12221 W Bell Rd #223 · Surprise, AZ 85378

$99,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 405 sqft · Condo public records · 176 Days on market

Built 1987 Good condition $244/sqft · 19% below area Est $152k · 35% under $190/mo HOA · 17% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully recently upgraded end-unit studio condo. This light-filled unit offers added privacy with its end-unit position and features a private balcony, perfect for relaxing or enjoying Arizona evenings. The community is known for its quiet, well-maintained environment and includes the convenience of elevator access, a rare feature in similar complexes. Ideally situated near shopping, dining, and major roadways, this property offers both comfort and accessibility. Perfect for a first-time buyer or investment rental opportunity. +Easy access to Loop 303 and just a short drive to the rapidly growing North Valley tech corridor, including major semiconductor developments and employment centers.

Key facts

• Private balcony
• Elevator access
• $190 HOA

Tags

• PRIVATE BALCONY
• ELEVATOR ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $99k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $129 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.2% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Thompson Ranch Elementary (math 17% / reading 24%, grade F, #729 of 1,109 statewide, top 67%, 716 students, 74% FRL); Valley Vista High School (math 25% / reading 32%, grade F, #133 of 381 statewide, top 35%, 2,464 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools average 59% FRL vs 41% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 37% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Dysart Unified District (4243) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.5%/yr); 104 active listings in the ZIP; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $859 of equity ($684 loan paydown + $175 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 176 days — a 12% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $26k; list at $99k implies a 281% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 176 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.60%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $152,016
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: -34.88%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16501 N EL Mirage Rd #314	0.29mi	1/1.0	400 (-1%)	26mo	$92,700	$232	64
16501 N EL Mirage Rd #604	0.32mi	1/1.0	485 (+20%)	11mo	$31,500	$65	51
10950 W Union Hills Dr #1852	2.05mi	1/1.0	400 (-1%)	39mo	$74,000	$185	43
10950 W Union Hills Dr #309	2.05mi	1/1.0	455 (+12%)	36mo	$43,000	$95	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.18% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $2,897
• Equity at exit: $29,625

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $14,441
• Equity at exit: $36,320

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85378

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Rents YoY: -5.5%
• Active inventory: 104
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,139 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$20 /mo · $240/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$190
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$239
• Net cashflow: $129

Break-even live

Break-even rent $975

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $185	-5% $157	+0% $129	+5% $101	+10% $73
Rent	-10% $39	-5% $84	+0% $129	+5% $174	+10% $219
Rate	-1.0pp $179	-0.5pp $154	base $129	+0.5pp $104	+1.0pp $78

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail $190/mo · $2,280/yr condo

• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $99,000 Active 176 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $99,000 Active 175 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $99,000 Active 174 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $99,000 Active 173 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $99,000 Active 172 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $99,000 Active 171 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 170 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 169 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 168 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $99,000 Active 167 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $99,000 Active 166 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $99,000 Active 165 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $99,000 Active 164 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $99,000 Active 163 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $99,000 Active 157 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $99,000 Active 156 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 155 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 152 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $99,000 Active 151 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $99,000 Active 150 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $99,000 Active 149 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $99,000 Active 148 DOM
23. 2026-08-26
    days on market $99,000 Active 147 DOM
24. 2026-08-25
    days on market $99,000 Active 146 DOM
25. 2026-08-24
    days on market $99,000 Active 145 DOM
26. 2026-08-23
    days on market $99,000 Active 144 DOM
27. 2026-08-22
    days on market $99,000 Active 143 DOM
28. 2026-08-21
    days on market $99,000 Active 142 DOM
29. 2026-08-20
    days on market $99,000 Active 141 DOM
30. 2026-08-19
    days on market $99,000 Active 140 DOM
31. 2026-08-18
    days on market $99,000 Active 139 DOM
32. 2026-08-17
    days on market $99,000 Active 138 DOM
33. 2026-08-16
    days on market $99,000 Active 137 DOM
34. 2026-08-15
    days on market $99,000 Active 136 DOM
35. 2026-08-14
    days on market $99,000 Active 135 DOM
36. 2026-08-13
    days on market $99,000 Active 134 DOM
37. 2026-08-12
    days on market $99,000 Active 133 DOM
38. 2026-08-11
    days on market $99,000 Active 132 DOM
39. 2026-08-10
    days on market $99,000 Active 131 DOM
40. 2026-08-09
    days on market $99,000 Active 130 DOM
41. 2026-08-08
    days on market $99,000 Active 129 DOM
42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $99,000 Active 127 DOM
43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $99,000 Active 126 DOM
44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $99,000 Active 125 DOM
45. 2026-08-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 124 DOM
46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 121 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $99,000 Active 119 DOM
48. 2026-07-28
    days on market $99,000 Active 118 DOM
49. 2026-07-26
    days on market $99,000 Active 116 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $99,000 Active 114 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $240 · $20/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $653 · $54/mo
• Expected delta: +$414/yr (+$34/mo · 172.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥114°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,666
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$240
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,093
• − Management: −$1,093
• − HOA: −$2,280
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $39
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$9
• After-tax cash flow: $1,542/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $2,025–$6,075 screening

This end-unit studio condo is in good condition with recent upgrades, offering a private balcony and elevator access. It's well-suited for both investment rental and resale opportunities.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — Improves curb appeal and rental value ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and attracts more buyers ↑
• Resale Upgrading the bathroom fixtures — Modernizes the space and attracts more buyers ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 24/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Thompson Ranch Elementary F AZ #729/1,109 Nat'l #33,158/41,679 High Valley Vista High School F AZ #133/381 Nat'l #11,681/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surprise, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,979,203 people
• City population: 160,031
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 9,765
• Household income: $56,444
• Rent vs Own: 38.0% rent · 62.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 22% Arabic 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.18%
• Current HPI: 287.1228
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.53%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+303.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $105,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-03-30 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-03-17 Listed $110,000 ARMLS
• 2010-09-24 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2010-08-03 Price Changed $39,000 ARMLS
• 2008-07-21 Listed $45,000 ARMLS
• 1996-02-21 Sold (Public Records) $26,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $240 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.