1510 Carson Dr · Mesquite, TX 75149

$144,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 924 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1969 7,492 sqft lot Est $154k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Calling all investors, flippers, and buyers looking to build equity! This fixer-upper offers a great opportunity to transform a property into your vision. Situated on a generously sized lot in an established Mesquite neighborhood, this home features endless potential for renovation, updates, or investment purposes. Conveniently located near schools, shopping, dining, and major highways for an easy commute throughout the Dallas-Fort Worth area. Whether you're searching for your next project or a property with room to add value, this home is ready for its next chapter. Property is being sold as-is.

Key facts

• Generously sized lot
• 7,492 sq ft lot
• Garage

Tags

• GENEROUSLY SIZED LOT
• ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot: Less than 0.5 acre; Lot features: Other; Subdivision: Edgemont Park; County: Dallas; GPS-friendly directions
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash or Conventional; Treat as clear loan type; No second mortgage
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Converted garage; Has garage (attached); No covered or carport spaces listed
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Municipal utility district: No
• Home design: Single-family residential property; One story; Built in 1969; Not attached to other properties
• Construction: Slab foundation; Preowned
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; No fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Appliances: Other
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms total; Primary bedroom on level 1
• Flooring: Combination flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom (total 2 bathrooms)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fan(s); Wall/window unit(s)
• Interior features: Cable TV available; High-speed internet available; One living area; One dining area; Total of 3 rooms; One level
• Laundry & utility: Laundry: Other

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-8 ($-94/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $144k (1.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $144k (1.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.4% in Mesquite — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#358 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime F, commute F.
• Mesquite ISD (suburban): math 35% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #536 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mcwhorter El (math 40% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,709 of 4,322 statewide, top 40%, 516 students, 93% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 63% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 340 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $143,521 (1.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.23%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $154,308
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1229 Greenbrier Dr	0.16mi	3/1.0 (+1)	912 (-1%)	3mo	$179,000	$196	80
1519 Briarwood Dr	0.11mi	3/1.0 (+1)	930 (+1%)	10mo	$199,000	$214	79
2452 Lindale Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	922 (-0%)	12mo	$225,000	$244	73
1433 Melanie Ln	0.03mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,030 (+12%)	8mo	$215,000	$209	68
2021 Avis Cir	0.41mi	3/1.0 (+1)	985 (+7%)	0mo	$149,900	$152	62
1325 Woodcrest Dr	0.56mi	3/1.0 (+1)	946 (+2%)	1mo	$130,000	$137	62
1837 Grove Cir	0.49mi	3/1.0 (+1)	957 (+4%)	3mo	$125,000	$131	61
1817 Grove Cir	0.46mi	3/1.0 (+1)	957 (+4%)	8mo	$138,000	$144	59
3005 Sherry Ln	0.59mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (-6%)	3mo	$125,000	$145	52
1825 Grove Cir	0.46mi	3/1.0 (+1)	969 (+5%)	14mo	$149,999	$155	52
1634 Evergreen Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,020 (+10%)	8mo	$169,900	$167	36
3109 Forestdale Ln	0.75mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,044 (+13%)	6mo	$215,000	$206	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-27,941
• Equity at exit: $21,605

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-40,330
• Equity at exit: $12,528

Cash invested: $40,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75149

• Home prices YoY: -27.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 340
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,510 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$380 /mo · $4,563/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $-8

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,520

Max offer price $143,521

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,225
• Closing costs: $4,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2045 Avis Cir Mesquite, TX	3.0	1.0	912	$1,600	$1.75	24d	1	0.33mi
2005 Mount Pleasant Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	1.0	939	$1,545	$1.65	7d	1	0.33mi
12227 Quail Dr Balch Springs, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	729	$1,200	$1.65	15d	1	0.71mi
11405 S Blossom Cir Balch Springs, TX	2.0	1.0	920	$1,500	$1.63	1d	1	0.81mi
3212 Balch Springs Rd Balch Springs, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	825	$1,245	$1.51	7d	1	0.94mi
2255 W Bruton Rd Mesquite, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	957	$1,568	$1.64	43d	12	1.20mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $144,900 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $144,900 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 603-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $149,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,563 · $380/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,563 · $380/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,117
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,117
• − Property taxes: −$4,563
• − Insurance: −$724
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,449
• − Management: −$1,449
• − Depreciation: −$4,215
• Taxable loss: −$2,401
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$576
• After-tax cash flow: $483/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mesquite ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830390
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $49,372
• Composite: 29.06/100
• National rank: #6606
• State rank: #536 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mesquite

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #358
• US rank: #7743

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mesquite, TX
• County: Dallas County · 2,612,404 people
• City population: 150,788
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 58,262
• Household income: $70,774
• Rent vs Own: 33.2% rent · 66.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2266.0

Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,979,839 people
• By 2030: 3,191,823 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 3,619,611 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 4,026,915 · +35.1%
• By 2075: 4,957,073 · +66.4%
• By 2100: 5,508,725 · +84.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 25% Two or more races 21% Black 20% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Iranian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 39% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.2) · D 60.2% · R 38.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: 22.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.2 2020: D+31.6 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+15.4 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -130.12%
• Current HPI: 345.6606
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.22%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $149,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,563 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.