301 N Budweiser Cir · Payson, AZ 85541

$299,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Manufactured public records · 489 Days on market

Built 2000 0.29 ac lot $195/sqft · 13% above area Est $307k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• ARV discount +8.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fully remodeled Home. New flooring, countertops, paint, ceilings, 3 bedroom, 2 bath, laundry, interior storage room, workshop, new exterior storage shed, enclosed front porch, open floorplan with kitchen, dining and greatroom. Nice 1/3 acre lot on a cul-de-sac. RV Power Hook up. 7/24/25 Competitve Market Analysis Value of $378,338 for similar type manufactured home properties within 2 miles

Key facts

• 0.29 acre lot
• Built 2000
• Listed 489 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $54 ($646/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (23.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $229k (23.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.3% in Payson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#44 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A, crime B, cost of living B; Watch: schools C-, amenities D-, commute F.
• Payson Unified District (4209) (town): math 20% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #138 of 249 in AZ (top 55%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 695 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 217 units permitted in Gila County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gila County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 489 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $135k; list at $300k implies a 122% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $229,273 (23.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 489 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.77%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $306,781
• List price: $299,900
• Delta: -2.24%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
500 E Lorene St	0.33mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (0%)	8mo	$304,500	$198	73
209 N Manzanita Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+2%)	10mo	$314,000	$200	70
608 N Manzanita Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-5%)	12mo	$356,000	$245	56
800 N Granite Dr	0.51mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (-5%)	9mo	$305,000	$209	55
601 E Bonita St	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,624 (+6%)	7mo	$395,000	$243	54
311 S Clark Rd	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+9%)	1mo	$334,000	$199	52
604 E Bonita St	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,369 (-11%)	4mo	$320,000	$234	50
413 E Idle Cir	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-6%)	4mo	$195,000	$135	48
413 E Idle Cir	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-6%)	4mo	$195,000	$135	48
410 E Alpine Dr	0.70mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,392 (-9%)	5mo	$280,000	$201	42
608 E Wade Ln	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,391 (-9%)	5mo	$345,000	$248	41
908 N Matterhorn Rd	0.64mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,320 (-14%)	2mo	$250,000	$189	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-45,327
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-35,702
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85541

• Home prices YoY: -6.6%
• Active inventory: 695
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,293 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$60 /mo · $717/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$481
• Net cashflow: $54

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,225

Max offer price $299,900

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
905 N Beeline Hwy Payson, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1350	$1,850	$1.37	43d	2	0.84mi
605 N Spur Dr Payson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1800	$2,400	$1.33	43d	1	0.96mi
605 N Spur Dr Unit B Payson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1800	$2,400	$1.33	43d	1	0.96mi
333 N McLane Rd Payson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1205	$2,080	$1.73	13d	2	1.20mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $299,900 Active 489 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,900 Active 488 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,900 Active 487 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,900 Active 486 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,900 Active 485 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,900 Active 483 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $299,900 Active 482 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,900 Active 479 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,900 Active 478 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,900 Active 477 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,900 Active 473 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,900 Active 472 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,900 Active 471 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,900 Active 470 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,900 Active 469 DOM
16. 2026-05-08
    price $299,900 393-char remark

    Show marketing remark (393 chars)

    Fully remodeled Home. New flooring, countertops, paint, ceilings, 3 bedroom, 2 bath, laundry, interior storage room, workshop, new exterior storage shed, enclosed front porch, open floorplan with kitchen, dining and greatroom. Nice 1/3 acre lot on a cul-de-sac. RV Power Hook up. 7/24/25 Competitve Market Analysis Value of $378,338 for similar type manufactured home properties within 2 miles

17. 2026-05-07
    status Active 393-char remark

    Show marketing remark (393 chars)

    Fully remodeled Home. New flooring, countertops, paint, ceilings, 3 bedroom, 2 bath, laundry, interior storage room, workshop, new exterior storage shed, enclosed front porch, open floorplan with kitchen, dining and greatroom. Nice 1/3 acre lot on a cul-de-sac. RV Power Hook up. 7/24/25 Competitve Market Analysis Value of $378,338 for similar type manufactured home properties within 2 miles

18. 2026-02-20
    price $299,900 408-char remark

    Show marketing remark (408 chars)

    Fully remodeled Home. New flooring, countertops, paint, ceilings, 3 bedroom, 2 baths, laundry, interior storage room, workshop, new exterior storage shed, enclosed front porch, open floorplan with kitchen, dining and greatroom. Nice 1/3 acre lot on a cul-de-sac. Open to property trade. 7/24/25 Competitve Market Analysis Value of $378,338 for similar properties within 2 miles. Adding two (2) HVAC units.

19. 2026-02-14
    historical 393-char remark

    Show marketing remark (393 chars)

    Fully remodeled Home. New flooring, countertops, paint, ceilings, 3 bedroom, 2 bath, laundry, interior storage room, workshop, new exterior storage shed, enclosed front porch, open floorplan with kitchen, dining and greatroom. Nice 1/3 acre lot on a cul-de-sac. RV Power Hook up. 7/24/25 Competitve Market Analysis Value of $378,338 for similar type manufactured home properties within 2 miles

20. 2025-12-19
    price $309,900 408-char remark

    Show marketing remark (393 chars)

    Fully remodeled Home. New flooring, countertops, paint, ceilings, 3 bedroom, 2 bath, laundry, interior storage room, workshop, new exterior storage shed, enclosed front porch, open floorplan with kitchen, dining and greatroom. Nice 1/3 acre lot on a cul-de-sac. RV Power Hook up. 7/24/25 Competitve Market Analysis Value of $378,338 for similar type manufactured home properties within 2 miles

21. 2025-12-19
    listed $309,900 Active 393-char remark

    Show marketing remark (393 chars)

    Fully remodeled Home. New flooring, countertops, paint, ceilings, 3 bedroom, 2 bath, laundry, interior storage room, workshop, new exterior storage shed, enclosed front porch, open floorplan with kitchen, dining and greatroom. Nice 1/3 acre lot on a cul-de-sac. RV Power Hook up. 7/24/25 Competitve Market Analysis Value of $378,338 for similar type manufactured home properties within 2 miles

22. 2025-08-12
    price $319,900 408-char remark

    Show marketing remark (408 chars)

    Fully remodeled Home. New flooring, countertops, paint, ceilings, 3 bedroom, 2 baths, laundry, interior storage room, workshop, new exterior storage shed, enclosed front porch, open floorplan with kitchen, dining and greatroom. Nice 1/3 acre lot on a cul-de-sac. Open to property trade. 7/24/25 Competitve Market Analysis Value of $378,338 for similar properties within 2 miles. Adding two (2) HVAC units.

23. 2025-02-15
    listed $324,900 Active 408-char remark

    Show marketing remark (408 chars)

    Fully remodeled Home. New flooring, countertops, paint, ceilings, 3 bedroom, 2 baths, laundry, interior storage room, workshop, new exterior storage shed, enclosed front porch, open floorplan with kitchen, dining and greatroom. Nice 1/3 acre lot on a cul-de-sac. Open to property trade. 7/24/25 Competitve Market Analysis Value of $378,338 for similar properties within 2 miles. Adding two (2) HVAC units.

24. 2023-11-15
    soldstatus $135,000
25. 1991-09-03
    soldstatus $43,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $717 · $60/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,979 · $165/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,262/yr (+$105/mo · 176.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,513
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$717
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,201
• − Management: −$2,201
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$4,629
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,111
• After-tax cash flow: $1,757/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Payson Unified District (4209)
• NCES district ID: 0406070
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $41,440
• Composite: 22.03/100
• National rank: #8200
• State rank: #138 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Payson

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #44
• US rank: #8740

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B Crime B Employment B- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Payson, AZ
• County: Gila County · 23,382 people
• City population: 23,382
• Metro: Payson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 23,382
• Household income: $66,383
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 523.0

Population outlook (Gila County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,229 people
• By 2030: 48,202 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 44,101 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 41,041 · -18.3%
• By 2075: 37,536 · -25.3%
• By 2100: 32,485 · -35.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gila

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.8% · R 68.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.8pp toward R · 2008: -27.8pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+32.4 2012: R+26.4 2008: R+27.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.4005
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Payson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+597.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $299,900 CAAR
• 2026-05-07 Relisted — CAAR
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $299,900 ARMLS
• 2026-02-14 Delisted — CAAR
• 2025-12-19 Price Changed $309,900 ARMLS
• 2025-12-19 Listed $309,900 CAAR
• 2025-08-12 Price Changed $319,900 ARMLS
• 2025-02-15 Listed $324,900 ARMLS
• 2023-11-15 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 1991-09-03 Sold (Public Records) $43,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $717 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.