561 Arches Ln · Barboursville, VA 22923

$419,990

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,203 sqft · SingleFamily · 19 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 6,534 sqft lot Garage $191/sqft · 8% below area Est $457k · 8% under $105/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.2/15.0
• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Creekside 2-Story! An amenity rich community featuring 2 pools, clubhouse with fitness center, playground, pickleball courts, walking trails and much more! Located north of Charlottesville off Route 29, set in a peaceful scenic area with beautiful mountain views. With a Fall Delivery, this Elder floorplan offers 4 to 5 bedrooms, 2.5 bath, & 2-car garage; including the option to choose a versatile loft or convert it into an additional bedroom to suit your lifestyle needs.

Key facts

• Pickleball courts
• 2 pools
• Playground

Tags

• 2 POOLS
• CLUBHOUSE WITH FITNESS CENTER
• PLAYGROUND
• PICKLEBALL COURTS
• WALKING TRAILS
• MOUNTAIN VIEWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $420k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-291 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $378k (10.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $344k (18.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $344k (18.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Greene County Public School District (town): math 40% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #88 of 131 in VA (top 67%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ruckersville Elementary (math 54% / reading 62%, grade C+, #583 of 1,108 statewide, top 53%, 506 students, 68% FRL); William Monroe Middle (math 36% / reading 65%, grade C, #226 of 342 statewide, top 67%, 675 students, 67% FRL); William Monroe High (math 40% / reading 78%, grade C+, #256 of 319 statewide, top 81%, 957 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 32% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 239 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 62d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 204 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (34 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($118k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($414k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $343,874 (18.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.97%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $457,245
• List price: $419,990
• Delta: -8.15%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
94 Everglades Rd	0.00mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,903 (-14%)	6mo	$424,760	$223	68
140 Gunnison Dr	0.17mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,925 (-13%)	3mo	$465,000	$242	61
27 Everglades Rd	0.17mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,903 (-14%)	3mo	$416,980	$219	61
47 Everglades Rd	0.19mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,903 (-14%)	3mo	$421,480	$221	60
39 Everglades Rd	0.19mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,903 (-14%)	4mo	$418,980	$220	60
107 Everglades Rd	0.19mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,903 (-14%)	5mo	$435,310	$229	59
92 Everglades Rd	0.20mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,903 (-14%)	4mo	$419,990	$221	59
293 Trailfork Rd Lot 84	0.72mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,210 (+0%)	0mo	$439,289	$199	59
82 Everglades Rd	0.20mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,903 (-14%)	6mo	$451,815	$237	58
87 Everglades Rd	0.25mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,903 (-14%)	6mo	$438,055	$230	56
205 Trailfork Rd	0.74mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,210 (+0%)	3mo	$404,750	$183	55
215 Trailfork Rd	0.74mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,400 (+9%)	3mo	$439,780	$183	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-86,465
• Equity at exit: $62,622

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-98,672
• Equity at exit: $36,313

Cash invested: $117,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 29 active · 51 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.2 mo (14%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $424,990 ($194/sqft)
• Median days on market: 29 d
• This list price: 45% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +6.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 22923

• Home prices YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 239
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,439 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,202
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$525 /mo · $6,300/yr
• Insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$105
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$722
• Net cashflow: $-291

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,807

Max offer price $377,903

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1	-5% $-146	+0% $-291	+5% $-436	+10% $-581
Rent	-10% $-563	-5% $-427	+0% $-291	+5% $-155	+10% $-19
Rate	-1.0pp $-79	-0.5pp $-184	base $-291	+0.5pp $-400	+1.0pp $-510

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $104,998
• Closing costs: $12,600
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
92 Everglades RD Barboursville, VA	4.0	2.5	1903	$2,795	$1.47	62d	1	0.22mi
95 Terrace Greene Cir Barboursville, VA	1.0–4.0	1.0–3.5	1464	$2,950	$2.01	0d	12	0.66mi
54 Mannie Ct Barboursville, VA	4.0	2.0	1680	$2,600	$1.55	62d	1	0.79mi
100 Fir Tree Ln Barboursville, VA	4.0	2.5	2802	$2,895	$1.03	21d	1	1.18mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder-provided above-grade finished area and measurement sourceLow-VOC paint/materials and HERS Index score listed for green building verification
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly feeAssociation fee covers common area maintenance, clubhouse, fitness facility, pools, road maintenance, snow removal, and trashAssociation amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, meeting room, playground, pool, tennis courts, and trails

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces)Garage faces frontGarage door openerOff-street parkingConcrete drivewayGarage has electricity
• Security: Deadbolt locksSmoke detectorsCarbon monoxide detectorsRadon mitigation system
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerUnderground electricCable availableFiber optic available
• Home design: Detached single-family homeTwo storiesNew construction
• Construction: Poured foundation and slabStick-built constructionVinyl sidingBlown-in insulationInsulated concrete forms (ICFs)Architectural roof
• Exterior features: Landscaped lotCommunity poolSidewalksCommunity association amenities including clubhouse, fitness center, meeting room, playground, tennis courts, and trails

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric rangeDishwasherMicrowaveGarbage disposalRefrigeratorKitchen island
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the second levelAdditional bedrooms on the second level
• Flooring: CarpetLuxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: Two full bathroomsOne half bathroomMain-level bathroom included
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump for heatingHeat pump for coolingProgrammable thermostat
• Interior features: Double vanityWalk-in closet(s)Entrance foyerHome officeKitchen islandProgrammable thermostatRecessed lightingInsulated windowsLow-E windowsWindow screensTilt-in windowsEnergy-efficient appliances (ENERGY STAR)
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryerLaundry on the second level

HOA detail $105/mo · $1,260/yr

• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-07-02
   days on market $419,990 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-07-01
   days on market $419,990 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-30
   days on marketlisting id $419,990 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-30
   days on marketlisting id $419,990 Active 1 DOM
5. 2026-06-29
   days on market $419,990 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-28
   days on market $419,990 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-28
   days on market $419,990 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-27
   days on market $419,990 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-25
   days on market $419,990 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-23
    days on market $419,990 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-22
    days on market $419,990 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-19
    days on market $419,990 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-18
    days on market $419,990 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-06-17
    days on market $419,990 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-06-16
    days on market $419,990 Active 3 DOM
16. 2026-06-15
    days on market $419,990 Active 2 DOM
17. 2026-06-14
    remarks 695-char remark
18. 2026-06-14
    listed $419,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,265
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,526
• − Property taxes: −$6,300
• − Insurance: −$2,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,301
• − Management: −$3,301
• − HOA: −$1,260
• − Depreciation: −$12,218
• Taxable loss: −$10,741
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,578
• After-tax cash flow: $-912/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is move-in ready with excellent condition and modern amenities, offering a great value for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Add a smart home system — Improves convenience and adds modern appeal, enhancing both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Install smart locks — Enhances security and adds modern appeal, enhancing both resale and rental value. ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 56/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Ruckersville Elementary C+ VA #583/1,108 Nat'l #8,292/41,679 Middle William Monroe Middle C VA #226/342 Nat'l #3,367/14,009 High William Monroe High C+ VA #256/319 Nat'l #3,898/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greene County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101710
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -37.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $59,129
• Composite: 45.22/100
• National rank: #2668
• State rank: #88 of 131 in VA

Livability — Barboursville

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Orange County · 20,465 people
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• Population (ZIP): 6,435
• Household income: $118,125
• Rent vs Own: 25.2% rent · 74.8% own

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Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,465 people
• By 2030: 20,958 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 21,619 · +5.6%
• By 2050: 21,699 · +6.0%
• By 2075: 21,656 · +5.8%
• By 2100: 20,156 · -1.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Black 5% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Portuguese 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.0% · R 61.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -21.9pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+23.9 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+25.3 2008: R+21.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -11.41%
• Current HPI: 303.0348
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder-provided above-grade finished area and measurement sourceLow-VOC paint/materials and HERS Index score listed for green building verification
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly feeAssociation fee covers common area maintenance, clubhouse, fitness facility, pools, road maintenance, snow removal, and trashAssociation amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, meeting room, playground, pool, tennis courts, and trails

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces)Garage faces frontGarage door openerOff-street parkingConcrete drivewayGarage has electricity
• Security: Deadbolt locksSmoke detectorsCarbon monoxide detectorsRadon mitigation system
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerUnderground electricCable availableFiber optic available
• Home design: Detached single-family homeTwo storiesNew construction
• Construction: Poured foundation and slabStick-built constructionVinyl sidingBlown-in insulationInsulated concrete forms (ICFs)Architectural roof
• Exterior features: Landscaped lotCommunity poolSidewalksCommunity association amenities including clubhouse, fitness center, meeting room, playground, tennis courts, and trails

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric rangeDishwasherMicrowaveGarbage disposalRefrigeratorKitchen island
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the second levelAdditional bedrooms on the second level
• Flooring: CarpetLuxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: Two full bathroomsOne half bathroomMain-level bathroom included
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump for heatingHeat pump for coolingProgrammable thermostat
• Interior features: Double vanityWalk-in closet(s)Entrance foyerHome officeKitchen islandProgrammable thermostatRecessed lightingInsulated windowsLow-E windowsWindow screensTilt-in windowsEnergy-efficient appliances (ENERGY STAR)
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryerLaundry on the second level

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-07-02 Listing Removed — CAAR
• 2026-06-13 Listed $419,990 CAAR