2037 E Kettering St · Lancaster, CA 93535

$250,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,439 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 2007 6,960 sqft lot ↓ 26% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

GREAT OPPORTUNITY! Beautiful ready to move in two story home! 4 beds, 3 full baths, with a huge backyard! Downstairs bedroom and full bathroom. Kitchen offers stainless steel appliances, new granite counter top , and opens up to the large family room w/ fireplace. New Laminated wood floor and tile. The spacious master suite showcases his and her sinks and a giant walk-in closet, ceiling fans, 3 car garage, washable interior paint, & more!.

Key facts

• 6,960 sq ft lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 2007

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Driveway; Three parking spaces (garage total 3)
• Utilities: Public/district water; Public sewer; Standard electricity; Natural gas available; Cable available; Telephone to the street
• Home design: Two-story house; Entry on main floor; No ADU
• Construction: Property listed as fixer condition; Year built source: assessor
• Exterior features: House structure; Patio present; No pool; Property has a view; Lot characterized as 0–1 unit/acre; Paved road frontage with access via city streets; Street lighting and sidewalks in the community

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Gas range; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Main floor primary bedroom; Additional main floor bedroom
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; Bathrooms include bathtub and shower; at least one has shower-in-tub
• Heating & cooling: Central furnace heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Double-pane windows; Home has two levels; Main-floor entry; Main floor includes a primary bedroom; Main level has one bathroom; Kitchen open to family room; Loft; No accessibility features specified
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area located in the garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $605 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• Recommended offer: $246k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 4.3% in Lancaster — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#282 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, amenities B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Eastside Union Elementary (suburban): math 15% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #1,226 of 1,400 in CA (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1169 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,206/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 2494% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $246,250 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.38%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $531,702
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2133 Kettering St	0.07mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,667 (+9%)	2mo	$605,000	$227	74
45116 Price Ln	0.15mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,167 (-11%)	5mo	$459,000	$212	65
45056 Price Ln	0.10mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,167 (-11%)	11mo	$479,900	$221	63
45111 25th St E Unit E	0.41mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,346 (-4%)	7mo	$288,000	$123	62
2159 E Newgrove St	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,336 (-4%)	6mo	$500,000	$214	61
44755 22nd St E	0.33mi	3/2.0	2,179 (-11%)	6mo	$411,000	$189	58
44559 Aspen St	0.53mi	4/4.0 (+1)	2,375 (-3%)	5mo	$499,000	$210	57
44641 Driftwood St	0.46mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,249 (-8%)	8mo	$490,000	$218	52
45015 Bevington	0.52mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,160 (-11%)	6mo	$500,000	$231	47
45117 Loma Vista Dr	0.59mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,160 (-11%)	7mo	$400,000	$185	43
1818 E Newgrove St	0.44mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,094 (-14%)	13mo	$475,000	$227	40
2307 E Nugent St	0.59mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,100 (-14%)	15mo	$472,000	$225	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-10,749
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $6,228
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93535

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 1169
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,206 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$512 /mo · $6,145/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$673
• Net cashflow: $605

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,440

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2141 E Nugent St Lancaster, CA	4.0	3.0	2260	$3,200	$1.42	18d	1	0.53mi
44559 Aspen St Lancaster, CA	4.0	4.0	2375	$3,495	$1.47	4d	1	0.55mi
44707 Cerisa St Lancaster, CA	4.0	2.0	1714	$3,000	$1.75	10d	1	0.62mi
2634 Avoca St Lancaster, CA	4.0	3.0	1722	$3,200	$1.86	1d	1	0.64mi
45465 25th St E Spc 10 Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1690	$825	$0.49	2d	1	0.67mi
1253 Morven St Lancaster, CA	4.0	2.0	1813	$2,995	$1.65	15d	1	0.97mi
1545 E Avenue J5 Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1741	$2,899	$1.67	1d	1	1.19mi
2739 Garnet Ln Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.5	2548	$3,100	$1.22	1d	1	1.21mi
3060 Emerald Ln Lancaster, CA	4.0	2.0	2540	$3,500	$1.38	1d	1	1.31mi
3344 E Avenue H14 Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	2032	$3,200	$1.57	2d	1	1.39mi
4364 East Avenue J6 Unit J6 Lancaster, CA	4.0	3.0	2020	$3,000	$1.49	5d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $250,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $250,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $250,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $250,000 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    remarks 158-char remark
12. 2026-06-02
    listed $250,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,145 · $512/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,145 · $512/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 21 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,471
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$6,145
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,078
• − Management: −$3,078
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable income: $3,644
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$875
• After-tax cash flow: $6,390/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eastside Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0611910
• Math proficiency: 15% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $44,840
• Composite: 21.43/100
• National rank: #13636
• State rank: #1226 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Lancaster

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #282
• US rank: #9504

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lancaster, CA
• County: Los Angeles County · 9,444,647 people
• City population: 194,251
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 79,409
• Household income: $70,360
• Rent vs Own: 33.6% rent · 66.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 2494.0

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% Two or more races 25% Black 21% White 17% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Spanish 37% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -144.13%
• Current HPI: 449.4494
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.14%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-25.6% since first listed

30 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $250,000 CRMLS
• 2018-10-26 Sold (Public Records) $325,000 Public Records
• 2018-10-26 Sold (MLS) $325,000 CRMLS
• 2018-10-26 Sold (MLS) $325,000 AVMLS
• 2018-09-27 Pending — CRMLS
• 2018-09-27 Pending — AVMLS
• 2018-09-20 Price Changed $314,999 AVMLS
• 2018-09-20 Price Changed $314,999 CRMLS
• 2018-08-21 Listed $329,999 CRMLS
• 2018-08-21 Listed $329,999 AVMLS
• 2015-03-27 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2010-12-24 Sold (MLS) $123,500 AVMLS
• 2010-06-02 Listed $164,900 AVMLS
• 2010-03-17 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2010-02-23 Price Changed $155,000 CRMLS
• 2010-01-18 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2009-10-23 Pending — CRMLS
• 2009-10-23 Price Changed $130,000 CRMLS
• 2009-07-25 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2009-06-03 Listed $79,000 CRMLS
• 2009-06-03 Listed $79,000 AVMLS
• 2009-02-25 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2009-02-20 Listed $250,000 CRMLS
• 2008-06-06 Sold (MLS) $336,000 AVMLS
• 2008-05-15 Sold (MLS) $324,990 CRMLS
• 2008-04-13 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2008-02-20 Price Changed $315,900 CRMLS
• 2007-12-01 Price Changed $349,990 CRMLS
• 2007-09-08 Listed $379,990 CRMLS
• 2007-03-13 Listed $336,000 AVMLS

Property tax history

+12.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,145 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.