4710 Fernery Ln · Lakeland, FL 33809

$350,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,510 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 68 Days on market

Built 1966 0.29 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Completely renovated duplex and quiet neighborhood. Each unit encompasses three bedrooms, one bath with one currently rented at $1500 a month. This makes an excellent investment property, or you could possibly live in one unit and rent out the other period

Key facts

• Renovated duplex
• Investment property
• One bath

Tags

• RENOVATED DUPLEX
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• THREE BEDROOMS
• ONE BATH
• INVESTMENT PROPERTY

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Property used as residential income with 2 units; Annual net income reported: $36,000; Unit 1 pro forma rent: $1,500; Unit 2 pro forma rent: $1,650
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Residential income property (duplex); Single building; Zoned C-3; Lot acreage about 1/4 to less than 1/2 acre; Facing direction not specified
• Construction: Stucco exterior; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built year not specified
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Lot dimensions approximately 150 x 85

Interior

• Kitchen: Each unit includes a kitchen
• Bedrooms: Six total bedrooms (property configured as two 3-bedroom units)
• Bathrooms: Two bathrooms (one in each unit)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen/family room combo
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $58 ($693/yr) — positive. Per door: $29/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $302k (13.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $302k (13.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: North Lakeland Elementary School of Choice (math 36% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,697 of 2,144 statewide, top 80%, 644 students, 61% FRL); Lake Gibson Middle School (math 40% / reading 39%, grade F, #373 of 571 statewide, top 66%, 1,218 students, 56% FRL); Lake Gibson Senior High School (math 16% / reading 38%, grade F, #478 of 667 statewide, top 73%, 2,080 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools at 55% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 263 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,018/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 924% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($329k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $256k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $301,800 (13.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.71%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-60,023
• Equity at exit: $52,186

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-74,873
• Equity at exit: $30,262

Cash invested: $98,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33809

• Home prices YoY: -20.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 263
• Price-to-rent: 19.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,018 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$345 /mo · $4,143/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$634
• Net cashflow: $58

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,945

Max offer price $350,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $256	-5% $157	+0% $58	+5% $-41	+10% $-140
Rent	-10% $-181	-5% $-61	+0% $58	+5% $177	+10% $296
Rate	-1.0pp $234	-0.5pp $147	base $58	+0.5pp $-33	+1.0pp $-125

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	1	$3,018
Total (2 units)			$3,018

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,500
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4940 N Socrum Loop Rd Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1950	$3,900	$2.00	25d	1	0.32mi
733 Carpenters Way #37 Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.5	1307	$1,400	$1.07	21d	1	0.65mi
4950 Deep Forest Ct Lakeland, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1047	$1,718	$1.64	4d	27	0.83mi
4048 Chelsea Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1697	$2,320	$1.37	5d	1	0.87mi
3685 Victoria Manor Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1154	$1,507	$1.31	5d	17	0.88mi
206 Mary Catherine Ct Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1254	$1,725	$1.38	25d	1	0.96mi
5817 Daughtery Downs Loop Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1609	$1,800	$1.12	16d	1	1.12mi
5817 Daughtery Downs Loop Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1609	$1,800	$1.12	25d	1	1.12mi
5818 Bambi Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1401	$2,200	$1.57	25d	1	1.18mi
907 Swann Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	3.0	1601	$1,960	$1.22	16d	1	1.18mi
5840 Sandpipers Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1732	$2,000	$1.15	16d	1	1.23mi
236 Village Crest Ct Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1142	$1,550	$1.36	15d	1	1.39mi
5227 Grace St E Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1062	$1,775	$1.67	25d	1	1.40mi
1510 Galloway Oaks Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1066	$1,376	$1.29	23d	8	1.42mi
6131 Doe Cir E Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1353	$1,700	$1.26	16d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $350,000 Active 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $350,000 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $350,000 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $350,000 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $350,000 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $350,000 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $350,000 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $350,000 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $350,000 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $350,000 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $350,000 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $350,000 Active 50 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $350,000 Active 49 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $350,000 Active 48 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $350,000 Active 47 DOM
16. 2026-04-14
    listed $350,000 Active
17. 2026-02-21
    historical
18. 2026-01-06
    price $350,000
19. 2025-10-24
    price $375,000
20. 2025-10-19
    listed $350,000 Active
21. 2023-08-28
    soldstatus $256,500
22. 2023-02-23
    soldstatus $256,500
23. 2023-01-11
    soldstatus $195,000
24. 2001-05-03
    soldstatus $65,000
25. 1996-07-01
    soldstatus $59,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,143 · $345/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,143 · $345/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,216
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$4,143
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,897
• − Management: −$2,897
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable loss: −$5,259
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,262
• After-tax cash flow: $1,955/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #3179

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeland, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 277,690
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,797
• Household income: $70,066
• Rent vs Own: 35.8% rent · 64.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 924.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 18% Black 11% Two or more races 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 1% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.46%
• Current HPI: 301.3054
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.65%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+484.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Listed $350,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-21 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $350,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $375,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-19 Listed $350,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-28 Sold (Public Records) $256,500 Public Records
• 2023-02-23 Sold (Public Records) $256,500 Public Records
• 2023-01-11 Sold (Public Records) $195,000 Public Records
• 2001-05-03 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 1996-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $59,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,143 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.