238 Guy Ave NW · Concord, NC 28025

$119,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,435 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1965

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

A true piece of history, this home was originally built in the 1900s. It is in need of some love, care, and repairs. The neighborhood is centrally located, with downtown being less than a 5 minute drive. The backyard includes a screened in porch and privacy from natural growth around the edges of the yard. For sale by owner as is. Property is part of an estate and has been unoccupied for 12 months.

Key facts

• Screened in porch
• Centrally located
• Built 1965

Tags

• SCREENED IN PORCH
• PRIVACY FROM NATURAL GROWTH
• CENTRALLY LOCATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $622 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Cap rate 12.5% vs local median 3.3% in Concord — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#18 in NC, #1,595 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, commute F.
• Cabarrus County Schools (rural): math 54% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #44 of 178 in NC (top 25%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 303 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,485 units permitted in Cabarrus County in 2024 (677 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cabarrus County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.2% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $119,999

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.21%
• DSCR: 1.99
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $304,220
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
52 Fenix Dr SW	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,355 (-6%)	4mo	$207,000	$153	66
304 Cabarrus Ave W	0.25mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,476 (+3%)	9mo	$299,000	$203	63
58 Creswell Dr NE	0.67mi	2/1.0	1,399 (-2%)	5mo	$265,000	$189	60
353 Ann St NW	0.66mi	2/2.0	1,464 (+2%)	3mo	$289,000	$197	59
241 Booker Dr SW	0.68mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,460 (+2%)	3mo	$310,000	$212	54
127 Cedar Dr NW	0.31mi	2/1.0	1,231 (-14%)	10mo	$155,000	$126	54
199 Mahan St SW	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,391 (-3%)	4mo	$307,000	$221	52
109 Cypress St SW	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,229 (-14%)	7mo	$290,000	$236	40
359 Ann St NW	0.68mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (+12%)	0mo	$335,000	$208	39
293 Misenheimer Dr NW #42	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,308 (-9%)	9mo	$287,000	$219	35
269 Misenheimer Dr NW	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,234 (-14%)	1mo	$283,000	$229	33
279 Melrose Dr SW	0.75mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,232 (-14%)	8mo	$280,000	$227	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.23% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $20,585
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.10×
• Total profit: $70,657
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28025

• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 303
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,789 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$112 /mo · $1,344/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
• Net cashflow: $622

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,002

Max offer price $119,999

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
204 Corban Ave SW Concord, NC	3.0	2.0	1487	$1,600	$1.08	1d	1	0.28mi
23 Market St SW Concord, NC	2.0	1.0–2.0	940	$2,470	$2.63	10d	118	0.53mi
337 Pecan Ct SW Concord, NC	3.0	2.0	1254	$1,610	$1.28	12d	1	0.58mi
6 Meadowview Ave SW Concord, NC	3.0	2.0	1176	$1,750	$1.49	12d	1	0.66mi
393 Kerr St NW Concord, NC	1.0	1.0	1050	$650	$0.62	23d	1	0.73mi
100 Ash Ave NW Concord, NC	3.0	2.0	1170	$1,845	$1.58	4d	1	0.74mi
228 Tournament Dr SW Concord, NC	3.0	2.0	1161	$1,650	$1.42	20d	1	0.74mi
116 Cabarrus Ave E Concord, NC	3.0	1.0	1495	$2,300	$1.54	3d	1	0.82mi
1 Buffalo Ave NW Concord, NC	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.0	1179	$1,200	$1.02	10d	6	0.82mi
435 Saint James St NW Concord, NC	1.0	1.0	1376	$790	$0.57	23d	1	0.85mi
193 Freeze Ave NW Concord, NC	1.0	1.0	1378	$665	$0.48	23d	1	0.86mi
283 Houston St NE Concord, NC	3.0	2.0	1176	$1,702	$1.45	17d	1	0.92mi
71 Woodsdale Pl SE Concord, NC	3.0	2.5	1315	$1,900	$1.44	4d	1	0.92mi
393 Church St N Unit 1 Concord, NC	3.0	3.0	1370	$1,950	$1.42	23d	1	0.99mi
13 Douglas Ave NW Concord, NC	2.0	1.0	980	$1,650	$1.68	23d	1	1.00mi
219 Green Dr SW Concord, NC	3.0	2.0	1278	$1,900	$1.49	4d	1	1.13mi
219 Green Dr SW Concord, NC	3.0	2.0	1278	$1,900	$1.49	2d	1	1.13mi
83 American Ave NE Unit 83 Concord, NC	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,350	$1.17	23d	1	1.14mi
25 Todd Dr NE Concord, NC	2.0	2.0	936	$1,650	$1.76	23d	1	1.27mi
260 Brookwood Ave NE Unit 1E Concord, NC	2.0	1.5	940	$1,350	$1.44	12d	1	1.37mi
641 Central Dr NW Concord, NC	3.0	2.0	1601	$2,295	$1.43	23d	1	1.38mi
538 Hillandale St NE Concord, NC	2.0	1.0	915	$1,350	$1.48	4d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-05-12
   listed $119,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,344 · $112/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,344 · $112/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 20% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,466
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,344
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,717
• − Management: −$1,717
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $5,875
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,410
• After-tax cash flow: $6,053/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cabarrus County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700530
• Math proficiency: 54% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,442
• Composite: 47.42/100
• National rank: #2282
• State rank: #44 of 178 in NC

Livability — Concord

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #18
• US rank: #1595

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Concord, NC
• County: Cabarrus County · 218,793 people
• City population: 140,106
• Metro: Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC
• Population (ZIP): 58,334
• Household income: $79,545
• Rent vs Own: 30.9% rent · 69.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1852.0

Population outlook (Cabarrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 239,273 people
• By 2030: 260,754 · +9.0%
• By 2040: 303,953 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 344,827 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 435,623 · +82.1%
• By 2100: 490,119 · +104.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Cabarrus

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.7) · D 45.5% · R 53.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.7pp toward D · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -7.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.7 2020: R+9.4 2016: R+20.0 2012: R+20.2 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -282.07%
• Current HPI: 258.1615
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.23%
• Metro: Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — FSBO.com
• 2026-05-12 Listed $119,999 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,344 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.