424 20th Ave · San Francisco, CA 94121

$2,800,000

12 bd · 8.0 ba · 5,996 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1972 4,500 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 6 units. confirmed

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks

424 20th Avenue is a well-maintained six unit building in the Richmond District. The property consists of two 3bd/2ba, two 2bd/1.5ba, two 1bd/1ba, and garage parking for seven cars. Both of the 3bd/2ba units feature a gas fireplace, spacious rooms, and great natural light. One of these units will be delivered vacant, providing a great owner's unit or the ability to achieve market rent. The units are separately metered for gas and electricity, and each has their own furnace, keeping operating expenses low. The main electrical indicates 400 Amps of service and all of the subpanels in the apartments were recently replaced. This is an excellent opportunity to acquire a turn-key building with gr

Key facts

• Great natural light
• Gas fireplace
• 400 amps of service

Tags

• GAS FIREPLACE
• GREAT NATURAL LIGHT
• SEPARATELY METERED
• OWN FURNACE
• 400 AMPS OF SERVICE
• RECENTLY REPLACED SUBPANELS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Units are not furnished
• Financial info: 6 total units (5 leased, 1 vacant)
• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Garage parking available; Total of 7 parking spaces
• Home design: Multi-family residential income building (5+ units); Built in 1972
• Construction: Building area approximately 5,996 square feet
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 4,500 sq ft

Interior

• Bedrooms: 12 total bedrooms across units
• Interior features: Residential income property configured as multi-family

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2×3bd/2ba + 2×2bd/1.5ba + 2×1bd/1ba units multifamily listed at $2.80M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($44k/yr) — positive. Per door: $617/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.58M (8.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $2.58M (8.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lilienthal (Claire) Elementary (669 students, 19% FRL); Giannini (A.P.) Middle (1,192 students, 34% FRL); Lowell High (2,632 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 30% FRL vs 49% district-wide (19 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+13.0%/yr); 76 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $25,769/mo this rent would consume 232% of the median local household income ($133k/yr) (locally 2072% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $19k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $84k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $784k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($2.76M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $2,576,900 (8.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.67%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-82,948
• Equity at exit: $417,489

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $846,148
• Equity at exit: $242,093

Cash invested: $784,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City San Francisco: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+57

SF Rent Ordinance + Eviction Protections; relocation $10k+; one of strictest in US.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94121

• Rents YoY: 13.0%
• Active inventory: 76
• Price-to-rent: 49.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $25,769 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$14,684
• Tax from tax record: −$804 /mo · $9,650/yr
• Insurance: −$1,167
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,411
• Net cashflow: $3,703

Break-even live

Break-even rent $21,081

Max offer price $2,800,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $5,288	-5% $4,496	+0% $3,703	+5% $2,911	+10% $2,118
Rent	-10% $1,667	-5% $2,685	+0% $3,703	+5% $4,721	+10% $5,739
Rate	-1.0pp $5,113	-0.5pp $4,415	base $3,703	+0.5pp $2,978	+1.0pp $2,239

6-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	2	$9,396
▸ 2× units	2	1.5	$8,432
▸ 2× units	1	1	$7,942
Total (6 units)			$25,769

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $700,000
• Closing costs: $84,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $2,800,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $2,800,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $2,800,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $2,800,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $2,800,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $2,800,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $2,800,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $2,800,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $2,800,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $2,800,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,650 · $804/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $21,280 · $1,773/mo
• Expected delta: +$11,630/yr (+$969/mo · 120.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥77°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $309,228
• − Mortgage interest: −$156,844
• − Property taxes: −$9,650
• − Insurance: −$14,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$24,738
• − Management: −$24,738
• − Depreciation: −$81,455
• Taxable loss: −$2,197
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$527
• After-tax cash flow: $44,965/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Francisco Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634410
• Math proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $81,249
• Composite: 50.14/100
• National rank: #4088
• State rank: #322 of 1400 in CA

Livability — San Francisco

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3143

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Francisco, CA
• County: San Francisco County · 827,552 people
• City population: 827,552
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 41,995
• Household income: $133,358
• Rent vs Own: 56.1% rent · 43.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2072.0

Population outlook (San Francisco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,030,936 people
• By 2030: 1,110,409 · +7.7%
• By 2040: 1,270,010 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 1,435,001 · +39.2%
• By 2075: 1,779,074 · +72.6%
• By 2100: 1,966,767 · +90.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 42% White 41% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 35% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Chinese 22% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · San Francisco

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.8) · D 80.3% · R 15.5% · Other 4.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.7pp toward R · 2008: 70.5pp · 2024: 64.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.8 2020: D+72.5 2016: D+76.1 2012: D+70.2 2008: D+70.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1078.57%
• Current HPI: 266.5786
• Rent YoY: ▲ 13.03%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $2,800,000 San Francisco MLS

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,650 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.