8848 Timber Dr · Denham Springs, LA 70726

$179,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,586 sqft · SingleFamily · 44 Days on market

Built 1989 0.31 ac lot $113/sqft · 10% below area Est $199k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.5/30.0
• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in Denham Springs, this 4-bed, 2-bath home is a turnkey gem ready for its next owner. Step into a functional floor plan that balances comfort and style effortlessly. The interior stays perfectly climate-controlled with a newer HVAC system and a reliable water heater, ensuring peace of mind for years to come. The exterior is equally impressive, featuring a durable roof and a full privacy fence that creates your own personal backyard retreat.

Key facts

• Turnkey gem
• Full privacy fence
• Durable roof

Tags

• TURNKEY GEM
• FUNCTIONAL FLOOR PLAN
• NEWER HVAC SYSTEM
• RELIABLE WATER HEATER
• DURABLE ROOF
• FULL PRIVACY FENCE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Two parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-story; Concrete construction
• Construction: Concrete construction
• Exterior features: City lot

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Total of 7 rooms; Average condition

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-122 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $158k (12.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 4.0% in Denham Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#29 in LA, #4,939 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Livingston Parish (suburban): math 40% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #13 of 98 in LA (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 985 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 794 units permitted in Livingston Parish in 2024 (99 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Livingston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $180k implies a 260% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,283 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.25%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $199,231
• List price: $179,900
• Delta: -9.70%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8752 Leisure Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,614 (+2%)	8mo	$210,000	$130	76
8747 Leisure Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-9%)	16mo	$190,000	$132	58
25849 Shadow Brook Ave	0.52mi	4/2.0	1,635 (+3%)	15mo	$185,900	$114	58
25894 Shadow Brook Ave	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,418 (-11%)	0mo	$194,900	$137	56
26088 Vincent Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,695 (+7%)	4mo	$380,000	$224	55
26006 La Hwy 16	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,477 (-7%)	7mo	$220,000	$149	55
9087 Shadow Bluff Ave	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,361 (-14%)	3mo	$192,500	$141	51
8651 Shadow Spring Blvd	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,426 (-10%)	11mo	$104,900	$74	51
9119 Shadow Bluff Ave	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,403 (-12%)	10mo	$195,000	$139	49
26072 Fallen Oaks Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,799 (+13%)	14mo	$190,000	$106	44
25977 Shadow Brook Ave	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,353 (-15%)	12mo	$195,000	$144	40
25921 Shadow Brook Ave	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,353 (-15%)	19mo	$197,800	$146	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.83% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-35,153
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-33,195
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70726

• Rents YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 985
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,848 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$137 /mo · $1,646/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $-122

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,003

Max offer price $158,283

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-21	-5% $-71	+0% $-122	+5% $-173	+10% $-224
Rent	-10% $-268	-5% $-195	+0% $-122	+5% $-49	+10% $24
Rate	-1.0pp $-32	-0.5pp $-77	base $-122	+0.5pp $-169	+1.0pp $-216

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9133 Shadow Bluff Ave Denham Springs, LA	4.0	2.0	1808	$1,950	$1.08	45d	1	0.40mi
25842 Shadow Brook Ave Denham Springs, LA	4.0	2.0	1790	$1,750	$0.98	23d	1	0.50mi
8275 Vincent Rd Denham Springs, LA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	958	$1,495	$1.56	16d	20	0.67mi
155 Aspen Sq #30 Denham Springs, LA	3.0	2.0	1234	$1,375	$1.11	45d	1	0.86mi
153 Aspen Sq Denham Springs, LA	3.0	2.0	1236	$1,295	$1.05	45d	1	0.89mi
8708 Montclair St Denham Springs, LA	3.0	2.0	1184	$1,600	$1.35	23d	1	0.94mi
25397 Lake Providence Dr Denham Springs, LA	3.0	2.0	1732	$1,900	$1.10	16d	1	1.25mi
9587 S Creek Dr Denham Springs, LA	4.0	3.0	2069	$2,400	$1.16	25d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $179,900 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,900 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,900 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,900 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,900 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $179,900 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,900 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $179,900 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,900 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $179,900 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,900 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,900 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,900 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    pricedays on market $179,900 Active 24 DOM

    Show marketing remark (452 chars)

    Located in Denham Springs, this 4-bed, 2-bath home is a turnkey gem ready for its next owner. Step into a functional floor plan that balances comfort and style effortlessly. The interior stays perfectly climate-controlled with a newer HVAC system and a reliable water heater, ensuring peace of mind for years to come. The exterior is equally impressive, featuring a durable roof and a full privacy fence that creates your own personal backyard retreat.

15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,900 Active 23 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,900 Active 22 DOM
17. 2026-05-08
    listed $189,900 Active 452-char remark

    Show marketing remark (452 chars)

    Located in Denham Springs, this 4-bed, 2-bath home is a turnkey gem ready for its next owner. Step into a functional floor plan that balances comfort and style effortlessly. The interior stays perfectly climate-controlled with a newer HVAC system and a reliable water heater, ensuring peace of mind for years to come. The exterior is equally impressive, featuring a durable roof and a full privacy fence that creates your own personal backyard retreat.

18. 2026-05-08
    listed $189,900 Active 452-char remark

    Show marketing remark (452 chars)

    Located in Denham Springs, this 4-bed, 2-bath home is a turnkey gem ready for its next owner. Step into a functional floor plan that balances comfort and style effortlessly. The interior stays perfectly climate-controlled with a newer HVAC system and a reliable water heater, ensuring peace of mind for years to come. The exterior is equally impressive, featuring a durable roof and a full privacy fence that creates your own personal backyard retreat.

19. 2017-11-10
    soldstatus Sold

    Show marketing remark (170 chars)

    Great home for either the first time home buyer or investor. Home flooded but is 85% complete. Home is located close to schools, shopping, restaurants, theaters and parks

20. 2017-10-06
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (170 chars)

    Great home for either the first time home buyer or investor. Home flooded but is 85% complete. Home is located close to schools, shopping, restaurants, theaters and parks

21. 2017-09-14
    listed $90,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (170 chars)

    Great home for either the first time home buyer or investor. Home flooded but is 85% complete. Home is located close to schools, shopping, restaurants, theaters and parks

22. 2017-09-13
    listed $90,000
23. 2017-04-04
    soldstatus $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,646 · $137/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,646 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,173
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$1,646
• − Insurance: −$6,018
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,774
• − Management: −$1,774
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$4,349
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,044
• After-tax cash flow: $-425/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Livingston Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201020
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -32.00%
• Median HH income: $56,755
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3811
• State rank: #13 of 98 in LA

Livability — Denham Springs

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #29
• US rank: #4939

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Livingston Parish · 87,496 people
• City population: 63,575
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• Population (ZIP): 63,575
• Household income: $78,621
• Rent vs Own: 27.0% rent · 73.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1211.0

Population outlook (Livingston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 158,511 people
• By 2030: 168,241 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 186,252 · +17.5%
• By 2050: 201,516 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 231,217 · +45.9%
• By 2100: 241,697 · +52.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Livingston

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.5) · D 15.1% · R 83.6% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.4pp toward D · 2008: -71.9pp · 2024: -68.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.5 2020: R+70.0 2016: R+72.5 2012: R+70.4 2008: R+71.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -104.37%
• Current HPI: 170.2207
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.83%
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+259.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Price Changed $179,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-06-01 Price Changed $179,900 GSREIN
• 2026-05-08 Listed $189,900 GSREIN
• 2026-05-08 Listed $189,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2017-11-10 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2017-10-06 Pending — GBRMLS
• 2017-09-14 Listed $90,000 GBRMLS
• 2017-09-13 Listed $90,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2017-04-04 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,646 · +19.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.