4544 Elmbank Ave · St. Louis, MO 63115

$120,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,014 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 91 Days on market

Built 1955 5,536 sqft lot $118/sqft · 258% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Appreciation +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move-in ready and easy to care for! This charming brick home features nice updates throughout, a comfortable layout and spacious bedrooms with plenty of room to relax. The newer roof and windows add value and peace of mind. Enjoy the convenience of a parking pad in the back. A great opportunity for a first-time homebuyer or owner-occupant, with strong potential for investors as well. Conveniently located with easy access to everything St. Louis has to offer. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• 5,536 sq ft lot
• Built 1955
• Listed 90 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $142 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $108k (9.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $108k (9.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 5.0% in St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Louis City (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #312 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Nahed Chapman New American Aca (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #1,099 of 1,115 statewide, top 100%, 335 students, 99% FRL); Gateway Middle (math 0% / reading 8%, grade F, #389 of 391 statewide, top 100%, 506 students, 99% FRL); Sumner High (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #520 of 521 statewide, top 100%, 264 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 80% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 99 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 294 units permitted in St. Louis city in 2024 (227 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($31k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Louis County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $17k; list at $120k implies a 598% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,372 (9.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.07%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $33,503
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: 258.18%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4610 Lexington Ave	0.16mi	3/1.5	945 (-7%)	8mo	$35,000	$37	73
4729 Margaretta Ave	0.51mi	2/1.0 (-1)	982 (-3%)	2mo	$9,900	$10	64
4501 San Francisco Ave	0.36mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,066 (+5%)	8mo	$150,000	$141	61
4610 Penrose St	0.67mi	3/1.5	1,053 (+4%)	3mo	$80,000	$76	58
3114 Clarence Ave	0.41mi	3/1.0	925 (-9%)	10mo	$39,900	$43	58
4650 Saint Louis Ave	0.25mi	2/1.0 (-1)	902 (-11%)	10mo	$20,000	$22	56
4275 E Ashland Ave	0.57mi	2/1.0 (-1)	938 (-8%)	2mo	$99,900	$107	54
4607 Lee Ave	0.62mi	3/1.5	912 (-10%)	4mo	$25,000	$27	49
4859 Sacramento Ave	0.53mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,104 (+9%)	11mo	$54,900	$50	47
4844 Northland Ave	0.56mi	3/1.0	1,128 (+11%)	10mo	$58,500	$52	46
4853 Lee Ave	0.75mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,092 (+8%)	3mo	$29,900	$27	45
4547 Bessie Ave	0.75mi	2/1.0 (-1)	906 (-11%)	4mo	$39,500	$44	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-10,464
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $2,302
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63115

• Home prices YoY: -2.6%
• Active inventory: 99
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,084 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $420/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$228
• Net cashflow: $142

Break-even live

Break-even rent $904

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $210	-5% $176	+0% $142	+5% $108	+10% $74
Rent	-10% $56	-5% $99	+0% $142	+5% $185	+10% $227
Rate	-1.0pp $202	-0.5pp $172	base $142	+0.5pp $111	+1.0pp $79

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4627 Maffitt Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	704	$795	$1.13	45d	1	0.30mi
4642 Farlin Ave Unit 1F St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1056	$800	$0.76	45d	1	0.46mi
4378 Cottage Ave St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	950	$924	$0.97	0d	5	0.54mi
4040 Shreve Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1201	$1,250	$1.04	45d	1	0.56mi
4497 Lee Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1012	$1,000	$0.99	18d	1	0.61mi
4493 Bessie Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	880	$1,250	$1.42	45d	1	0.73mi
2603 Belle Glade Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	945	$800	$0.85	6d	1	0.87mi
4223 Red Bud Ave Unit 1F St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1167	$895	$0.77	45d	1	0.90mi
4847 Calvin Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,473	$1.47	3d	1	0.92mi
1708 Annie Malone Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	924	$1,500	$1.62	45d	1	0.95mi
1232 N Euclid Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	982	$1,395	$1.42	45d	1	1.14mi
2831 Abner Pl Unit 7 St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	968	$1,250	$1.29	25d	1	1.22mi
4919 Thekla Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	931	$700	$0.75	45d	1	1.26mi
5333 Patton Ave St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1262	$1,250	$0.99	45d	1	1.32mi
763 Walton Ave Unit 763 St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,100	$1.00	45d	1	1.36mi
1965 Arlington Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	980	$1,300	$1.33	6d	1	1.37mi
1420 Union Blvd Unit 2F St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1096	$995	$0.91	45d	1	1.45mi
4400 Delmar Blvd St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1450	$1,600	$1.10	45d	1	1.46mi
5345 Wells Ave Unit 2ND St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1127	$1,095	$0.97	25d	1	1.49mi
5203 Page Blvd Unit 5201 1st Floor St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1000	$750	$0.75	16d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $120,000 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 88 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 87 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 86 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 85 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 83 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 79 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 78 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 77 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $120,000 Active 74 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 73 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 72 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    price $120,000 Active 71 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 71 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 70 DOM
16. 2026-03-23
    listed $125,000 Active 491-char remark

    Show marketing remark (491 chars)

    Move-in ready and easy to care for! This charming brick home features nice updates throughout, a comfortable layout and spacious bedrooms with plenty of room to relax. The newer roof and windows add value and peace of mind. Enjoy the convenience of a parking pad in the back. A great opportunity for a first-time homebuyer or owner-occupant, with strong potential for investors as well. Conveniently located with easy access to everything St. Louis has to offer. Schedule your showing today!

17. 2026-03-16
    historical $125,000 491-char remark

    Show marketing remark (491 chars)

    Move-in ready and easy to care for! This charming brick home features nice updates throughout, a comfortable layout and spacious bedrooms with plenty of room to relax. The newer roof and windows add value and peace of mind. Enjoy the convenience of a parking pad in the back. A great opportunity for a first-time homebuyer or owner-occupant, with strong potential for investors as well. Conveniently located with easy access to everything St. Louis has to offer. Schedule your showing today!

18. 2010-12-22
    soldstatus
19. 2007-04-23
    soldstatus $17,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $420 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,164 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: +$744/yr (+$62/mo · 177.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,005
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$420
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,040
• − Management: −$1,040
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable loss: −$309
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$74
• After-tax cash flow: $1,776/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Louis City
• NCES district ID: 2929280
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,685
• Composite: 11.54/100
• National rank: #9699
• State rank: #312 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Louis

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Louis, MO
• County: Saint Louis City · 254,015 people
• City population: 283,259
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 14,488
• Household income: $30,622
• Rent vs Own: 57.7% rent · 42.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1655.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,737 people
• By 2030: 313,865 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 305,439 · -3.3%
• By 2050: 296,529 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 271,028 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 255,359 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 95% White 2% Two or more races 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.7) · D 81.4% · R 16.7% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.5pp toward R · 2008: 68.2pp · 2024: 64.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.7 2020: D+66.2 2016: D+63.7 2012: D+66.6 2008: D+68.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.42%
• Current HPI: 127.3403
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+626.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Listed $125,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-16 Coming Soon $125,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-12-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-04-23 Sold (Public Records) $17,200 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $420 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.