10383 Larkin #43 · Live Oak, CA 95953

$61,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 282 Days on market

Built 1970 Fair condition $42/sqft · 41% below area Est $103k · 41% under ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

55 and older senior mobile home park awaits you! with a little elbow grease this 2 bedroom 2 bathroom mobile home could shine. Separate living and family rooms, formal dining room, central heat and air, dishwasher, gas stove top, double oven, covered patio, covered one car parking off street with a shed. Community features a pool and clubhouse! Buyer must qualify with the park. Owner financing possible!

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Central heat and air
• Dishwasher

Tags

• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• CENTRAL HEAT AND AIR
• DISHWASHER
• GAS STOVE TOP
• DOUBLE OVEN
• COVERED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $61k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $61k).
• Recommended offer: $54k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 28.5% vs local median 2.8% in Live Oak — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#197 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, amenities A, commute A; Watch: employment C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Live Oak Unified (town): math 39% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #569 of 1,400 in CA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 73 units permitted in Sutter County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $422 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sutter County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 282 days — a 12% lower offer ($54k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $53,680 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 282 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 79.39%
• DSCR: 4.53
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $103,447
• List price: $61,000
• Delta: -41.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10383 Larkin Rd #15	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	2mo	$84,999	$63	86
10383 Larkin Rd #19	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	15mo	$125,000	$93	76
10383 Larkin Rd #50	0.02mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-7%)	9mo	$105,000	$78	75

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 79.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.64×
• Total profit: $62,116
• Equity at exit: $9,095

10-year hold

• IRR: 83.0%
• Equity multiple: 9.60×
• Total profit: $146,884
• Equity at exit: $5,274

Cash invested: $17,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95953

• Home prices YoY: -18.6%
• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,964 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$320
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$76 /mo · $915/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $1,130

Break-even live

Break-even rent $534

Max offer price $61,000

Occupancy floor 37%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,250
• Closing costs: $1,830
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $61,000 Active 282 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $61,000 Active 281 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $61,000 Active 280 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $61,000 Active 279 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $61,000 Active 278 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $61,000 Active 276 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $61,000 Active 275 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $61,000 Active 273 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $61,000 Active 272 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $61,000 Active 271 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $61,000 Active 270 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $61,000 Active 267 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $61,000 Active 266 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $61,000 Active 265 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $61,000 Active 264 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $61,000 Active 263 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $61,000 Active 262 DOM
18. 2026-03-03
    price $61,000 406-char remark

    Show marketing remark (406 chars)

    55 and older senior mobile home park awaits you! with a little elbow grease this 2 bedroom 2 bathroom mobile home could shine. Separate living and family rooms, formal dining room, central heat and air, dishwasher, gas stove top, double oven, covered patio, covered one car parking off street with a shed. Community features a pool and clubhouse! Buyer must qualify with the park. Owner financing possible!

19. 2025-10-15
    price $71,000 406-char remark

    Show marketing remark (406 chars)

    55 and older senior mobile home park awaits you! with a little elbow grease this 2 bedroom 2 bathroom mobile home could shine. Separate living and family rooms, formal dining room, central heat and air, dishwasher, gas stove top, double oven, covered patio, covered one car parking off street with a shed. Community features a pool and clubhouse! Buyer must qualify with the park. Owner financing possible!

20. 2025-09-10
    listed $79,000 Active 406-char remark

    Show marketing remark (406 chars)

    55 and older senior mobile home park awaits you! with a little elbow grease this 2 bedroom 2 bathroom mobile home could shine. Separate living and family rooms, formal dining room, central heat and air, dishwasher, gas stove top, double oven, covered patio, covered one car parking off street with a shed. Community features a pool and clubhouse! Buyer must qualify with the park. Owner financing possible!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,568
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,417
• − Property taxes: −$915
• − Insurance: −$305
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,885
• − Management: −$1,885
• − Depreciation: −$1,775
• Taxable income: $13,386
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,213
• After-tax cash flow: $10,348/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This mobile home requires moderate renovations to improve its condition and increase its value. Exterior siding, kitchen, bathrooms, flooring, and interior paint all need attention.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Severe weathering and peeling
• Major kitchen cabinets — Old and outdated
• Major bathroom fixtures — Outdated and worn-out
• Major flooring — Worn-out carpet
• Major interior paint — Peeling paint

Value-add opportunities

• Both New exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Kitchen renovation — Modernizes space and increases value
• Both Bathroom renovation — Modernizes space and increases value
• Both Flooring replacement — Enhances comfort and value
• Both Interior paint job — Enhances appearance and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Severe weathering and peeling	Major	$15,000–50,000
kitchen cabinets · Old and outdated	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom fixtures · Outdated and worn-out	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Worn-out carpet	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior paint · Peeling paint	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$75,000–250,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both New exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Kitchen renovation — Modernizes space and increases value ↑
• Both Bathroom renovation — Modernizes space and increases value ↑
• Both Flooring replacement — Enhances comfort and value ↑
• Both Interior paint job — Enhances appearance and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Live Oak Unified
• NCES district ID: 0622050
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $46,813
• Composite: 40.92/100
• National rank: #7511
• State rank: #569 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Live Oak

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #197
• US rank: #6366

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing F Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Live Oak, CA
• City population: 36,047
• Population (ZIP): 10,945

Population outlook (Sutter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,244 people
• By 2030: 97,170 · -0.1%
• By 2040: 96,137 · -1.1%
• By 2050: 93,604 · -3.7%
• By 2075: 85,008 · -12.6%
• By 2100: 71,584 · -26.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% White 37% Two or more races 16% Asian 16% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 13% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sutter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.1% · R 64.5% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.7pp toward R · 2008: -16.7pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+16.4 2016: R+16.3 2012: R+21.8 2008: R+16.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.98%
• Current HPI: 265.9488
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-22.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $61,000 CRMLS
• 2025-10-15 Price Changed $71,000 CRMLS
• 2025-09-10 Listed $79,000 CRMLS