4357 Orlando Ave · Spring Hill, FL 34604

$134,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Manufactured public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1998 0.50 ac lot Est $233k · 43% under ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

nice home on 1/2 acre, 2 large out buildings, 1 with power, water, washer, slop sink and toilet, home has new carpet and entry porches/steps split floor plan with laundry room off kitchen, home needs a little paint and cosmetic work but can be very nice home

Key facts

• Wood front deck
• Two outbuildings
• Spacious lot

Tags

• WOOD FRONT DECK
• TWO OUTBUILDINGS
• SPACIOUS LOT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned R1A (residential); 0.5 acre lot in Tangerine Estates

Exterior

• Parking: Other parking
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Other utilities
• Home design: Manufactured home; Residential property; Frame construction
• Construction: Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Dirt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Electric range; Refrigerator; Central heating; Central air

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $134k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $603 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $134k).
• Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 4.4% in Spring Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#738 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Hernando (suburban): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #38 of 73 in FL (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Moton Elementary School (math 46% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,383 of 2,144 statewide, top 65%, 679 students, 79% FRL); D. S. Parrott Middle School (math 40% / reading 40%, grade F, #368 of 571 statewide, top 65%, 835 students, 67% FRL); Nature Coast Technical High (math 52% / reading 51%, grade D+, #167 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 1,298 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 196 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,505 units permitted in Hernando County in 2024 (318 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $926 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hernando County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $134,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.40%
• DSCR: 1.95
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $233,280
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4357 Orlando Ave	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,620 (0%)	0mo	$134,000	$83	100
16125 Putnam St	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,836 (+13%)	2mo	$175,000	$95	68
16109 La Bella St	0.24mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (-7%)	13mo	$219,000	$145	62
16092 Naples St	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,493 (-8%)	5mo	$228,000	$153	55
16154 Fort Meyers St	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-11%)	1mo	$198,500	$138	55
16104 Naples St	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,493 (-8%)	10mo	$241,000	$161	51
16104 Naples St	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,493 (-8%)	10mo	$241,000	$161	51
16077 Bradenton St	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,813 (+12%)	3mo	$251,000	$138	49
5033 Orlando Ave	0.31mi	3/3.0	1,440 (-11%)	19mo	$239,000	$166	47
16119 Naples St	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,782 (+10%)	4mo	$210,000	$118	45
5139 Orlando Ave	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,832 (+13%)	11mo	$264,200	$144	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $13,861
• Equity at exit: $19,980

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.34×
• Total profit: $50,314
• Equity at exit: $11,586

Cash invested: $37,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34604

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 196
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,119 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$703
• Tax from tax record: −$247 /mo · $2,959/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$445
• Net cashflow: $603

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,356

Max offer price $134,000

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,500
• Closing costs: $4,020
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
286 Cherry Birch LN Masaryktown, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	964	$1,884	$1.95	2d	44	0.98mi
14499 Tamarind Loop Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1688	$2,200	$1.30	12d	1	1.06mi
14501 Silversmith Cir Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1557	$2,000	$1.28	24d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-29
   listed $134,000 Active
3. 2022-08-03
   soldstatus $175,000
4. 2022-07-29
   soldstatus $175,000 Closed 258-char remark

   Show marketing remark (258 chars)

   nice home on 1/2 acre, 2 large out buildings, 1 with power, water, washer, slop sink and toilet, home has new carpet and entry porches/steps split floor plan with laundry room off kitchen, home needs a little paint and cosmetic work but can be very nice home

5. 2022-07-29
   soldstatus $175,000 258-char remark

   Show marketing remark (258 chars)

   nice home on 1/2 acre, 2 large out buildings, 1 with power, water, washer, slop sink and toilet, home has new carpet and entry porches/steps split floor plan with laundry room off kitchen, home needs a little paint and cosmetic work but can be very nice home

6. 2022-06-16
   status Pending 258-char remark

   Show marketing remark (258 chars)

   nice home on 1/2 acre, 2 large out buildings, 1 with power, water, washer, slop sink and toilet, home has new carpet and entry porches/steps split floor plan with laundry room off kitchen, home needs a little paint and cosmetic work but can be very nice home

7. 2022-06-15
   listed $175,000 Active 258-char remark

   Show marketing remark (258 chars)

   nice home on 1/2 acre, 2 large out buildings, 1 with power, water, washer, slop sink and toilet, home has new carpet and entry porches/steps split floor plan with laundry room off kitchen, home needs a little paint and cosmetic work but can be very nice home

8. 2022-06-15
   listed $175,000 258-char remark

   Show marketing remark (258 chars)

   nice home on 1/2 acre, 2 large out buildings, 1 with power, water, washer, slop sink and toilet, home has new carpet and entry porches/steps split floor plan with laundry room off kitchen, home needs a little paint and cosmetic work but can be very nice home

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,959 · $247/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,959 · $247/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,430
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,506
• − Property taxes: −$2,959
• − Insurance: −$1,468
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,034
• − Management: −$2,034
• − Depreciation: −$3,898
• Taxable income: $5,530
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,327
• After-tax cash flow: $5,903/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hernando
• NCES district ID: 1200810
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,985
• Composite: 42.03/100
• National rank: #3329
• State rank: #38 of 73 in FL

Livability — Spring Hill

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #738
• US rank: #15937

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring Hill, FL
• County: Hernando County · 169,677 people
• City population: 83,915
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 13,642
• Household income: $84,833
• Rent vs Own: 8.5% rent · 91.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 142.0

Population outlook (Hernando County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 189,218 people
• By 2030: 194,367 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 203,398 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 209,589 · +10.8%
• By 2075: 218,452 · +15.4%
• By 2100: 205,923 · +8.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hernando

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.0) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.5pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -37.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.0 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+29.0 2012: R+8.5 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.38%
• Current HPI: 276.4751
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.61%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-23.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — HCAR
• 2026-04-29 Listed $134,000 HCAR
• 2022-08-03 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records
• 2022-07-29 Sold (MLS) $175,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2022-07-29 Sold (MLS) $175,000 HCAR
• 2022-06-16 Pending — HCAR
• 2022-06-15 Listed $175,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2022-06-15 Listed $175,000 HCAR

Property tax history

+14.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,959 · -8.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.