char remark

   Show marketing remark (608 chars)

   The Newlin - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion August 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

6. 2026-04-08
   price $232,990 608-char remark

   Show marketing remark (608 chars)

   The Newlin - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion August 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

7. 2026-04-07
   listed $230,990 Active 608-char remark

   Show marketing remark (608 chars)

   The Newlin - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion August 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,715
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,071
• − Property taxes: −$3,232
• − Insurance: −$1,077
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,737
• − Management: −$1,737
• − HOA: −$432
• − Depreciation: −$6,269
• Taxable loss: −$4,842
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,162
• After-tax cash flow: $14/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with no visible signs of wear or damage. It is move-in ready and ideal for both resale and rental.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lockhart ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827870
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,868
• Composite: 24.44/100
• National rank: #7674
• State rank: #657 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lockhart

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #535
• US rank: #10453

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lockhart, TX
• County: Caldwell County · 25,195 people
• City population: 22,348
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,348
• Household income: $74,709
• Rent vs Own: 25.1% rent · 74.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 324.0

Population outlook (Caldwell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,557 people
• By 2030: 49,673 · +6.7%
• By 2040: 55,827 · +19.9%
• By 2050: 61,832 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 77,212 · +65.8%
• By 2100: 89,225 · +91.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 39% Two or more races 23% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 32%

Political lean MEDSL · Caldwell

• 2024 margin: R (+14.4) · D 42.2% · R 56.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -6.0pp · 2024: -14.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.4 2020: R+9.1 2016: R+15.8 2012: R+11.1 2008: R+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -99.62%
• Current HPI: 239.7906
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $215,499 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $214,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $229,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $231,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $230,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $232,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $230,990 Unlock MLS